CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake. Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.
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With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet. That said this one does have that look.
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Yes that is the positive take away but we need a couple more trending runs though.
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.70 is no bueno for Wake on zr
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It's a better look though. Was afraid the trend was going to be worse
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Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look
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Queen, Could you tell me the SREF snow mean for RDU
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One of the posts I saw pointed to the fact that the global models may not be capturing the mid-level temps very well
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Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU. We were borderline anyways. Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now. Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess.
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Thanks for the insight Matthew.
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One thing the NAM seems to be pointing too on a more global scale for this storm is that the precip will go further north. Whether correct to not I don't know
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Pretty sure the reason we don't rely on NAM beyond ~48hrs is the precip projections are low score. Not sure on the other aspects it can sniff out though. Like dew points,etc.
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Oh, Almost forgot about that potential feature in storms like this. Definitely have an effect up this way wrt available moisture
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beenskip, weaker HP and further west
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Thanks guys
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Do you still that track mid-MS to off ILM?
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How is the sounding for RDU on the 18z? Should I ask?
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any 850 track south and east of the triangle cannot be all bad.
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NAM and Euro lining up is great for mby but I also realize this is premature. Need that alignment to hold for about 36hrs longer than I'll become more of a believer.
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Thanks Falls and Queencity. CantralNC, After January 2017 I'm all conditioned for this one to have the sharp cutoff west of my location
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Queencity, Might I impose for the RDU numbers?
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Well, he does have a day job.
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Thanks for the fresh update. As I recall front end thumps don't work out so well for our area usually. Back to the sw piedmont usually has better luck. The moisture always seem to get here too late and not before the nose
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Not so much for us I think
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Well, sounds like Wake county is bowing out of the game.
