wxsniss

A tic warmer with biggest ramifications for sCT/seMA... still a good thump for pike region and north. Relative to this 12z Euro, 10am NWS map is anticipating maybe another tic or 2 north

Lots of distractions from weather this morning, just catching up HREF actually colder fwiw UKIE a touch warmer for south CT / southeast MA, but otherwise more amped. Glad to see the dry trend from last night reversing

Agree it's a tempting time for China to act. Add to that the US is internally more polarized and lost than it has been in generations, 30T in debt, Fed out of stimulus bullets with growing inflation. Weak leadership. I suspect Iran will inevitably be an interrelated thread. The Vienna deal negotiators are desperately hoping to sign will, imho, pretty much ensure they are a nuclear threshold state at the very least and will violently destabilize the mideast. Russia has boots on the ground in Syria, China is importing record amounts of oil from Iran, and all have interest in distracting the US with another mideast war.

China and Iran watching this very closely They don't share the same immediate goals --- Russia renewed superpower status and territory and clout in eastern Europe, China control over Taiwan, Iran possessing nukes --- they share resistance to these goals in the West. If these 3 are not formally colluding at the moment, that will likely change in the years ahead. And for worthy reasons of globalization and economic growth, we've crippled ourselves by outsourcing our energy (more so Europe), the chips that power everything, and most goods we use.

0z Euro a tick (~10 miles) warmer and further north compared to 12z

Sorry… it’s the 0z HREF: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

0z HREF fwiw

Did Harv get bumped by Putin? Missed the broadcast His 10:30pm web video continued with 8-12/4-8 flanking the pike, which seems reasonable for now given the 0z NAM holding stubborn

Agree. So far, this seems like our typical SWFE NW tics but not a large-scale cave to the NAM (e.g. dropping pike to 4-6", sleet to NH border)

Not surprising and why the buffer we built today was key

0z GFS did tick warmer but sensible impacts not much different from 18z/12z Still a big hit for pike region GFS loving the parting fluff at the end Russians ticking west

re: 0z RGEM... it's almost identical to 12z... 18z was the colder oscillation ie., not sure I'd read 0z RGEM as a significant trend vs. noise

Biggest impact of 0z RGEM tick warmer is to southern CT/ southeast MA areas Still not in NAM's camp synoptically Look at 12z Friday as a benchmark: NAM has primary low deeper and almost to Lake Ontario... Euro/GFS/RGEM/CMC have it weaker and in PA

This is literally NAM vs. all other guidance, mesos and globals 12z-18z trends otherwise were all in favor of colder... still this might give Harv pause in expanding the 8-12" south tonight

0z NAM... something in between a "tick" and the "big jump" we're all waiting to see Still holds on to the primary longer than the rest

Not many can say that. All guidance this afternoon trended colder (except 12z UK which was the coldest extreme at 0z). Unless we get surprises at 0z, it's likely both Harv and NWS will expand the 8-12" further south. And spots 12-18" may start appearing along and north of pike, especially interior east.

Just saw this... love the contrast with an impending WSW: NWS Boston@NWSBoston·3hRECORD 2/23 HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN! Worcester: 65°F (prev 64°F in 2017) Boston:69°F (prev 68°F in 2017) Hartford: 71°F (prev 68°F in 1990) Providence:67°F (prev 66°F in 2017) Official daily high temperatures will be noted in our evening/overnight climate products.

There it is. I was anticipating spots 12-18" appearing along/north of pike, but figured they weren't confident yet on location

Much better run for SCT/SEMA folks Has been nearly identical for pike region for 5+ runs now Also has been consistent with a closing 1-2" 21z-3z

Harv ticked colder for central MA... this map looks very reasonable and anticipates some north ticks... but if there's more support for 12zEuro/18zRGEM, I imagine he'd expand the 8-12 even further south:

Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum:

Agree A tick south and still synoptically has that vort max further north than other guidance. Not yet the cave that other guidance supports.

Not as big a jump as expected from confluence, but a definite trend south Still on the much warmer end of the spectrum Good hit for SNH

18z NAM big jump south... no surprise As the anomaly in this setup, it was useless

12z Euro crushes pike region Even colder than 0z, let alone 6z Fair to say NAM warm runs are the anomaly