CaryWx

You're now practically in the sweet spot 21hrs out Brick.

I hear you but typically your lead off comments 9x out of 10 would be attributing low totals to ip/zr. Now we contend with air that is too dry and cold aloft. We indeed live on a cutting edge weather gradient

From RAH as of 5am A wave of surface low pressure will then move offshore along the stalled Arctic front later Friday into Friday night, with a mid- level shortwave trough moving across NC. This will give the first significant accumulating snow of the season to many parts of central NC. Snow will spread from SE to NW from the late afternoon into the overnight hours, heaviest and most widespread from about 00z to 06z and exiting to the east by about 09z (possibly ending as freezing drizzle) as dry air quickly moves in. Essentially all models, including the GFS and ECMWF as well as short-term high-res models like the NAM, RAP, and HRRR, have trended farther west with the low and its associated precipitation shield during the last 24 hours. Thus raised POPs to likely to categorical across most of the region except the far NW, and increased forecast snowfall totals slightly. Generally expect 3-4 inches east of I-95, 2-3 inches from the US-1 corridor to I-95, and a dusting to 2 inches NW of there. It should be stressed that there is still some uncertainty on these totals, in particular on how far west the snow shield will make it, as it will be fighting dry air in the NW. The GFS continues to insist on a stronger jet streak and associated upper divergence, and thus brings the snow much farther west than other models do. Forecast amounts may have to be raised a bit further if models continue their westward trend, though the 06z NAM and GFS look very similar to their 00z runs. Thus for now continue the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories as is, and will reassess the need to change anything after the 12z guidance comes in. One thing we are confident about is that the column will be sufficiently cold for snow nearly everywhere. The one exception is the far SE (mainly southern Sampson County) where models show still having enough warm air aloft to stay sleet and freezing rain for much of the event. Thus a tenth to a quarter inch of freezing rain is still forecast in southern parts of Sampson county. Lows will be in the mid-teens to lower-20s on Friday night with continued north winds around the deepening low off the coast. This will bring wind chills down to the single digits to lower-teens.

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

kuchera

It's a good run for the euro.

not yet

euro telling other models--I got game too

How good is the RGEM at this range?

Can someone drop in Fishel's magic 2:30 tweet if it's out?

meathead meteorology?

This storm has moved southwest. More into NC. I noticed the moisture on earlier models building more into SC so wondered if that is what was happening.

Well, rock solid and one of the most steady run-to-run. If true will be pretty good.

Total thru Sun morning

As soon as I spoke the RGEM brings glory back to the Triangle.

I would be careful here. Don't think we're going back o 3-6 in the Triangle...but we might

Is it slowing down or speeding up in your opinion or about same pace? I do see the larger precip fields and denser moisture

Looks more amplified to me but LP further east than 06z?

Just watched WRAL 11pm weather. They have completely abandoned any snowfall amount predictions now Forget this chart we know it's old. What's odd is they did not even hazard to go with an updated one in the broadcast but rather punted to tomorrow morning. Sort of disappointed they backed off the courage to do that.

"and" differentiator so it's ambiguous. (including the Triangle) could be referencing the former and not the latter. But it's petty for this thread.

Not Triangle the viewing area. I suspect points around Rocky Mount are going to get a bigger hit. I appreciated her info on why they didn't give in to the short range models right now. As always the northwest trend seems to happen in these parts.

I will sing their praises in the snow

Please tell me you're being a bit facetious here