wxsniss

Totally agree about fast zonal flow generally mitigating threats, and looking at H5 you'd think this has more likelihood of trending progressive or sheared if anything. Most on here don't take these D6 tracks literally or with any strong confidence. But a strong vort max can itself buckle the flow. And seeing this signal on multiple runs of all the main globals (Euro, GFS, GGEM) gets my attention. I have little confidence in track, but I think this is the most promising signal we've had for a storm so far this season, whether it is OTS or not. Personally I'll be at a conference in CA next weekend, but I'm rooting for our hood (as well as a little playoff snow magic of yore).

FYP Simply put, Jan 13-14 has the best cross-model signal for a big one I've seen so far this winter... And regardless of how that specific storm unfolds, the stout PNA on GEFS after Jan 20 (great longterm outlook Ray) might be enough to pull me out of hibernating lurker mode... fantastic teleconnection discussions all.

Hey New Englanders, TIA for any tips... Planning a ski trip for my wife and I for MLK weekend and thought some of you might have good tips. My wife is a 1-time skiing beginner = she will get bored repeating a carpet lift run, but she is nervous about the quantum leap to a Green trail and is looking for a very wide, easy Green to build her confidence. We are debating Stowe vs. Stratton vs. anywhere else in NH/VT with at least 1-2 very wide easy Greens and a nice ski village feel. Other concern is crowds and lines on MLK weekend. At Stowe, Spruce Peak seems to have several nice wide trails: Inspiration, Easy Street as a step above carpet lift trails. Concern is the 3.5-4 hr drive, and no reasonably priced lodging immediately at base. However, lodging 15 min drive away in the town of Stowe seems nice and reasonably priced. Any tips on driving from Boston and where to stay? Stratton is reputed to be good for beginners, but it's not obvious which trails are truly wide and easy. Also, I have read the crowds are terrible on holiday weekends. And prices are exorbitant for lodging at base. Any rec's to share from these or other mountains that might be good for beginners? Thanks!

Latest PNS, impressive if this is Logan: Boston 2.7 1202 AM 11/16 General Public And even more impressive... is this real? Scituate 7.8 1106 PM 11/15 Broadcast Media

Rare to get an over-performer DC to Bos, let alone in November 2-4" Boston metro inside 128 / 4-8" interior MA held up pretty well, and clearly too low in a few spots... frankly I'm most surprised by the totals right on the water. We did great here, but relatively to what guidance showed, I think the biggest overperformance was Philly-NYC. Some Memento tattoos to write from the storm: - GFS was horrible. Even 12z today hours before onset was a joke. Completely ignorable. - Euro / RGEM / NAM were very good with this, wild snow maps notwithstanding, but even those wild maps were closer to truth than the dry runs. The consensus for a bigger hit was pretty good yesterday, the cooling trends at H8-H7 were steady, the anomalous cold and well-placed high were there, the QPF was never in doubt, the 5z-6z time of flip was accurate... this was actually a well modeled storm. And as I commented last night, I think the calendar month + the dry GFS were keeping people gunshy. - advance of the CF was one of the more uncertain aspects of this, and Euro did better than RGEM

SNE FTMFW!

Ripping! Going out for a weenie walk. Brookline back down to 31/31! Either that 36 was spurious or the CF is fluctuating.

You're right Incorrectly reported on WeatherBug for airport Jay SBosWx reported rain some 30 min so it's flirting

Heavy echoes overhead but CF is advancing... Logan 35 rain, Brookline Village jumped up to 36/36 in past 30 min Great rates nonetheless

Just got home... it's incredible out there! Will go out for measurements soon. CF watch: definite difference driving across Boston city proper comparing MGH / West End area vs. Coolidge Corner: a wetter snow out by MGH / West End, decent flake size but has that look like it's thinking about making a switch. A dryer snow and better accumulation here in Brookline 31/31. The next heavy band may help stave that advance. FWIW, 0z NAM has most of eastern MA still snow at 6z, the flip delayed to 7z

Main thing I'd be concerned about is E13 wind report at KBOS... otherwise I'd think those surface temps should drop pretty quickly once snow arrives We should see flakes imminently

Flakes started flying ~6:40 in Providence per traffic cams Matches well with leading edge on KBOX

Early indication of CF, based on temps and NNE/E wind boundary... this will no doubt fluctuate as we go through the night

There was some concern the frontogenesis might be weakening as it enters SNE (see Box AFD) regardless of upstream obs, and 12z suite uniformly trended more dry... had 18z RGEM continued that trend, I'd worry about the widespread 4-8"... "last-minute adjustments" is a better way to put it, but no evidence for any changes from what I've seen

18z RGEM looks about same as 12z... 4z timeframe maybe even a tick heavier and colder... sleet advances through Boston metro by 5z-6z, to pike in general by 6z, to NH border by 7-8z I think no evidence for drastic last-minute changes

A nice memory Jerry You're missed back here, and every drive to Chestnut Hill captures just how much better your climo is. You're more comfortably in the 2-4" range than me, but I think that range will work out for most areas away from water. I also think you and out to Rt128 have a shot at > 4" if we can stave off the coastal front. Glanced at 12z Euro... it does hiccup on occasion, but NAM / RGEM also trended a bit more dry. Upstream obs and radar appear more gungho to me, so overall no reason to make any drastic changes. 18z NAM coming in, looks pretty similar to 12z. 700-800mb switchover occurs near 6z. The big question for us is where a coastal front sets up and how quickly it invades. This will be a good event to hone skills in interpreting wind directions. Currently Fenway 34/22 vs. Brookline Village 30/18 vs. ORH 25/7... this event could similarly vacillate around the BU Bridge for some time. I see no reason to change from 2-4" Boston metro, 4-8" most of the interior

Box upped map significantly, matching the majority of more bullish guidance (and discussions here!)

I think some spots northern MA have a shot. Euro has been steady with that area north of Worcester to NH border and another jack western MA. I'm expecting sleet changeover in Boston metro - pike region around 12am (areas close to water contending with coastal front may get slop sooner, but I see that as a different process from the sleet line), and closer to NH border flips by 3-4am. Heaviest rates of mostly snow in Boston metro 10pm-12am.

Box AFD has sloppy coating-2" at Logan, 2-4" in western parts of Boston... good range and what we've been saying all along. For interior MA 4-8". Rays map is solid. Good model support for this, with GFS being on the dry end.

Nice Euro run! Maybe a tick colder especially in northeast MA into Boston metro through 6z Continues near or above warning level snows through most of SNE, with > 1" qpf total It seems to hold off coastal front intrusion for longer, and flip to sleet in Boston metro comes after 5z Verbatim this run looks like a 3-6" in Boston metro inside 128, > 6" for most of interior

0z RGEM looks not as wild qpf-wise as previous runs, timing of warmth about the same flips 5z-6z

We're cooling nicely region-wide (not meaning to exclude people, had to zoom in to get more stations)

For Boston metro, Box AFD putting lots of attention to a coastal front (in addition to the incoming warmth aloft we've extensively discussed)... the meso models variably hint at it encroaching 4z-5z before the warmth aloft arrives... another big variable adding uncertainty... could impact whether Boston metro sees 1-2" vs. 2-4". And as already discussed, this definitely could be a Logan 1" slop / western burbs 2-4" deal. In any case, NNE vs. E surface winds will also have to be watched as this unfolds. The surface high will help at least for the first few hours.

I had to go back and look up the synoptics... you're right 12/16/07 had a slightly more wedged in high over Maine, but not different by much. I honestly think we here / NWS etc are hesitant to believe the bullish guidance in part because we're looking at the calendar. And GFS is consistently meh'ing this. Will be a fun 0z suite tonight. Meanwhile, the 17z run of the Euro looks steady.

That's really impressive, and still hard to buy verbatim. NWS certainly is not... yet... despite the supporting consensus NAM + Euro + RGEM within 36-48 hours And a reminder to those not familiar, this map above does not include ice. That map would be warning for most of SNE. 0z-4z looking solid for SNE... 4z-5z-6z looks close especially within few miles of coast, but nice to see the razor margin we had last night hold or even widen as we get closer.