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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    CIPS best analog for the upcoming days looks better in the East 3-6-92,mainly wind it seems right now.That was freaking nuts in Cen Fl March of 92 https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/record_hailstorms.pdf
  2. jaxjagman
    Maybe yall will do something and see a bit more,our dp's show alot of dry air so what the radar shows is nothing but virga mostly
  3. jaxjagman
    we got some flakes flying around,its 29 now around here
  4. jaxjagman
    Early March of 2012 had a outbreak,if it happens again who know https://www.weather.gov/meg/march2_2012_severe_event
  5. jaxjagman
    I still believe the best analog year is NINA of 2011-2012 for us in the Valley,plus it matches up well with the ENSO.
  6. jaxjagman
    If the CFS is anywhere right.It shows the Aluetian High what we possibly saw it into Dec in March again.This would promote a rather robust -PNA signal like we seen in Dec.
  7. jaxjagman
    looks more like 2017-18,this is into April but still
  8. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Not sure if there is a great analog year,I think you should throw out some of those those years,i posted on the severe thread.Best match in recent decades could look like the 2017-18 NINA,But the map i'm posting is into April of 2018,but still looks like it could match up the best. https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/04/enso-update-increased-chance-for-el-nino-next-fall-or-winter/
  9. jaxjagman
    Auburn escaped another win.Not sure what to think about this team.When they are on they are awesome but they seem to get over confident at times and look just bad.Great teams will put the dagger in you and never look back,tells me Auburn can be beat anyday.Kessler is a freak tho,so glad he came to Auburn
  10. jaxjagman
    Seems maybe some cross breed from 2012 Nina to 2018 Nina.You can go beyond those times into the 1950's to the 1980 but GW is real.NINA looks like 1996,2001.2012,2018 and even 2021. 2012 was the off year with severe out of those years.But it produced some strong tornadoes east of 1-65 in spring and even the deadly Derecho in Chatty that year. Either way,the big record breaking -PNA in Dec since records were taking since 1950 with the help of the Aluetian High was set at -2.76 it was a big factor with our historic severe Fall season into Met winter https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  11. jaxjagman
    Oh man,look at that.Makes me think of Phil
  12. jaxjagman
    Not sure yet.CFS is parking the signal into the Maritime and Euro seemingly,that should possibly be severe leading into or around Met spring.
  13. jaxjagman
    Rossby wave is going to work its way into the IO the next few days and a Kelvin Wave coming off Africa during the same period,plus you have a TC,MJO signal could and should get stronger into the IO
  14. jaxjagman
    If they would fix North America,you wouldnt have to spend no more money,thats alot of charts they put out
  15. jaxjagman
    ECMWF added stuff also,but some plots dont seem to update well in North America https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts
  16. jaxjagman
    Its still cooling in the west and warming in east so a transition is on going
  17. jaxjagman
    ill be in knoxville for my sons gymnastics meet Sat.,so let it happen
  18. jaxjagman
    yeah i watch the radar in Mid Tn where we have barely anything it starts to explode as you get to the Cumberland,i believe that
  19. jaxjagman
    Clippers are what they are here,they clip us,sometimes we get lucky and get a inch but they seem to do better once they start hitting the upslopes
  20. jaxjagman
    coming off the lakes,could enhance it,could be more than showing
  21. jaxjagman
    That looks like a long wave trough and a clipper on the back side
  22. jaxjagman
    Got no complaints still about this winter,we can do good in Mid Tn during a moderate Nina or it can suck.This year was good,i know Nashville says they got just under 10",we are still around a foot and a half here plus some nicks and dimes.Definite the best snow we have gotten here since the snow dome effect came in place
  23. jaxjagman
    Euro has a GREAT AO look but the PNA blows
  24. jaxjagman
    Right,the infraction committee is a f'n joke
  25. jaxjagman
    Some of the anoms are acting like 2011 just a few weeks ahead ,.If the CFS is right It shows the MJO start to strenghten into the IO/Maritime and possibly a stronger signal into the WP.Either way, possibly a time to keep a eye out into the start of Met spring right now
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