wxsniss

0z Euro southeast by a good amount... warning limited to Cape, advisory southeastern 1/2 of SNE

There really is tons of convection blowing up over southeast PA heading northeast... that would be a great sign... problem is how much this stuff circled below yanks everything east Greatest pressure falls are also by SEPA / NJ... not much and those can jump around but if we can continue that, we may have something going...

The main post-mortem reasons were there from the beginning: - flat H5 with barely a kink in the flow - diffuse piecemeal vorticity that never really consolidates The 18z models Thurs showed how it could possibly all work out, and we’ve been selectively looking to corroborate that since... Another wishful WV watch (I remember Tip mocking us for some late night vigils we held with Messenger hoping for satellite / radar trends that never materialized). Sometimes they do pay off. I criticize myself for getting swept in the groupthink... like “convective feedback”, we collectively chase overconfident posts and go down a track that might be wrong. To be fair, lots of maps out there may bust high including NWS. And overall pretty piss poor performance by all guidance, ensembles to short term hi res models.

There’s not a single bit of evidence or guidance at this point that this is ramping up... Yeah this feels like a classic Messenger fade-away event, RIP Diffuse and piecemeal vorticity, plus a relatively flat H5... it was a gamble to expect that this would surprise and consolidate north, based on yesterday’s 18z-0z suite showing “its possible!” So we latched on, but everything has been trending worst since then 18z Euro was still a decent event with warning all of southeast MA... not a good performance as it looks now

Yeah I liked your map. I’ve been hedging around a 4-8/6-12 Boston south all day so went with 5-10. It’s pretty much a Euro/GFS blend with some recognition of mid level features. I’ll be nervous for both of us... I think we know by 1-2am tnite where this is headed. If this tugs east, the western zones and maybe even northeast MA may bust too high. Hopefully this goes ballistic and I’ll gladly bust low.

ORH I put in 4-7"... I definitely could bust low (and get discontinuous snowfall gradients in subsidence areas) if a strong deformation band forms and drops anchor

Some crap free PaintBrush program... started using it on the Wed event... figured I'm spending so much time analyzing and predicting and commenting, I might as well toss up a map.

I'd love for that to happen... but gun to head, I'm still not confident enough of that. WV looks good but lots of guidance has that current energy tugging east or remaining really scattered. Awesome nowcast event.

My thoughts... tough forecast, we're watching a vorticity mosh pit try to clarify in a dominant direction... next 6 hours of nowcast will tell all... and with H7 closing I went more bullish NW compared to most guidance...

High bust potential with this either way. This is a nowcast event if there ever was one. A big driver of the event is buckshot small pieces of vorticity, and everything depends on how these consolidate and track overnight. IMO (and I've been staring at this on off since Jimmy's post this morning), nothing glaring in current water vapor to indicate which way yet, but the next few hours are critical. There's no obvious intense convection far east (purple circle below), and most of the activity is over NC/VA which is good (2 black circles below). But it's really the next 8 hours that are critical. In the big hits last night, activity in the left black circle dominated and the right black circle kind of diminished or circled north. In the more east hits, activity in the right black circle persists and tracks further east.

Can't see H7 Verbatim qpf (to compare to 12z, ticked less further NW but more southeast MA to Cape): 6"-12" just south of Boston to RI border to canal 12"+ canal and northern Cape

18z Euro about same as 12z, ramped up for coastal areas / Cape

I think at this point we would like to see less organized activity off of NC in favor of the energy inland emerging from TN... the activity currently off NC is what would tug this east Our main show surface low develops of VA/NC around 4z-5z tonight

Funny I've intermittently been doing the same... and trying to decipher upstream signs that this is gonna go one way or another. James gets bashed alot (often appropriately), but I'll give him credit for reminding me to look earlier this morning. I totally agree... mesos have been emphasizing the stuff emerging from NC, but the stuff over Tennessee valley looks much more robust. Critical water vapor window I think might be ~ 5z-6z Saturday to get a better idea of where this is going. If the best activity is just off of Delaware, we are in business. If it's way off the coast, we get tugged more east.

QPF may not have improved much, but vorticity is more consolidated, better kink at H5, and closes off at H7 Take home: the trend towards an eastern fade on some 6z-12z guidance has stopped

12z Euro / GFS actually pretty close Consensus for 6-12 northeast MA down to CT/RI border, 4-8 Worcester east and most of CT

Euro / GFS blend ftw? Lends credence to the meso's /hi-res models getting a little confused by the buckshot diffuse vorticity

Not even looking at qpf... vorticity is more consolidated and tucked... this is a better look for sure

Yeah I posted his sub Wankum's 11pm forecast... 1-3 / 3-6 straddling Boston. Looked like a very conservative forecast after the 18z-0z party, but maybe he'll get the last laugh. This is not an easy one.

This is a really tough forecast. A ramp up or a Messenger-fade both seem possible, and I'm really not confident in one way or the other. Vorticity is buckshot diffuse and models are not handling it well. Overall H5 setup kind of favors Messenger-style fade, but we do have a digging kink. I think 4-8" Boston southeast / 3-6" northwest is a good starting point.

Sorry, a more amped version like he alluded to Basically 4-8 eastern 1/3 of SNE, as a starting point

We need to over-react less to each model run... and I should not have used the descriptor "huge", that was a mistake. Jerry's right RGEM has been terrible this year, so I wouldn't over-react to that alone. I like Ray's map as a starting point. It has good support from Euro which has been steady outside of the 18z pan-model jail break. I still could see this amping more... just needs vorticity to consolidate better rather than shunting east, something that the models don't seem to have a good handle on and will come down to nowcasting later today.

I never took the 6z RGEM run seriously, totally coked out starting point 12z RGEM settled on a 4-8" across most of eastern SNE, still a big hit and consistent with Euro

Don't have totals yet but I'm eyeballing 4-8" for eastern SNE Question is does this trend continue, and I don't think that's unrealistic... the vorticity is kind of buckshot diffuse, and I think alot of this will come down to nowcasting this evening

12z RGEM definitely not as coked out as 6z, but still a big hit (i.e., warning) for eastern SNE... 12z on right Trend so far at 12z has been to tug this further east...