jaxjagman

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon. ...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau... A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122

Severe dixie alley getting primed into spring

All the long range models shows the heights rising in east Asia.Some hints at a even +nao and -pna,but it is to early to tell and the MJO looks to me will get into the MARITIME but the signal isnt as strong as it has been.The ensembles tho have a sIgnificant amount of spread with them,JMHO

Trough is going trough East China,Yelllow Sea and even possibly into South Korea the next couple days,we should have a system if everything teleconnects around the 19th.EPS even hints at this in the long range

Looking like the AO could tank around week 3,GFS wants to drop the bomb in the long range and finally shows a decent PNA,would be the coldest we've seen in decades if it were to be believed GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN08 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 08-JAN 33.8 29.1 01008 FRI 18Z 08-JAN 35.3 33.4 35.1 31.6 34008 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 09-JAN 36.4 34.1 34.3 29.3 34007 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 09-JAN 34.3 30.8 30.8 26.4 33005 0.00 95 SAT 12Z 09-JAN 30.7 28.3 28.4 25.2 34005 0.00 97 SAT 18Z 09-JAN 33.9 28.2 33.9 23.7 36006 0.00 90 SUN 00Z 10-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.4 24.4 01005 0.00 71 SUN 06Z 10-JAN 31.6 28.0 28.1 23.5 01003 0.00 44 SUN 12Z 10-JAN 27.9 26.6 26.6 22.9 01003 0.00 9 SUN 18Z 10-JAN 39.1 26.5 39.1 23.9 02004 0.00 13 MON 00Z 11-JAN 40.4 32.9 32.9 23.5 35003 0.00 89 MON 06Z 11-JAN 32.9 29.9 30.2 24.5 01003 0.00 52 MON 12Z 11-JAN 30.4 29.0 29.2 24.7 02003 0.00 88 MON 18Z 11-JAN 38.8 29.6 37.5 31.3 10002 SN 0.02 100 TUE 00Z 12-JAN 37.4 34.7 35.1 34.5 33002 SN 0.13 100 TUE 06Z 12-JAN 35.7 34.8 35.1 33.8 32005 0.03 100 TUE 12Z 12-JAN 34.9 29.4 29.4 27.8 32004 0.00 52 TUE 18Z 12-JAN 42.3 28.7 42.2 28.2 29002 0.00 8 WED 00Z 13-JAN 43.7 35.3 35.3 28.1 24004 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.2 26.5 22004 0.00 0 WED 12Z 13-JAN 31.2 29.6 29.6 26.0 20005 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-JAN 45.3 29.5 45.3 32.6 22007 0.00 0 THU 00Z 14-JAN 47.3 38.5 38.5 33.4 20005 0.00 12 THU 06Z 14-JAN 38.6 35.4 35.5 33.7 20006 0.00 33 THU 12Z 14-JAN 35.5 33.5 33.5 32.7 19006 0.00 16 THU 18Z 14-JAN 50.1 33.5 50.1 38.9 20010 0.00 18 FRI 00Z 15-JAN 53.3 45.1 45.1 39.0 22007 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 45.1 40.4 41.2 35.1 31010 0.02 63 FRI 12Z 15-JAN 41.1 34.0 34.0 28.5 25007 0.00 57 FRI 18Z 15-JAN 39.8 33.8 39.7 24.0 28012 SN 0.00 24 SAT 00Z 16-JAN 40.1 34.3 34.3 25.0 29007 0.01 99 SAT 06Z 16-JAN 34.2 28.3 28.3 21.1 30005 0.00 64 SAT 12Z 16-JAN 28.3 26.4 26.4 16.6 28007 0.00 41 SAT 18Z 16-JAN 34.9 26.1 34.9 15.2 26005 0.00 67 SUN 00Z 17-JAN 38.8 34.1 34.9 21.3 19006 0.00 66 SUN 06Z 17-JAN 35.9 34.1 35.7 22.5 20010 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 17-JAN 36.2 35.2 35.7 24.9 20010 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 17-JAN 44.4 35.5 44.4 33.3 23012 0.00 100 MON 00Z 18-JAN 45.4 36.0 35.9 28.0 29008 0.00 78 MON 06Z 18-JAN 36.2 30.1 30.1 22.6 30007 0.00 90 MON 12Z 18-JAN 29.9 27.1 27.3 22.2 24005 0.00 25 MON 18Z 18-JAN 43.0 27.1 43.0 24.9 27008 0.00 2 TUE 00Z 19-JAN 45.2 36.6 36.5 27.5 24005 0.00 22 TUE 06Z 19-JAN 36.5 32.1 32.1 26.6 23002 0.00 20 TUE 12Z 19-JAN 32.0 28.5 28.6 25.2 05004 0.00 74 TUE 18Z 19-JAN 43.8 28.1 43.8 28.6 07002 0.00 70 WED 00Z 20-JAN 45.2 38.4 38.4 27.6 03008 0.00 97 WED 06Z 20-JAN 38.4 30.1 30.2 29.1 06007 SN 0.13 100 WED 12Z 20-JAN 30.3 28.5 28.5 27.7 03009 SN 0.21 100 WED 18Z 20-JAN 31.6 26.8 31.6 30.4 00008 0.09 91 THU 00Z 21-JAN 31.9 24.0 24.0 21.4 33003 0.00 75 THU 06Z 21-JAN 23.7 20.6 20.9 17.3 23003 0.00 0 THU 12Z 21-JAN 22.2 20.1 21.8 18.6 21006 0.00 0 THU 18Z 21-JAN 31.9 21.8 31.5 29.1 28009 SN 0.00 54 FRI 00Z 22-JAN 31.6 23.8 23.8 19.4 31008 0.02 98 FRI 06Z 22-JAN 23.6 14.2 14.2 8.5 31008 0.00 68 FRI 12Z 22-JAN 14.0 7.7 7.8 1.8 31007 0.00 22 FRI 18Z 22-JAN 13.1 7.1 13.1 3.7 31009 0.00 61 SAT 00Z 23-JAN 14.0 10.6 10.6 4.0 31006 SN 0.01 100 SAT 06Z 23-JAN 10.6 5.9 6.0 -1.0 31005 0.00 69 SAT 12Z 23-JAN 5.8 3.1 3.1 -4.2 30005 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 23-JAN 12.3 2.7 12.3 2.5 30007 0.00 4 SUN 00Z 24-JAN 15.6 10.4 11.1 5.4 28003 0.00 23 SUN 06Z 24-JAN 11.2 9.4 9.5 4.6 24002 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 24-JAN 9.6 8.7 9.0 3.8 14002 0.00 9

Yeah i know,tell me about it

Looks like BNA and i should head your way

Good grief,where are you again?

Just went out side and more rain than snow

Only a few flakes here,we do have a decent band fixing to hit

Heck yeah..lol

National Weather Service Nashville TN 549 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Upper low appears to be located over ne MS at this time. Some snow accumulation has been reported across Giles, Lawrence and Lewis counties thus far. Amounts of up to one half inch or so with the roadways slush covered in some areas. Temperatures are generally in the lower 30s across that area. Radar showing some reflectivity enhancement across much of northern AL. Areas across Marshall, coffee and Bedford counties will likely see snowfall pick up over the next couple hours. For the update, we expanded the winter weather advisory to include much of southwest and south central middle TN. This advisory will be in effect until 6 AM. Up to 1 inch of snowfall will be possible. For the Plateau, we moved up the start time to 8 PM. WSW and Zones have been sent.

it's happening

There seems to be some hints at the MJO could possibly strenghten into the Eastern IO and into the Maritime towards the end of the month into Feb

Think these maps are so cool,even tho it's 15-days out the GFS shows a split. https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

Looks like a bowling ball today,with some shortwave into the GOM.But we know the drill 7-days away

Nice looking trough going through East Asia the next few days.Teles look like the NAO/AO is going to start climbing during this time so lots of uncertainty.Should potentiallly see a system effecting us MId Jan

Should watch this system.The AO looks to start tanking upcoming.Right now the cam looks like convection into the GOM in which would cut it off.Being it is a week away we'll still see changes.Right now it looks more like a slider coming through the Valley,

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/tntornadostats

We've done really well with tornadoes recently.Since the NWS started collecting data in the 1800s, Middle Tennessee has been hit with 65 EF-3 tornadoes, 20 EF-4 tornadoes and one EF-5 tornado.

2014 the strongest LOW on record during this time frame, into the Bering Sea and western Aleutians was in a Nino year and the trough axis was further west unlike this year we are in a NINA,other drivers should be noted just as well,just pointing out the ENSO. https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2020/12/31/bomb-cyclone-heading-toward-aleutian-islands-becomes-strongest-storm-ever-to-hit-alaska/

Wasnt sure i was right,believe it was this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone#North_America

Probably right