jaxjagman

There is plenty of blocking into Mongolia/Russia,the problem to me is with the blocking into the Barents Sea.But the EPS looks better to me than yesterday,its much colder into Canada.It would even be better that the blocking into Barents goes into the Greenland Sea.But i guess it's baby steps maybe,we got rid of the Bering Sea ridge and now have a active STJ as @Houston mentioned

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

And it should be a pattern change upcoming unlike we are seeing now,look at East Asia after D3

Merry Christmas to all by the way!! I left one out the more important one,while yes it's a -NAO,its still a more based -ENAO

Basically in winter time when you see rising heights into Mongolia and troughs into East China trough Japan, it should look like this days after or around 8 days give or take When you see the opposite it should in general be the opposite. While the NAO also plays a big part in winter time for us,you'd still want to see a -WNAO and not a -ENAO, a -ENAO the trough axis moves further east more towards the east coast,you'd prefer a -WNAO,especially for us west of the Cunberland

More like a NINO the AR out west

Me too,i talked about the EAMT last night but if its a strong one you should in general show strong HP into Siberia/Mongolia,weak one its still warm in the SE,dont see that right now.Its flipped in a NIno compared to a Nina,weak EAMT is BN temps in the SE,looking at todays run of the EPS,but it still slightly better

All good,most of those years were in a more NINA compared to this one,but i havent seen you post much so welcome to the board

Yeah but comparing 2000 to 2025 is nonsense

The oceans the last few weeks has been pretty much Chaotic from Kelvin Waves and the Rossby Wave Train,no end in site,why you see the RMMS do all this flip flopping sorta speaking

Like most people that own pay sites,they just are click baits so you subscribe

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO,i know last Jan was a WQBO?

I dunno,but the (EAWM,East Asian Winter Monsoon should be coming up which could possibly shift the HP into Siberia,with troughs extending into East Asia into the Pac,im just gonna use the EPS I.E,this could seemingly change the pattern as we get into the New Year,for how long,really have no clue

Yeah but you can use Cyclonic for free,that sight is more or less click bait,open my wallet https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

Probably better off just to reshuffle the patten and see what happens and put the MJO back into the Maritime once again. I always wondered myself the past several days of what lag effects the extreme -PDO has to do with the atmospheric patterns, back into the July and August,you havent seen these values ever since the early 1850's,just because you see these daily values each day rise and fall I.E., WPO,that's like saying the ENSO went positive today so the pattern is going to flip the next day from Nina to Nino it dont work that way,plus we are talking about the largest body of water on earth,the Pacific https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

That's what i'm gonna call it now "The Pig"...lol

Sure its still a work in progress,post this just to see around New Years if its close to a severe look,cant get cold bring on severe

Looks like more like the GFS in the long range,anoms are like 30F-AN on NYD

Excellent,i did some research of the DMI earlier today and gave up because of the ENSO,but these years into 2010 and 2022 like you mentioned in the modern day era more or less had like the same pattern to some extent with whats going on in the WP,even tho you had a more strong Nina in 2010 and even less so in 2022 and even more less so this year,the ENSO still plays a part into the IO

Yeah but its still more like NINO than NINA,you generally see the Atmospheric River out west in a NINO not NINA