wxsniss

Upstream obs... Philly area was getting 40-50+ dBZ, heavy snow WAA thump will rock tonight... might take some creative sleep strategies to be up for the best of it

6z HRRR steady as she goes, slightly more robust than 0z HRRR... 6z NAM same Widespread 10-16" most of SNE, spots higher CF gets to just barely past Boston

Better for much of SNE More uniform... maybe better warm conveyor belt into MA, less robbing from that convective blob, and as a result more uniform spread between the WAA and midlevel banding

The issue we were talking about yesterday... that next-in-line shortwave digging more is interfering and de-amplifying our trough You can see it's less an issue on the 12z NAM

Yep... while ptype and dryslot issues starting to creep into southeast MA Great banding signature to MA/NH border Ukie and NAM now more alike than Euro

Yeah this is not done trending... 6z NAM looks even more amped and further NW than 0z

Yeah you might guess the shortwave got shredded on approach if you just looked at the QPF maps, but it's definitely better than 12z

This is a much better solution than 12z for SNE than the QPF maps would suggest

H5 closed already at hr 54... this is a big jump NW

Thru 48 already looking better Better looking shortwave Downstream ridging is better Better spacing from upstream shortwave This will be tucked more NW

Thru 36h better digging trough and downstream ridging Watching the following energy over Saskatchewan... it's digging a little more than 18z, may not make any difference but we want that to remain flat and inconsequential... that's the piece that muffed a better SNE hit on today's12z Euro

Huge hit well into NH and VT

Crazy weekend at work but lurking... 0z NAM way further west and the H5 changes were apparent as early as 24 hours... significantly more amped than 18z NAM and Euro Whether this represents new sampling off Pacific vs. NAM in laughable range remains TBD... maybe only takehome point is further lack of support for GFS

I and probably eveyone was too exhausted to do a post-analysis... thought I'd toss up some tired and probably incomplete impressions. I went back through model runs in the 48 hour leadup and compared to the obs map above. Thought this was a clear NAM winner. Feel like it's had a good season. Very clear banding signatures that happened. Euro was good too. The old EE rule and ignoring all the other model noise would have given us the best handle of this particular storm. Most guidance wanted to jackpot southeast MA, but between mid-level processes generating bands further northwest and initial boundary layer issues southeast, jackpot ended up in the 495 corridor and extended further north than most expected. RGEM was spastic and more wrong than right. GFS was a national embarrassment, pretty much ignorable. Ok with SLP track, but qpf depictions and thermals were a joke.

Per usual, an anomaly compared to every surrounding site. I'd expect most sites in the immediate metro area (Chelsea, Revere, Hyde Park, South Boston) near 15" after that 5-7pm band. Some other nearby reports: Somerville 19.9 733 PM 3/13 Social Media Revere 15.0 632 PM 3/13

Just returned from a weenie walk around Coolidge Corner... AWT that band did not disappoint! Beautiful out there! Judging from rate of accumulation of freshly plowed pavement, that band reached rates 2" / hr. Amazingly fluffy snow, and notable lack of strong winds. I think we and Boston metro area end up 15-18" when all is said and done.

Nice from Box... this is a healthy and slow band, 1-2" / hr incoming for Boston metro folks... this should get everyone into the 15-20" range:

Finally for Fella / SR Airglo / SBosWx and others in Boston metro... it's been like watching paint dry for improvement in flake size for past hour but we are finally tasting the edge of the meat... she's fading but there are solid 30+ dbz returns... at the rate it's moving, this looks healthy for next 1-1.5 hours at least H7 fronto:

And quickly. You can see how quickly roads get covered after they get plowed. Helps that we cooled to upper 20s too.

Agree... just probably more out between 128-495

18z RAP run gave Boston area another 4-6"... that band, though less robust, looks decent and will deliver. Intensity and flakes already improving. When all is said and done Boston area will probably end up 11-15"... nothing to complain about... is great by Sunday's expectations, and only by yesterday's 20"+ runs does it seem like a bust

Remnants of mega band have breached 495 wall... ticking east... I think by 4pm Boston area will be singing a different tune

Probably does not include the Worcester area post-deathband

We lost at least 6"... We'll still pass a foot in Boston... those bands gotta exit somehow