jaxjagman

Switched to Memphis radar and it does look warm nose could change it over later,dunno right now its not

My radar shows it all snow down to the TN/AL line and they got some decent returns,models didnt show them getting much of anything that i recall

That band should start to explode the one that just left Nashville,its headed towards the Cumberland

Decent shower now

Took it awhile,should start picking up any min https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a

Should finally be snowing here in a few min,some 30dbz is knocking on the door if it holds

Got a virga storm here

Try his blogs https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds

Rossby Wave is fixing to cause chaos with the RMMS signal the next few days.

I was thinking the same but more north of 1-40,theyve had quite a winter from snow,flooding and severe

https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf they must be pretty damn confident..lol

WSW in general go out 12-36 hours this is like 72 hrs..lol

Actually strange they'd do this so early,its not the criteria of WSW

But basically every long range model is showing severe so we will see

Think the next chance of severe should come right after Met spring starts.Euro shows a ridge building on top of Japan which should be a ridge in the NE and heights falling from a trough into Mongolia which should/could be a -PNA

Euro is back to record breaking temps early Friday morn

When i went to bed there was a few tor warned cells in MS and up up torwards the AL/TN line,i couldnt hang no more i was tired.But for us it pretty much behaved

Lots of waves going on,in which seemingly is destroying the MJO signal.I'd probably run with the JMA right now because it seems to be the most tightly clustered

LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 For the long term, we shift our focus to the next system that will likely bring some accumulating snowfall to middle TN Wednesday. The current NBM probabilities of at least 2 inches or more of snow is 40% south of I-40, and between 60-80% north of I-40. The probability of 4 inches or more is 50-70% north of I-40. Sampling a few model soundings from both the NAM and the GFS, temperature profiles are well below freezing with ample moisture in the dendritic growth zone, so as of now, this looks to be an all snow event. As the trough exits off to the east Thursday, bitterly cold temperatures will settle in at the surface as high pressure builds in from the midwest. We will remain dry through the remainder of the forecast period, but again, it will be cold. Current high temperature forecast has the majority of middle TN aside from the far southern counties below freezing for 48+ hours for Wednesday-Thursday. Some slight warming will occur Saturday and Sunday as upper level ridging builds over the Ohio River Valley with temperatures getting back into the 40s.

Vortex,you guys have a tornado?

While the line of storms in passing through East Tn models show it's snowing into NW Tn

Could be some storms ahead of that line Could be some discrete cells ahead of that line into the early evening

Each run now seems to be creeping up to the typical 1-40 battle zone,next few model runs it wouldnt surprise me if its all rain and not snow here

Sure the Euro is record breaking temps for the day here,last time it got that cold here was Feb 5,1996