wxsniss

Just missed you in the overnight shift, now tuning in for Euro... yeah I posted that the site going down last night was a mercy kill for all the overreacting over 1/5 0z NAM. Haven't wavered from thoughts since weekend: 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE as a start, and now that we've survived ingest of shortwave sampling in Pac NW, I still anticipate this could trend NW in final 48 hours with potential for higher totals.

Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

Yeah 6z Rgem actually looks like it ticked a hair NW with surface track Can’t take any of these verbatim but bottomline there was no rug pulled with new data ingested at 0z

Site's back... apparently a mercy kill to minimize fretting over 0z GFS/NAM 0z EC ticked west and 6z NAM12k/3k a huge hit, 6-12" much of SNE Just missed you Jerry! We appropriately did not overreact to the 0z NAM, and while we can't take 6z NAM verbatim, it at least does not support the concern of improved sampling at 0z. Differences I see at 6z include a slightly stronger shortwave entering Pac NW and better downstream ridging / less of that scooter streak.

Just catching up to 0z stuff Yeah agree I’d dismiss NAM in a heartbeat at this time range especially vs EPS, but can’t rule out that this is reflecting better sampling of a weaker shortwave. The differences were apparent already when it was up in the Pacific Northwest. Still too early to nail the coffin.

Yep... we posted about this earlier, both from perspective of surface low position and disrupted conveyor mechanics. Majority of EPS members are west of mean, and the median is probably more informative. If the convection is not in play, the true mean is significantly more west. Watch models jump within next 2-3 cycles.

Yeah, maybe it's real and we will have a disjointed system... otherwise that 18z RGEM would have been a much bigger hit with that track. From current guidance (again heavily weighing that median on EPS which looks to be over/west of BM... and given the receding NAO and other synoptics discussed), I'm anticipating a trend northwest on op guidance in the next 24 hours. Might even see an abrupt jump with sampling tonight. 3-6/4-8 kind of range for eSNE is probably a good place to start... at some point, we'd need to see the bigger hits actually depicted on the trusted models to go higher.

All theoretical and specific to this out-of-range guidance, but that 18z RGEM could have been a much bigger hit than depicted verbatim... the convection further east is probably interfering with conveyor belt

vs. 0z: Slightly better digging shortwave... this is not so bad, probably a better hit for eSNE than 0z

EPS 0z: 12z:

Agree Frankly, any slightly outside BM tracks today make me more comfortable for our area Not wavering from my thoughts over the weekend, and still heavily weighing EPS: synoptically this is more likely to trend northwest than OTS as we get closer, especially if this shortwave is undersampled

0z Euro and GFS stepped toward each other, maybe even a little do si do Like GFS, would not take QPF verbatim especially in eSNE

Even just through hr 66 can see shortwave is digging less over Missouri... this run will not hug

Been a while (last winter) since we've had consensus for a big one... and guidance that is steady (strong signal since before NYE, 7 days) Current model weight and receding NAO make me think hugger is more likely than ots GFS today was a significant outlier EPS members:

Was wondering why no comments... 0z Euro with a nice looking northern stream system next Friday GFS and GEFS/EPS have it too Actually something to track.

Congrats VT/NH folks... otherwise, yeah really annoying system, can't think of a single redeeming feature. Red flags all over (high DGZ, junk antecedent, meager qpf, etc we all posted yesterday), but the cooling trend Thursday had me thinking at least advisory in much of Mass. Has the RGEM ever been this bad? Probably, just can't remember a recent fail as bad as this. Up to 18z last night (24 hours before event) it was consistently showing warning level snows through a big chunk of MA.

Looks about right. Canadian models (including 18z RGEM) stubbornly aggressive and on their own.

Agree Antecedent mass is junk, there's no robust confluence to anticipate trends the other way, ratios will be crap with DGZ much higher than best lift, meager QPF, and boundary layer will be working against us in the coastal plain. Box will probably shave map an inch or so across the board in afternoon update

12z RGEM isn't budging much, still the coldest On its own here

0z Euro ticked a bit warmer looking like low end advisory south of pike high end advisory north of pike warning closer to VT/NH border Box this morning:

A meager event, but pretty decent consensus at 48 hours. How could this surprise other than colder/warmer? Other thing I'm watching is if QPF ramps up or shreds out. 12z -> 18z looked a tick drier. We don't have much buffer...

I think you're good for 3-4" given the tics colder at 12z today. Just outside of Boston metro inside 128 I'm thinking 1-3". Not bad model consensus 48 hours away. At the moment, NAM seems on its own with the aggressive WAA. 18z RGEM ticked warmer, but it was one of the coldest models so far.

Box early forecast is most similar to 12z GFS If this remains colder like 12z Euro/RGEM, would add 1-2" in most areas

0z HRRR had literally 0 through midnight for our eastern areas… I was worried we might actually go for broke so glad we at least whitened

Looking good for c-1 0z HRRR fail