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wxsniss

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Everything posted by wxsniss

  1. 6z NAM actually a tic west and warmer than 0z, also maybe a hair faster exit... better for NNE folks, not as good for eastern SNE Still would support a sloppy 2-4" to Boston metro Spots of 20+ in NH, ME
  2. Let's revisit 7pm tomorrow to see if the changeover has not happened in Boston metro. Haven't seen anyone here tonight say they are expecting the 10:1 snow maps. Likewise, surely you're not claiming the SV maps you posted with 2-4" in ORH is likely.
  3. Agree, the literal clown maps aren't happening with this antecedent airmass (unless of course this continues to trend east / slower exit). But I'm increasingly confident in 3-6" for Boston metro. Was also thinking earlier about Ray's map that northeast MA could be underdone if exit is prolonged.
  4. Also the dryslot issues 18z-0z seen on earlier runs are gone... 18z and 0z shown here:
  5. One reason for bigger totals in eastern SNE is slower exit
  6. Crushing into BOS metro on 0z Euro Jerry will like this at his next pee stop
  7. Oh absolutely, if we're talking a stretch of weather... Feb 15 no comparison, probably not again in our lifetime. But for a single storm... Feb 15 blizzard is up there, but still did not match the sheer extreme conditions I witnessed Apr 97 and Jan 05
  8. Yeah there are several in contention for #3 including Feb 14-15 2015, Mar 13 2018 But I have footage from Jan 05 that I have never witnessed since... near hurricane force winds hard to stay upright + whiteout in Fenway and Harvard Square, single digit temps... it was unreal. I only wish I had footage from April 97... the awe of an earlier changeover in the afternoon, hours of thundersnow at night.
  9. That is the funniest thing I've seen in a while here... might even make non-weatherbuffs laugh
  10. ...and downstream track ticked southeast. Not sure if any merit until more supporting evidence. EDIT: scratch that, nearly identical location by 21z Sat
  11. 4z RAP vs. 0z NAM continues with less stream interaction comparing at Sat 6z timepoint
  12. 3z HRRR SLP track looks a good bit south of 0z NAM track, probably part of why the changeover happens hours earlier in Boston metro
  13. Fwiw: 3z RAP vs. 0z NAM for Sat 3z-6z Timepoints: RAP has less H5 N/S stream interaction than NAM
  14. That's a very good map regionwide, and agree with 1-3/3-6 straddling Boston metro
  15. It's pretty close overall... within range of noise Might also be a tic slower
  16. 0z NAM thru 21 hours... colder profiles for eastern SNE interests, definite tic east
  17. I saw it on boston.com lol... originally posted on their twitter. Yeah I think I've seen it 1 or 2 times before, so I don't think it's generated for most storms. And obviously not written in stone. Will be a fun afternoon nowcasting!
  18. Some NWS maps in case you missed them For Boston metro, flipping an hour sooner/exiting an hour later would be how we can get to 4”+ Some things to watch at 0z, and there was a hint of slower exit on some guidance today
  19. All while maintaining dynamics... We were able to thread that needle on some guidance early Thursday. These details still in flux. At the moment I think 2-5" is definitely doable Boston metrowest to 128, coating to 3" southeast.
  20. 18z RGEM ticked east, still crazy warm, rain throughout most of SNE
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