jaxjagman

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025

Thought Middle Tn would get put in a slight risk the last update but they left us in a marginal still

National Weather Service Nashville TN 820 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 813 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025 - Near record warmth today. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. - More showers this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025 Nashville`s high temperature reached 74 degrees this afternoon -- just 1 degree shy of tying the record high for this date. Tomorrow won`t be quite as warm as today, but will still be warm for early February. We expect a surface boundary to slip through the mid state later tonight and early Tuesday. We don`t expect any showers with the fropa, but there will be some additional cloudiness along with cooler temperatures. In the meantime, the evening sounding from OHX shows a dry atmosphere in place, and the moisture coming in with tonight`s front won`t be enough to give us measurable precipitation. So we`ll have to wait until Wednesday for the next appreciable chance for rain.

Guess we will know more in the next few days,but its a train wreck into the IO right now with Rossby and Kelvin waves.But i'm starting to like the GEFS.It seems like the EWB west of the IDL will start to get broke down into early Feb this should/could strenghten the MJO signal into the WP.

No chance of snow here,thermals are to warm and when it gets cold enough its low PWS and dry air so the moisture has moved out

I'm with you and Carver,until the MJO gets out of the IO we could see something different,but right now every model shows about the same thing.I think we started to see the pattern change around the 15th of this month,now for the first time the AAM is showing its gonna stay low,we had our winter storm recently with -NAO and its been that way for the most part all winter now its positive,no signs its gonna change anytime soon.For the first time this winter it seems to be coupled with NINA and not so as it has been

Models are showing today SO far right now the best chance for severe would be the lower MV up into the Mid South into wk2 kinda like PV maps are showing up top,i'm just looking at DP's right now

Looks severe into the lower MV into the Mid South possibly into the first wk of Feb possibly.If the MJO gets hung out into the WP like some models seem to be hinting at we might have to find the flooding thread buried somewhere

Euro has a boundary lifting though the Tn Valley around next weekend,if it right then would be also a line of severe storms possible with DP'S 60+all the way up into the lower OV

Good for the east,we've at least gotten moisture here recently South Drought Summary Temperatures were cooler than normal for the region this week with most areas 5-10 degrees below normal. It was mostly a dry week throughout the region with only areas of southern Texas recording above-normal precipitation. Some areas are pushing 60 or more days without any significant precipitation in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, but as it is climatologically the driest time of the year for some of these areas, drought degradation has been slow. Changes this week included an expansion of abnormally dry conditions over extreme northwest Arkansas and central Texas. Moderate drought also expanded over portions of central Texas due to reports of crop losses due to lack of soil moisture in the region. Extreme drought expanded along the Big Bend of Texas where hydrological indicators are supporting the expansion. Some improvements to the severe and extreme drought were made in middle Tennessee, but abnormally dry conditions were expanded in the southwest portion of the state.

Yeah but where has it been this year,i agree with you more study

Be totally shocked if we get anywhere near 80 through mid month,it should be a wet pattern into TN

I'd like to understand more about the solar cycles and why people even try and incorporate them into seasonal forecast.In 1996 we had back then one of the strongest PV's on record only to get surpassed by the 2020,this year the PV has been relentlessly strong even without a solar min.I'm just using 30hPa as reference what JMA shows

Dunno,its a waiting game.CFS totally rocked the other models into the extended period last cycle,it showed what was going to happen into the IO while the other extended models wanted to kill the MJO off to fast

See what happens the next few days into the IO.RW AND KW can cause chaos into the IO and cause constructive interference with the MJO signal where it could be further along,but every model i see is showing the the MJO will start to weaken the next couple days

https://www.brproud.com/video/wvla-anvato-2/adstXlnjeoDNm4YE

Resembles the 2014 storm https://www.weather.gov/mob/2014_Ice

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more

I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

Last just came through here,mostly partly cloudy now,yall still have few hours

Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence

You guys to the east of us should have a few more hours,the back side of us is fixing to end but virga has mostly taken over,so good luck

Sorry to hear this.God speed recovery,my prayers are with you.

Dont feel bad,we have a dusting on our mulch

Could be,some people still think its more like the 94-95,i at one time thought the same,but but Yellow Sea to off of the West Pac off of Japan the SST'S were very cold compared to this year.Its kinda ironic tho even tho last year was in a NINO was the warmest ever SST'S in a NINO,this year is even warmer with a NINA,i dunno,we'll see