CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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GEFS might tell a better story here
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540 lines in far different places
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Hard to buy those temps but even if they are 5-7 degrees warmer it's still really chilly
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If there is ever an anticipation for the euro ensembles it is this afternoon.
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I'd trim that freezing rain to .20" for a nice winter wonderland look that likely still keeps your heat running.
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If we are to get a decent storm (NC) my hunch is it will not be this weekend but mid next week as has been hinted at back-and-forth forth for some time now on various modeling.
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You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you? I think you'll get a few more
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That's worked so well for us here in the Triangle all winter. Cold rain with some annoying mixing. Rinse and repeat.
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Looking to see if these LR models align more to eventual reality around the 4 day mark. So far your theory for this year's winter and LR model performance seems to be spot on
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I dunno...just sometimes...
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Thanks Dave
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Feb 20th?? How much through Feb 15th?
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Don't think it did.
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You may be on to something here. If so the behavior seems to be following suit with these latest runs. If there is some correction at the 4-day mark, back to an equilibrium of sorts I sense a 33 and rain for a lot of NC next weekend with perhaps a little ice/sleet to the north and western sections of NC and upstate SC. [w/snow in mtns of course] Been the theme here all winter. - "Look kids! Big Ben, Parliament!"
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Not sure I like the sound of that down here in piedmont caroline
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Watching broadcast mets have to backtrack has been interesting
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Some of me old bones just popped looking at that.
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Grit, do you see a chance developing (blending everything we know now) for basically a wet frontal passage system (mostly all rain) with the hope (not certain) of a 2nd system coming in to really drop the wintery stuff in NC (outside the mtns because they will do well regardless)
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The only thing that bothers me with the gfs (at present) is it's more or less consistent progging of rain in NC. Cannot ignore that completely. Has some support from Icon and the UKMET (144hr) last night
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This one makes coffee too.
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Not bothered by the gfs tropical 6z run either. I like to take what we've seen to date so far overall across the models. More frozen runs for NC than anything pure rain. 6z gfs went to lunch early today. Maybe it'll be back for the 12z
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That's the end of UKMET's run though right?
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Thanks grit. Makes sense now
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That's wonky looking
