jaxjagman

I would not be shocked if this Jan is not right,the EPS shows it from an EPO.But into winter when the NAO goes negative,we will be doomed in the Mid and western Valley.I'll be in Chicago the middle Jan for my sons gymnastics meet.We got lucky last year and it snowed about 6 inches while we was there,the year before that we walked around the zoo there in short sleaves..doh !!

Like the last weeklies of the EPS,into wk 2-3 -EPO,then it goes into a more -NAO afterwards,we should have snow chances here in Mid and western Valley from cutters,after this if its right,it will be a sob story for us in the Mid and western Valley other than snot blowing cold noses wk 4,it will turn colder seemingly

Yeah but seemingly we are fixing to lose wave-2 and wave-1 will seemingly start to weaken as the heights get pumped into Siberia some what to speak.This should strengten the PV later on but the blocking would push the PV towards NA,I have my doubts we will see a SSW.JMHO

It shows a more Nino pattern and a potential more Modokish look

Sure looks like we are seeing pattern change into Russia into Mongolia

Did the same thing,it's a pain to use

Be interesting to see how the RMMS do,you have alot of stuff that's fixing to happen along the IDL,a low, Rossby wave , Kelvin Wave ,WWB with a more suppressed IOD for a change,the strongest SST'S along the IDL.I still wonder if they will whiff out,but that's what they show right now

The charts update monthly.The daily QBO map still shows shows westerlies, i put a point on it on the 50hpa,so basically you want to see on the graph bar the line on the chart on the other side.You can also use Berlin zonal winds for a prediction,it shows the westerlies decreasing in the upcoming days,if it's right of course,they both show something different today

EPS has rain and snow next weekend,Euro on the other hand is starting to resemble the last severe weather event recently

Seems like we are headed into the right direction from past strongly +IOD events lasting into fall/winter.When the strong +IOD occurs(1994,1997,2006) in the late season the ENSO into 3.4 gets stronger on the ONI in the winter months,but it peaks out in "DJF"some what and after that starts to fall into a LaNina more or less into summer 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3

Last year on DEC.17TH the RMMS showed the MJO out of the COD(phase-4) and then going back into the COD the next several days later.Then on the 24th the MJO actually ended up out of the COD into phase 5. RMMS are good tools to use, but can be very volatile at times.They are more usefull when you have a stronger signal than a weak one

Firgured the Euro would be completely different today

MJO by the RMMS continue to show it going into phase 6,seems still they are having a tough go with the signal which seems destructive from Rossby/Kelvin Waves.The GEFS today looks more progressive. The EPS did look quite nice,lets hope it continues to show this

2013-14 came in mind when Webber mentioned the TNH,we had the dome over us..lol..so we were safe but that was quite a bit of ice that year

It could push the warmer SSTS INTO 3.4

On your map of the 200hpa VP on the GEFS, this seems possible this could just be ENSO noise as there is a WWB showing up along the IDL upcoming

MJO has weak signals,even some the the Euro members and even the Euro for that matter seems to be hinting at the MJO getting into phase 7 then looping right back into the Maritime the first of the year,have to wait and see.See a different look everyday

MJO looks to be getting into the WH just after Christmas,not far off from what the RMMM's are showing

11.mp4

Wave 2 sure looks better than yesterday,in the long rabge

We could see a cold spell if teleconnections work out like the post i posted in the banter thread.It still looks like wave2 will crap out and vault the PV into Eurasia tho upcoming

You can find these maps here if you didn't know https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#merraulat10

Eiether way of the PV,seemingly wave two is going to get broke down and the PV will probably strenghten once again upcoming.

If you ask me ,there really is signs the MJO is is going to get stronger signals towards the end of the year.I just like to use these maps on a 3-day forecast to get a better view,but if you expand it to even 5 days you can right now see the MJO signal get stronger into Africa."IF" the +IOD does start to streghten once again,pic above ,even tho the PV is getting hit it might go back towards Eurasia once again with wave 2 getting broke down