CaryWx

MJO drives it. In many cases (depending on what you what to see happen) it's the kabal force measure on how these indices will behave.

That signal has been there for about 3 days now right? Give or take a day.

That's the one I'm not going to sleep yet on. Possibilities out there for supportive temps are not totally out of the picture. At least not yet anyway.

I dunno about the "back end of winter" buckeye but believe the next period will be good. February overall is still up in the air but have to admit the first week looking better.

Yep, Also would like to see NAM inside 40hrs or so. Not bad at 56 right now if seeing that right.

Nope

Perfect for Roanoke to Richmond

Is this all one storm next week just the models haven't nailed down the right day yet possibly?

This precip event also overperformed based on forecasting as well. Never supposed to get this much last night I believe.

That almost sounds like a country song.

Didn't you get the memo today? It's winter cancel

This wasn't our storm

Is there a slp off the coast?

Also looks like snow deepening all the way down to Chester SC. That's below Rock Hill

Yeah I'm trying to figure out how this is going to translate for the Triangle. I may be too far north if it goes due east.

Can see it on radar and changover moving ese now. Burlington next?

You look to be right on the edge wow

Greensboro should be switching over in the next hour I would think.

Is that the ULL center rotating just northwest of Columbia, SC

Yes, been watching that too for last couple hours. It's going to be pretty nice for someone beyond the mtns

Update from RAH NWS .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Friday... Forecast reasoning remains relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, with main forecast changes to total snow accumulations thanks largely to a lack of measurable snow as of yet. The back edge of the precipitation shield was sharply eroded late last night-early this morning and did not allow sufficient precipitation rates to overcome the marginally cold boundary layer to support for wet-bulb cooling over the Piedmont, so mainly rain resulted until about 1230Z over the Triad, when the visibility subsequently decreased to between 3/4SM and 1 1/2SM for a short time in a briefly heavier band of snow. The p-type has since changed back to rain as precipitation intensity has decreased. That will continue to be the case until precipitation intensity increases with deeper ascent and the arrival of the deformation band now over wrn NC, which is expected over the wrn Piedmont late this afternoon-early evening, then ewd across the remainder of cntl NC early tonight. Given that no accumulations were observed this morning, and it is unlikely any of consequence will occur until the deformation band and west to east change over to snow arrives, after dark for all but the NW Piedmont, previously forecast snow accumulations have generally been halved - 1-2 in the Warning area to a coating to an inch in the Advisory area, with localized higher amounts still possible. Will allow the current headlines to continue and reassess changes with the main afternoon forecast package.

great minds

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