CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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2 days of cold around the 15th per the 0z gfs. Then we re-warm. You can just about stick a folk in any decent snow potential in NC (outside the mts) for this winter imho
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Forgetting averages, amounts, and odd storms in early Dec for the moment... Just looking at what time is left on the game clock for 2019 winter it is hard to see another storm right now. This pattern of cold, then warm, then rinse with rain, then repeat is not going to cut it. We seem to have another cold shot coming on deck late next week but that is still iffy, then we warm again, after that we get into post Feb 15th. Then we begin to live on a model and a prayer to beat the odds
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What happened to the cold air next weekend? I'm not forecast to get below freezing even at night.
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WS, Does it bring any moisture back north tonight?
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That's got some real estate to cover in a short period of time
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Have a hard time believing we will get more than about 2' in Wake but like was posted earlier ULL's can do some odd things
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Is that the 850 coming over northern Ala?
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Question is which way will it be tweaked.
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Looks like the latest NAM is not affecting forecasts.
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That works for me skywarn. Is everybody ditching the ride because of the latest NAM. Sorry, been away
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Looks like RDU area went up a bit as well but so did zr danger
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Keep in mind the HRRR because of the rapidity of its cycle, it's discovery can be progressive. Let's hope it holds where it is.
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grit also posted the January forecast pattern map yesterday and it looked cold.
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Is that forecast call taking in the 12z suite?
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That's because it is euronating on our snow event.
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buckeye, Thanks. Makes sense. Dammit burns!
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buckeye, why did you wipe my post on the storm thread asking Doppler about the HRRR end of run time?
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Thanks Gun. RDU looks to be hanging on to sleet at that time so better than frz rain
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You don't even flip back on Sunday afternoon/evening?
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I'm no expert by any means and we do have a few here. Although models were showing it yesterday the NWS has only released a real threat notification early this morning as more of the shorter range models began to show a decent hit of zr. That said I doubt we see more than .20 accrual in the RDU as indicated so don't get too wound up about numbers like .70 Also, we will not have 2m (ground level) temps below freezing for that long and even then we are talking 31 degrees or so. All said I suspect there will be some power outages in the area. Hopefully for not long duration.
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NWS calling for .20 ice accrual as well around Wake in their latest graphic and also mention "up to a quarter inch" in their text product. As Seinfeld's dad said-"I don't like the sound of that."
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It bears watching for sure every hour now. Will be praying for sleet to hang on longer and not change to zr unless ground temps can go above 32.
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Didn't the HRRR also pick up on the warm nose around RDU in the Jan 2017 storm. I know that whole thing was a late discovery but thought the HRRR saw it as well as the NAM around this time before things began.
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Fish's comments wrt temps up north not being very cold were in reference to getting any copious amounts of zr which he believes will not be likely in the area. Rather more of a rain/snow event. That's reasonable. We might be lucky this isn't January or at least the HP which was modeled as a 1040 earlier in the week is now being projected as only a 1033/34 or so.
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Thanks guys
