wxsniss

0z NAM... something in between a "tick" and the "big jump" we're all waiting to see Still holds on to the primary longer than the rest

Not many can say that. All guidance this afternoon trended colder (except 12z UK which was the coldest extreme at 0z). Unless we get surprises at 0z, it's likely both Harv and NWS will expand the 8-12" further south. And spots 12-18" may start appearing along and north of pike, especially interior east.

Just saw this... love the contrast with an impending WSW: NWS Boston@NWSBoston·3hRECORD 2/23 HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN! Worcester: 65°F (prev 64°F in 2017) Boston:69°F (prev 68°F in 2017) Hartford: 71°F (prev 68°F in 1990) Providence:67°F (prev 66°F in 2017) Official daily high temperatures will be noted in our evening/overnight climate products.

There it is. I was anticipating spots 12-18" appearing along/north of pike, but figured they weren't confident yet on location

Much better run for SCT/SEMA folks Has been nearly identical for pike region for 5+ runs now Also has been consistent with a closing 1-2" 21z-3z

Harv ticked colder for central MA... this map looks very reasonable and anticipates some north ticks... but if there's more support for 12zEuro/18zRGEM, I imagine he'd expand the 8-12 even further south:

Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum:

Agree A tick south and still synoptically has that vort max further north than other guidance. Not yet the cave that other guidance supports.

Not as big a jump as expected from confluence, but a definite trend south Still on the much warmer end of the spectrum Good hit for SNH

18z NAM big jump south... no surprise As the anomaly in this setup, it was useless

12z Euro crushes pike region Even colder than 0z, let alone 6z Fair to say NAM warm runs are the anomaly

12z UK more or less held, maybe a hair warmer in southern zones / within noise, but it was on the colder extreme at 0z

12z GFS ticking colder

0z Euro steady, maybe ~10 miles tic north compared to 12z Euro, within noise Pretty remarkable consensus and consistency for ~2.5 days away... unusual for this otherwise wacky season

Harv was pretty bullish earlier... sleet maybe at most to pike, otherwise mostly snow, 8" line through Boston

Yeah NAM definitely coming south a good chunk You could say it's NAM caving given that it was alone and northernmost, but NAM still not in dependable range anyway

Not one of our higher-stakes nail-biting KU's, but kind of nice to have a relatively stress-free leadup for a change. And (I added above): eastern zones may see an addition 1-2" after 7pm Also as Tip just posted: arguably worse impact of IP/ZR and freezeover in southern zones

Opening bid from NWS... pretty strong guidance support for this Eastern zones may pick up an additional 1-2" on top of this 7-7pm map Nice widespread event, it's been a while...

Impressive 2 minutes... rivals rates we saw during that WAA ~1:30am Dec 17, 2020 Looks like it dissipated a bit once inside 495 Love seeing streetlights turn on from preceding darkness

Warning up between 495 and 95

Was wondering same, but just saw this AFD update: 340pm update... still doing "nowcasting" of the band of snow showers. It does appear it is weakening as it`s now getting into the CT River Valley, but that could be an artifact of radar coverage since our radar beams are highest above the ground in that part of the area - so we don`t have good sampling of the lowest few thousand feet where all the action is. Still locally brief heavy snow producing low visibilities for a few minutes and that is expected to be the case for the next hour or so as it moves east. Latest HRRR still shows the band stays together at it reaches the coast, so we can`t totally write it off at this point. Just might not be strong enough to warrant Snow Squall Warnings, but still will produce some briefly difficult driving conditions.

Sun is out through cloud breaks in Boston area, let's see if we can maintain/boost instability as the band progresses east

On hires models, echoes appear to intensify significantly as soon as band moves off coast… why is that? Steeper lapse rates?

A decent tic up 700 fronto is delivering at the moment