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CaryWx

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Everything posted by CaryWx

  1. Kind of what I'm expecting but wishcasting a jog of 850s further south and east
  2. Most models agreeing now and focusing the center on NE NC/SE VA just not on intensity?
  3. CMC suppression really making the 12z euro a thing of anticipation now. Would think better alignment would be in the cards by now instead of the ways this phase/no-phase is getting handled still.
  4. gfs does seem to be handling this whole thing in a clunky fashion run-to-run more so than how the European is managing it.
  5. I didn't really see that this time on 12z gfs. The 12z euro going to be interesting to see how it continues to handle.
  6. Where does the miller-B transfer look to set up? From SC coast to off Hatteras?
  7. Remember it's the NAM at 84. Overall set up more reliable than p-type specifics/locations and amounts right?
  8. I'll defer to you here certainly Matt but are you seeing severe ice in the Triangle?
  9. Both the ECMWF Ens (M) and (C) have improved for my area over last three runs. Small changes but certainly gotten better
  10. I actually think things improved well for the Triangle on the 6z model outputs. Coupled with last night's runs there is less threat of a major ice storm and trend to more snow/sleet. 6z EPS shows a move towards gfs
  11. maybe, but UK could cave tomorrow if euro holds on it's solution too
  12. Noticed the 540 line on the CMC dancing over Wake co. Mixing a bit there you think?
  13. Won't be up for it but would love the euro to tac back a little towards the gfs and cmc
  14. Looks colder and less amped than the earlier euro run. Less precip. maybe? but still decent. Not overwhelming ice
  15. Well now we have suppressed and amped among the leaders in the LR. Maybe the midnight runs can sort it out but have a feeling it will be Tues night (Weds 0z) runs
  16. Ok, confused again. Faster phase means more ice in central NC/SC right?
  17. Let's see if the 18z gfs still has it (2 waves) that way. Any chance the euro has this wrong?
  18. Sorry was referring to the path of the ULL 850 across Ga/SC and NC
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