CaryWx

What's a good Nino signal for next year for the southeast? I think no more than moderate. Maybe 1.5-1.75?? Asking the experts. Thanks

If that ULL at 500 on the 18z gfs could just get some intensity going we'd have good storm

Looks like a mtns and foothills storm to me unless something changes

I actually think you're being a little generously east here and I'm not usually in your grouse boat

From NWS RAH longer forecast... Models have trended significantly slower with the trough, with a closed low even developing and tracking to our south, helping a surface low deepen off the NC coast. This would result in a wetter solution for our region than previously thought, so bumped up POPs to chance during this period. Northerly flow around the low and a weak high over New England may result in temperatures cold enough for some snow or mixed rain/snow. The 12z GFS is especially aggressive with depicting this potential, but even the 12z ECMWF trended more in this direction. Model soundings appear it would be more of question of rain vs snow instead of ice. Almost half of 12z GEFS at least have some measurable snow in some part of central NC, with less CMC ensembles and only a small percentage of ECMWF ensembles showing it. Uncertainty this far out is quite high, and would like to see more consistency in the models. Even still, the latest model trends at least justified introducing a chance of rain or snow in most places Saturday night. Because of the uncertainty in the overall setup this weekend, confidence in temperatures this weekend is low, but for now forecast highs are slightly below normal.

Released a weather virus? Darn clever those Chinese!

I usually give it until Feb 20th on the calendar. If there is nothing showing on the 10day once we get to 2/20 I tend to check out because now were hoping for the 2nd week of March or beyond for the LR proggs and well...that's just betting against climo and you're staying in the casino too long.

Isn't this pretty late to make any difference winterwx wise. Even for NC outside the mountains? Downstream effects would be after Feb 25th right?

4 'ninas in a row is highly rare. When was the last one?

That SSW will be too late I'm afraid

Well, the OP run anyway

When was the last time we had 4 Ninas in a row?

SSW not looking to be major I'm hearing.

So if I'm reading this correctly cluster-1 with the highest percentage supports this statement below? Cluster-4 has it too but not so much for the southeast "If the Hudson Bay vortex ends up being two separate areas as is hinted at, that could open the door for more cold air damming to sneak in east of the mountains." Not that it is any more likely as 31% isn't a fantastic chance to start with but decent among 4 cluster possibilities.

GaWx, Do you know when we would expect to see the wind shift/reversal if it does actually occur? As always, great synthesis on the upcoming forecast

What about the coming SSWE?

The yield is not much better for mby though.

Not really an inland runner

hug that model now

Agree here. They do seem to can-kick on many occasions but precise timing at the long range is not a banner component for them

Please look at the composite ensembles for the other major LR models. Criminy folks

That almost sounds like a troll post. And believe me, I'm a dreaded sun angle guy. However I'm also astute enough to know sun-angle has little bearing on winter storm occurrence opportunities. At least during the season. It is more an issue with staying power for snow cover and the like. By the way in our red neck of the woods it's not really relevant until about 2/15 or so.

I caution folks on the northwest trend. This is a transient state. Wobbles and full on shifts can and do happen.

That pic is bigfoot blurry