wxsniss

Tracks somewhere between 12z and 18z, ie not as good as 18z

One critical nowcast period looks to be 9z-15z Saturday (4-10am) when that convection driven runaway low farther northeast really stretches out from our main low. If we can mitigate that stretch, we crush.

CCB is slightly better for southeast MA

NAM unquestionably west thru hr15 12z was a burp cycle

I don't think this is done trending back west on guidance... NAM should tic west with a more consolidated low thru 12hr I posted earlier: relative to 12z guidance stretched out by that overweighted vorticity far east, we will watch this LBSW where SW = SNE If I didn't have very dependent dependents keeping me away from the computer, I'd be nowcasting the heck out of this... someone should! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Lol thanks that's what I assumed but didn't know if I had missed something

I didn't realize that... is that just observation or their actual protocol?

HREF 12z fwiw (sorry if posted earlier), looks almost identical to NWS map Like a trail print of a dumbbelling low

What's clear is this is still in flux We watch for a LBSW, where SW = SNE... as is, very close to consolidating around the western low faster, more consistent with what we're seeing at mid/upper levels, and we're back to the 0z solutions

Yep captures then stalls east of Cape... I think surface looks same or slightly better than 12z

18z NAM still with the dual low at 18h but looks a tic north... this may hold or even be slightly better when captured

Just catching up, seems I was blissfully away from guidance all morning. At quick glance, don't have any grand insights except to say that the circled vorticity associated with the runaway SLP was even more prominent at 0z Euro. Weird, and suggests this is a highly sensitive and close pivot in outcome. Maybe an issue of how much the energy rounding trough can dominate. H5 maps tell us this should track closer, but all guidance trends tell us otherwise. Stressful forecast for the periphery. Sounds cliche, but we nowcast.

Blizzard warning up for all east coastal Mass including Boston

Yeah I'd be surprised if blizzard warning is limited to southeast MA... winds >30 knots for hours seem likely for much of coastal eastern MA

Not worth much at this point, but will be interesting to trend... 0z HREF:

Exactly how I feel. The 0z NAM (and continuing that trend) was not completely unrealistic, so glad Euro held.

Definitely is, and from the best guidance We're in a great spot Jerry 0z NAM showing its usual spasticity Harvey's confidence was great to see

Very close to 18z, changes are within noise Great run for SNE, Ray this should put worries at ease. Sorry Forky.

Actually has a little meso-low business hrs 35-38 But overall looks within noise... held and did not make a jump towards NAM

hr36 definitely west vs. 18z/12z runs

hr24 trough axis is better, less confluence ahead... this might actually tick west, for better/worse depending on where you are

Oh I know lol And I understand the nerves... my area / north metrowest may have similar issues And while I'm fairly confident, I'm not 100% absolutely certain we don't see progressively earlier capture until it's congrats Forky Sounds like a broken record, but once again Euro run will be critical

Yeah always great to see Harv fired up, classic. 0z NAM verbatim might have a chunk of 17-19" deep in his 24"+ zone, and would also warrant expanding the 18-24 zone farther west... he did neither. Appropriately not flinching to that single piece of guidance.

Harv didn't flinch with the 0z NAM 24+ all of eastern Mass

I'm with you, been watching that all day... odds are this 0z NAM is not the verbatim final outcome. I suspect either Euro holds or this tics even closer and we're into the meat of the CCB.