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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Heck yeah..lol
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National Weather Service Nashville TN 549 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Upper low appears to be located over ne MS at this time. Some snow accumulation has been reported across Giles, Lawrence and Lewis counties thus far. Amounts of up to one half inch or so with the roadways slush covered in some areas. Temperatures are generally in the lower 30s across that area. Radar showing some reflectivity enhancement across much of northern AL. Areas across Marshall, coffee and Bedford counties will likely see snowfall pick up over the next couple hours. For the update, we expanded the winter weather advisory to include much of southwest and south central middle TN. This advisory will be in effect until 6 AM. Up to 1 inch of snowfall will be possible. For the Plateau, we moved up the start time to 8 PM. WSW and Zones have been sent.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
it's happening -
There seems to be some hints at the MJO could possibly strenghten into the Eastern IO and into the Maritime towards the end of the month into Feb
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Think these maps are so cool,even tho it's 15-days out the GFS shows a split. https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like a bowling ball today,with some shortwave into the GOM.But we know the drill 7-days away -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice looking trough going through East Asia the next few days.Teles look like the NAO/AO is going to start climbing during this time so lots of uncertainty.Should potentiallly see a system effecting us MId Jan -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Should watch this system.The AO looks to start tanking upcoming.Right now the cam looks like convection into the GOM in which would cut it off.Being it is a week away we'll still see changes.Right now it looks more like a slider coming through the Valley, -
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/tntornadostats
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We've done really well with tornadoes recently.Since the NWS started collecting data in the 1800s, Middle Tennessee has been hit with 65 EF-3 tornadoes, 20 EF-4 tornadoes and one EF-5 tornado.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
2014 the strongest LOW on record during this time frame, into the Bering Sea and western Aleutians was in a Nino year and the trough axis was further west unlike this year we are in a NINA,other drivers should be noted just as well,just pointing out the ENSO. https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2020/12/31/bomb-cyclone-heading-toward-aleutian-islands-becomes-strongest-storm-ever-to-hit-alaska/ -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wasnt sure i was right,believe it was this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone#North_America -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Probably right -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Believe the strongest to date was in 2012?Don't quote me, i could be wrong.Believe it was on Halloween afterwards LeConte got 3 feet of snow -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
In 2016 in a NINA the models kept showing a big storm in this area but we ended up with one of our best snow storms on record,no clue if it will happen again.Its so weird how the Valley works,someone is always going to be left out one way or another -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
They havent had a good snow strorm in years -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like a potential active period coming up maybe.The MJO tho being shown into the the COD into the IO there looks like some decent convection more into the MARITIME,also into Jan you can clearly see a KW possibly into ,BETWEEN JAN 4-6,tho this certainly could change. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Control today almost looks like it wants to just blow up the SPV -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
My storms never work out,i'm still looking at the storm towards the 2nd week of Jan.The pattern looks up and down.We should have a trough new years which looks imminent right now then a warm up then a system towards the end of week one into two.Right now it's just meh looking -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice trough on the Euro with the ULL in the MO/Valley.Potentially with some shortwaves riding along it.Tho to early to early to trust right now -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS is hinting at the possible SSWE talked about above into the 2nd week of Jan,It hasnt been showing this recently and the GEFS still says no -
Christmas Eve/Christmas 2020 Arctic Express Snow Obs.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It didnt start until night here at my house.These were convective bands and we seem to got lucky.I went to the store earlier today and you couldnt even tell it snowed any a few blocks away.This was the same as the last storm,except we didnt get much of anything,but if you went south towards Franklin they got much more than us -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley