CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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We don't need it to bomb out quite so soon nor as intensely over a short period
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That's close, but ugly for NC piedmont
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What I was thinking---when they 'dry out' cold we have increased chances usually
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Not a PAC jet per se but issues in the pacific not cooperating to provide best set up scenario for eastern conus
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Check out MA forum--PAC jet issues
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Yep, GFS trying to lay down snow across south in the 1/27-28 timeframe. Next weekend+Monday has possibilities for sure across several models now. Specifics TBD.
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Don't think I've ever seen a 180hr projection map like that. Good lord!
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Setting up your own bowling pins Bob? You should really take it easy on 5921.
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That perma-negative NAO has been 10 days out for awhile and guess what? It's still 10 days out.
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That looks odd though to me Josh
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Starting to show up on 0z GFS too
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Incoming for next Saturday?
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What it tells me is that lobe on Monday is very transient. We could hit 60 mid-late next week before the cold crush comes in
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You can't say that with any certainty yet.
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Yes, still 7 days away
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Yeah watching the 12z GFS roll out and looks like 6z storm moved north
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Ok, but there's potential SC coastals with this upcoming set up.
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Getting that feeling now we will see something between the 25th and 31st but too far out still for details, exact locations, and amounts
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Yep. Saw that and only 7 days out. Guessing until we get past Sunday the models will have trouble zeroing in on storms
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Our GFS snowstorm on the 26th disappeared again
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I'll take my chances down here in NC. Storms seldom run across the gulf coast and ots. We get some overrunning even up this way if only a semblance of amplification
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I'll be curious to see if this holds on tomorrow's models and doesn't slide out to the 27th or 28th
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Need to get closer to the -nao initiation date. If it slides or stays in the +10 day range I'll begin to have my doubts
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The "cliff diving" I think up and down most of the seaboard is the guidance today kind of flipped a bit for next week based on what we were seeing yesterday. Let's give it a another 24-36hrs and see.
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You guys can talk about too cold (suppression) for snow all you want but I know one thing living in the southeast for over 50yrs. We need cold temps for snow and they do not come around very often for any decent duration. We are in the se part of of north american continent with water on two sides and mountains to the west. The precip will almost always come. Guaranteed. The cold enough temps?--not so much.
