jaxjagman

Believe that is more the first wave isnt it?

That was a good run that time

Everyone has their choice but i think the mesoscales work better in this time frame,i dont even look at the globals no more outside 24hrs but everything is guidance to a certain extent https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

getting close

We are ok,think we should start seeing some snow maybe in a hr.radar seems to be showing this right now for here,your temps shouldnt rise any

that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run

Wow,i was wondering if it was snowing didnt get a chance to look at OBS now i know

I still dunno,we usually have warn air in place here and start as more of a mix.Its really rare in our parts to already have cold air in place during a winter storm,so theres not gonna be much data incorporated to me than other skill

I dunno,the RAP just did the same

RAP looks more North than most guidance last run

National Weather Service Nashville TN 138 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 No major changes will be made to the forecast for the very cold and snowy weather coming our way. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place area-wide from 6 PM today until 6 am Tuesday. Snow was already crossing the Ms River early this afternoon. Short range models show the snow spreading rapidly eastward into our area late this afternoon and evening. Snowflakes should start to fall in our western counties by 4 or 5 PM. By midnight, the ground will likely be covered for most areas along and west of I-65 with an inch of fresh powder, and up to 2 inches for some spots. By daybreak Monday, much of the Mid State will have snow cover, averaging 1 to 3 inches. Then, the second main wave will move across the area late Monday morning through afternoon with the greatest additional accumulations focused along a band from Waynesboro and Lawrenceburg northeast to Crossville and Jamestown. Models have become as agreeable and consistent as we can hope for with winter wx in our region. We are still expecting all snow with event totals averaging 1 to 3 inches over our northwest counties and 4 to 7 inches across our southern and Plateau counties. Areas around Clarksville could come up a little short, especially with the second wave tomorrow falling mostly south of I-40. Some spots in the main band across the south and Plateau could over-achieve with 7-8 inches under locally enhanced bands. Nashville Metro is on the edge of the higher band, so a small shift in this band could raise or lower totals for Metro. The snow will taper off Monday night as temperatures plunge further. Lows by Tuesday morning will be around 10 degrees with wind chills down in the single digits below zero for much of the area. A wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed, but we will wait til later tonight or Monday before focusing more on the cold. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 After the snow leaves, bitterly cold, dry air will grip the Mid State Tuesday through Wednesday. A fresh blanket of snow will enhance the cold temperatures. Highs will be limited to the teens for many areas on Tuesday and down near zero Tuesday night. The snow on the ground will not go anywhere through midweek with these frigid, yet not record-setting temperatures. Temps will finally climb above freezing Thursday just before another system comes our way with another chance for snow and another blast of Arctic cold air. Latest models show potential for up to an inch of snow with this fast moving system late Thursday through Friday followed by more bitter cold and dry air for the weekend. &&

Looks closer to the NAM what its been showing IMHO

yeah its definite showing more QPF this run

Yall did warm up,we went to 28 here but the last couple hrs its dropped to 26

Its already past,look at the WPC maps

I'd take that,it snows all day tomorrow basically.Short range models dont show much past mid morning here,sure there will flakes flying around most of the day

Yeah seems strange,this is even west of Nashville it shows ZR

Short range models look more faster with this system.HRRR even shows some mixing almost all the way to the Ky border but the thermal profiles dont support that

Good luck to yall,man you stole the snow dome from Nashville it seems

Ill watch it for the Friday system,Euro lost it today somewhat but the GFS still has it,who know at this point

Think its mesoscale now,i doubt the Euro will change much myself

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1054 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 We are about to take the cold plunge. Taking a look at some 00Z models tonight, messaging remains the same for 3 to 4 inches of snow to fall areawide starting Sunday evening and through the entire day Monday. Some areas could see larger accumulation amounts between 5 to 6 inches in any heavier bands that move through. Looking at the near term, the sharp cold front bringing the first real blast of arctic air is right on the cusp of western TN. The coldest air tonight will be across the western half as the cold front drapes across Middle TN. Lows across all of Middle Tennessee tonight will range from 10s in the NW to 20s in the SE. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach 30 with many places struggling to reach 25. Temperatures are not forecast to get above freezing again until Thursday, so that is close to 110 consecutive hours below freezing. PLEASE check in on those most vulnerable and prepare accordingly for an extended period of bitterly cold temperatures.