jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
You have to remember when you look at peoples tweets on twitter are they talking about IMBY.We live in another warp zone to where they live at,just saying. -
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Teleconnections look real ugly upcoming,Starting into the first week of Met winter.Really a huge uptick of the AO tho there are a some ensemble members don't show this while with a -PNA /+NAO.EPS really wants to build an strong Upper Level Ridge into the Valley,have to wait and see there ,looks to be a trough right now going through East Asia next Sunday,But either way we are going to seemingly warm up into the first week of Dec. seemingly,but i dont think it is as bad as what the EPS is showing -
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
See what it looks like in a few weeks.PV,MJO,etc.etc.Good news it's still Nov so no need to just yet..lol -
Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it.
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Have to see further model runs but right now CIPS and the Euro would suggest some strong storms into the warm sector in the long range towards the end of next weekend
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
PV looks to be headed towards Eurasia,it's not a very exciting look at all the first half of Dec if at all -
Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out
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GFS is like the old Bullwinkle and Rocky Cartoon.Hey Rocky"Watch me pull cold weather out my hat" Again !!!But that trick never works
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Not much comparison with the IO this year with last,it did have a slight burst around the 26th as the map i'm showing from last year,but this IO is going to seemingly be stronger than normal into most of Dec.Last year the MJO was just getting into the WH and Africa towards the end of Nov,we had our first hard freeze or to say it got cold here ,21 on Nov 28
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Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5
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2019 ENSO
jaxjagman replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down -
2019 ENSO
jaxjagman replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That is not a -PDO look right now -
Here's the control,end of the run
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See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC
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JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update
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http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html
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Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO
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Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly
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MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming.
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Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out
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Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter
