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wxsniss

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Everything posted by wxsniss

  1. wxsniss
    There it is... 0z Euro is starting to cave... can see a transfer by 12z Sat
  2. wxsniss
    I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long. So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.
  3. wxsniss
    Portrait of a decaying system The best dynamics never made it further northeast. For most of eastern MA, aside from that first hour last night, pretty meager rates and snowgrowth everywhere. Compounded by warming temps since 12z today, this had no chance even with northern stream infusion this afternoon. I can't find a single forecast (including stereotypically conservative forecasters like Dave Epstein) that had 0-2" for northeastern half of MA.
  4. wxsniss
    Haven't looked carefully to decipher it, but there must be some impact of having this current system pass on the upcoming confluence. Maybe trends tonight (beginning with this 18z GFS we hope) will reflect that.
  5. wxsniss
    Ironically, one of the rare instances when Dave Epstein put out a forecast that was not conservative, and that too busted
  6. wxsniss
    Disappointing for sure. I thought this event would surely top Feb 23. Kudos to Boston metro schools for not simply using the surplus of unspent school days Do we get a single warning event this year...
  7. wxsniss
    Best rates were in the first hour 1-2am... but for the most part dry air and poor snowgrowth quickly turned this into an under-performer for eastern Mass overnight The best dynamics simply did not survive this far northeast compared to CT I wonder how qpf compares to the robust mesos yesterday And for the rest of the day... mesos aren't giving me confidence that we see rates sufficient to overcome temps currently above freezing past 495 belt
  8. wxsniss
    Wetbulbed a bit too, now 29/26 Mesos tempered a bit but still think we see >4” Your elevation will help
  9. wxsniss
    ...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run
  10. wxsniss
    0z Euro is congrats Montreal... its northernmost run yet Maybe this storm will be remembered for how the CMC scored an astonishing upset?
  11. wxsniss
    First flakes Brookline ~1am Took a while to overcome dry lower levels 31/27
  12. wxsniss
    Where is it snowing?
  13. wxsniss
    Let's hope so. Will be a nowcast. With guidance trends at 18z, BL temps seem to be the main reason we don't have more widespread WSW east of ORH.
  14. wxsniss
    18z GFS as others have said... No longer just a blip on a few mesos... GFS also a tick colder in latter part of storm, BL temps will be critical for eastern areas
  15. wxsniss
    There's definite hint of that on mesos... we discussed this last night... I think a key ingredient seems to be a late-game bit of infusion of northern stream energy
  16. wxsniss
    Wow... (18z 3k NAM)
  17. wxsniss
    Another bump up following good trends this afternoon...
  18. wxsniss
    Box following high-res guidance with more widespread 6-8...
  19. wxsniss
    Mesos leading the comeback here at 12z... that was a big boost up by Euro across CT/western MA. If mesos have any clue, that boost will propagate eastward in guidance tonight.
  20. wxsniss
    Mesos showing a boost to eastern SNE as a bit of northern stream energy infuses in at the end... If we didn't have potential BL issues with not the strong rates during the day Tuesday, I'd be more confident in more widespread 3-6 / 4-8
  21. wxsniss
    12z HREF continues robust... very similar to 0z I posted last night
  22. wxsniss
    0z Euro finds the sweet spot... slowly deamplifies as it shunts east, but a nice hit for much of NE, a tick south of 12z run
  23. wxsniss
    Let's hope it's on to something. It's the most robust at the moment. My guess is the higher 4-8" totals east rely on some northern stream infusion after ~15z Tuesday... you can see rates pulse back up for a few hours at the end. Unfortunately we'll be struggling with temps then too. We're scrapping for crumbs this season.
  24. wxsniss
    0z HREF... wish it were reliable Really keeps the stuff in eSNE going most of Tuesday
  25. wxsniss
    Big tick NW following the OP... Would be nice for many if this remained fixed as is... Both panels from 12z EPS (138 hrs, 144 hrs)
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