michsnowfreak

4 top 5 futility, yikes I would be as ornery as cromartie. I would definitely agree that nobody in the forum knows futility as much as Toronto (relative to their average that is). We've had futility months and we certainly have had undesirable winters. But this is why I constantly harping on the fact that regardless of how bad a pattern looks, when you live in a region that gets snow thru April, you just can't jump the gun early.

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

Looks like some good Lake effect Snow in Michigan after the storm passes. But good luck on knowing where the bands will set up until now cast time.

I'll take the hires Nam. If only the weather was easy aa picking your favorite model run lol.

Snow slowly melted throughout the day today, got up to 37 and remains damp.

The Euro amd gfs could not be more different 24 hours out here.

Oh I know. I just meant early on. A few hours of temperature spike and dry slot are imminent.

At the same time, it seems realistic to think that dynamic cooling will occur in the late afternoon/early evening with those rates.

1.5" of snow this morning. Very scenic early but getting melty now with the warm nose.

Theres a difference between below avg snow & futility though. Feb Ninos tend to be a mixed bag snow-wise.

Do you have a rain gauge?

Did the city proper get any accumulation?

I'm super jealous but as I recall you were due. So enjoy!

Still a lot to sort out. Icon has a further qest track but also throws a lot more snow out this. UK kind of between Icon and Euro for here with CMC and gfs pretty much in agreement with each other. Ensemble means for all three seem to be following their ops.

Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker.

I dont get the confrontation, I really dont. I mean we all want whats best for our backyards. And raindance definitely has weather knowledge, but his bashing of you and others is not cool. I mean, I hope all snow lovers get to enjoy some, Albuquerque included, but it seems as if he is getting joy out of hoping the east coast gets no snow. If a storm will give the east coast rain and me snow, of course I say let it rain in Boston! But if Im out of the game (as Albuquerque would be in any eastern storm), why would I care? I guess Ill be petty too....a warm, below avg snow winter here in MI is still colder and snowier than Albuquerque

Im not a good analog person lol. I can tell you how much snow fell when, but cant tell you the origin of it. I mean, we got 16.7" from a bowling ball type storm GHDII and have had many gulf lows produce the general 6-12. Also, will be interesting to see how LES performs in the storms wake.

I thought this was interesting from DTX: Still early to expect high forecast confidence as the event appears dependent on the interaction of a strong shortwave through Mexico and very strong trough digging southward across the Canadian Rockies. What is interesting is that both of these potential vorticity maxima appear to be born out of a Pacific trough sometime Wednesday. The potential exists for heavy snowfall across the area and significant winter impacts this weekend.

I thought we would get a heavy burst but then with rain and temps rising to 40 we would just see it washed away. Would have done nothing but give a little padding to our meager 3.1" season to date total.

Checking webcams it seems the snow portion in general around us was a dud. Takes the sting away from watching it wash away this afternoon lol. Now nail biting time for friday

I never had high hopes for this one. Even if we got accumulation it would be washed away. Not sure what you mean another season of busted storms, other than the Dec 23 storm last year, all other storms met or even exceeded expectations.

How is the ice safe to skate on the Rio Grande when Albuquerque is way above freezing almost every day?

So nice to see more active AFDs Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 615 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of SE Michigan on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system lifts into the area. The Tuesday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered and slick roads with lowered visibilities. * A rapid accumulation of heavy, wet snow is expected between 4 AM and noon Tuesday for areas south of I-69. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible mainly across the Irish Hills. Temperatures rising above freezing will cause snow to change over to rain from south to north from late morning into the afternoon. * Longer duration of snow in the Tri-Cities will bring snow totals of 3 to 5 inches there. Lower confidence exists in timing the transition to rain here, and a low chance (10%) does exist for higher snow totals if snow remains the predominant precip type through Tuesday evening. * The combination of heavy wet snow with southeast winds of around 30 mph may lead to some isolated downed tree limbs and sporadic power outages. Onshore winds will be higher in the Thumb with gusts up to 40 mph. * Strong west winds area expected to develop Wednesday in the wake of the storm system. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with the strongest winds from Metro Detroit southward to the Indiana and Ohio border. * A quick hitting clipper will bring the potential for a widespread inch of snow Thursday morning. * Confidence is increasing for another major winter storm late Friday and Saturday. The potential exists for significant snow accumulations across Southeast Michigan. Strong winds, below average temperatures, and lake effect snow appear likely next weekend.

All the ensemble means are looking great for Michigan. Only 4 more nail biting days to go.

I was only 8 years old. But I remember it vividly. Playing in the snow it was very deep.