wxsniss

Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

0z Euro trough digs too little too late, results in a scraper As much weight as another ensemble member this far out, especially given track record this season

Ray and others alluded to this... there are definite resemblances... (this is not a forecast, tons of lead time, but this definitely has this level of potential):

The rest of the EPS series... this is a really good look this far out...

Yeah Obviously tons of details tbd, especially thermals, but strong support for a big system. And not seeing the degree of wave spacing cluster look that has bungled other systems this season

Not a bad look

Euro is struggling with this... not that it is within range, but still a sizable jump at 0z (vs. 12z), at least at surface towards GFS What a season that GFS appears more steady (and trusted?) than EC Good consensus with GEFS and EPS for a big system

Great show Not quite the masterpiece that was Breaking Bad / Better Call Saul, but still extremely good. Give Succession a try... get past the insufferable Manhattan finance culture for an episode and you quickly get hooked. The character development and drama is fantastic and just won some Golden Globes.

Great to hear! Might be hard for people who have never raised a dog to understand... I had the joy of growing up with a dog for 18 years... was a member of the family.

Euro looking good I like this potential

In like a wall, great flakes Ground white in 3 min

Euro OP is 0/2 EPS say 2/2 not off the table Best signal yet for Fri: Mon:

Yeah I’m watching that, looks healthy and should arrive ~3 May re-whiten with 0.5”+

Definitely better than the op run for us. Seems more promising than the Thurs system from this far but obviously can change.

Call Roger

Hey Tip where do you get historic storm maps like this? I’ve looked all around the NCEI site and can’t find it. TIA

Yeah was thinking last night we should have been more tipped off by the realtime obs of an overproducer in KY/WV. I'm faulting myself for not weighing that more and being too misled by HRRR/RAP trends. The ML fronto 3-8am was really the main story of the event and saved the higher-end forecasts. Conveyor mechanics were definitely not the best. We saw a little 850 easterly advection in the second half after 12z give a bit of regeneration to radar returns, but it wasn't anywhere like our more organized storms. So, taking out the ML fronto band (boosted with higher SLRs), I think the convective interference did significantly diminish the overall storm outcome. All hobbyist thoughts... you and Coastal and others are great teachers.

Ha I actually was looking through charts of that event last night when Hoth was trying to remember the date of a similar event with runaway convective processes. Yeah (also in response to @40/70 Benchmark) this was not an easy forecast at all, and I definitely was nervous of a Messenger shuffle as guidance started favoring the easternmost low last evening that we had previously minimized as convection-driven. I was steady all week with 3-6/4-8 across eastern SNE that I mostly attributed to advection from a deepening surface low, but those thoughts did not reflect the bigger story of the event which ended being that nearly stationary fronto band overnight.

Lol I too saw that in the PNS. Trigger warning for weenies in our area.

Agree Our area usually gets shafted by an early and/or Winthrop sewage plant measurement that gets propagated in media. But Boston actually got a representative measurement this time. I just put the map up for a synoptic visual.

Yeah brutal for the NW crew... I think reflects how much of this event was carried by that one mesoscale feature 3-8am.

KBOS final 11.7" per NWS twitter Great storm to placate a lot of early seasonal frustrations. As always, a great place to learn from the mets here. The map below I think predominantly reflects (1) 700mb frontogenic band in response to vigorous shortwave and great SLRs, overlayed in 2nd half with (2) deepening of the farther-east-than-could've-been surface low with ensuing advection through 850-700 mb layer

Per Box twitter: As of 1 PM, here are how our climate sites stand in terms of snowfall from the season's first major winter storm: #Boston - 11.2 inches #Worcester - 6.2 inches #Providence - 5.9 inches #Hartford - 5.4 inches

Box in case this wasn't posted earlier: Well, the snowfall has over performed, especially in the mesoscale snow band that developed early this morning. It appears the liquid precipitation aspect of the forecast was quite accurate, however excellent dendritic growth conditions setup in that band, leading to SLRs of greater than 20:1. That greatly exceeded our expectation of SLRs in the 12-14:1 range and are pretty rare around these parts. That fluffy snow is a whole lot easier to clear, that is for sure.