wxsniss

Nah, the worries were sincere. I can understand why people are shook by recent phantom storms, but this is a different setup and I don't think we've had as good a signal as this at this leadtime so far this season. I actually prefer the grazer look at this point. In any case, great to have something to track.

Agree And I only brought out the microscope to counter some premature (season-scarred?) worries last night. We have a ways to go for both subtle shifts in large scale features and how the shortwaves interact, favorable or not.

For the detail-oriented... (and I don't think this kind of scrutiny this early is informative... so much will change in the next few days): 12z (green) vs. 0z EPS:

What's not to like? Game is still on

Someone earlier this season alluded to the Idaho peak of the ridge axis as a great setup for EC hit A lot of irrational panics about this last night. 6 days away. And I weigh Euro op maybe just a little more than just another ensemble member this far out. We're in a good spot.

Definitely makes no difference at this point, but 0z is not east of 12z: Mean is nearly identical: And more members west of the drawn line at 0z:

Very much alive at 6-7 days out... and more west members than 12z

Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

0z Euro trough digs too little too late, results in a scraper As much weight as another ensemble member this far out, especially given track record this season

Ray and others alluded to this... there are definite resemblances... (this is not a forecast, tons of lead time, but this definitely has this level of potential):

The rest of the EPS series... this is a really good look this far out...

Yeah Obviously tons of details tbd, especially thermals, but strong support for a big system. And not seeing the degree of wave spacing cluster look that has bungled other systems this season

Not a bad look

Euro is struggling with this... not that it is within range, but still a sizable jump at 0z (vs. 12z), at least at surface towards GFS What a season that GFS appears more steady (and trusted?) than EC Good consensus with GEFS and EPS for a big system

Great show Not quite the masterpiece that was Breaking Bad / Better Call Saul, but still extremely good. Give Succession a try... get past the insufferable Manhattan finance culture for an episode and you quickly get hooked. The character development and drama is fantastic and just won some Golden Globes.

Great to hear! Might be hard for people who have never raised a dog to understand... I had the joy of growing up with a dog for 18 years... was a member of the family.

Euro looking good I like this potential

In like a wall, great flakes Ground white in 3 min

Euro OP is 0/2 EPS say 2/2 not off the table Best signal yet for Fri: Mon:

Yeah I’m watching that, looks healthy and should arrive ~3 May re-whiten with 0.5”+

Definitely better than the op run for us. Seems more promising than the Thurs system from this far but obviously can change.

Call Roger

Hey Tip where do you get historic storm maps like this? I’ve looked all around the NCEI site and can’t find it. TIA

Yeah was thinking last night we should have been more tipped off by the realtime obs of an overproducer in KY/WV. I'm faulting myself for not weighing that more and being too misled by HRRR/RAP trends. The ML fronto 3-8am was really the main story of the event and saved the higher-end forecasts. Conveyor mechanics were definitely not the best. We saw a little 850 easterly advection in the second half after 12z give a bit of regeneration to radar returns, but it wasn't anywhere like our more organized storms. So, taking out the ML fronto band (boosted with higher SLRs), I think the convective interference did significantly diminish the overall storm outcome. All hobbyist thoughts... you and Coastal and others are great teachers.