jaxjagman

Like to see the next update from CPC.The TAO shows warming into the subsurface getting into R3 today from a more suppressed Kelvin.The CFS still shows a WWB getting into R3 around mid month but without a more robust Rossby as it was showing earlier, so this WWB goes further east, so this would/could help kick up a CCKW as being shown

But this can be just as volatile as the pattern we are seeing right now in 1.2

Slight push to the west with the warm SST'S at the surface and subsurface on this map.Kelvin passed 3.4 and into 3 so they have been cooling some the past couple days.The cold pocket though east of 120W in the subsurface in region3 keeps getting smaller and smaller

Seasonals are coming out,NMME looks to cool right now and GOES is certainly the outlier.Think if i were to make a bold prediction with the ENS0, GFDL FLOR would be my top choice going into winter,by these models

looks more wind by the outflows,either way,HRRR is not doing very well,we are fixing to get some good rains soon into the Mid Valley Tornado Warning TNC023-039-071-077-109-070445- /O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0033.191007T0400Z-191007T0445Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee... Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee... Northern Hardin County in western Tennessee... East central Chester County in western Tennessee... Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee... * Until 1145 PM CDT. * At 1100 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near Jacks Creek, or 10 miles southeast of Henderson, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Adamsville, Decaturville, Sardis, Jacks Creek, Morris Chapel, Montgomery, Scotts Hill, Saltillo, Milledgeville, Enville, Right, Haney, Hinkle, Roby, Pleasant Grove, Cabo, Red Walnut, Thurman, Lick Skillet and Sibley.

Think in the long range you should see what this WWB does before a robust Rossby wave kills it off around 120W into region 3,this could really warm region 3 up seemingly and even spawn up a new Kelvin with this, CFS has been rather consistent with this

Not sure if that is going to be right,these SST'S seemingly keep getting warmer east of the IDL into the surface and into the thermocline,guess we'll see.I can see the warmth more basin wide tho

I usually just post on our sub-forum every once in awhile post here,but why do ya'll keep thinking this will be a west based Nino and not a wide spread Nino,the subsurface to me is just brutal warm to suggest this

CFS continues to be consistent with a WWB east of 120W then runs into a robust Rossby and weakens it,still have to watch out for a potential to initiate a KW,the subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL.

Agree,SE also is getting into a severe drought,we really need something to thump them hard

Surface and subsurface east of the IDL continue to warm,tho it's still cool into the subsurface around east of 120W.CFS shows a WWB making it slightly past 120W before it meets a Rossby wave and weakens it mid month,but this could help initiate a KW east of the IDL,so if were to be right you'd see some slight warming into 3 past the mid month i'd think

Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon seems like over an inch of rain,least right now.

Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front, owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low. Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for organized severe thunderstorms. Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day 6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return, there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this time.

3.4 is back to 0.5

Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves.

Maybe it's better now

Sure we're next

We are in our worse drought sorta speaking since since 1954 in the Tn Valley,around Nashville is on pace to be the driest for Sept and even warmest on record with temps of 90 plus for the year,seems like a more LaNina but isnt.i have hard time to believe this will be cold and not warm in our area especially if we don't get any rain upcoming into our dry Oct season upcoming

Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through

IMME

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

Jamstec,it did really bad last winter

Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold

NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM