michsnowfreak

The pattern absolutely verified. It was deep winter for a few weeks, with record breaking cold in the middle of the country. After a parade of snow systems and bitter cold here, London weather has commenced for the thaw. Can kicking has become an overused term.

Honestly anything thru approx Feb 10th would be thread the needle luck. I'm not holding my breath, but definitely liking mid Feb and beyond.

I'm not familiar with how a strong nina would affect the East. But I know here in the lakes there's actually a decent chance of having a very stormy winter. Big on roller coaster patterns.

snowman has officially resigned from the Eric Webb fan club.

No arguments here. Depending what happens the rest of the way, this could be a real wacky winter, especially if the torch followed by cold comes to fruition. So far- -Snowiest Halloween on record -Near zero visibility in snow squalls Nov 27, made for 3 days of white to end November. -Disaster December. Warmth is one thing, but only a trace of snow imby. No days with snow on the ground -Mild first third of January gives way to a 10-12 day siege of deep winter w/ thundersnow, a parade of snowfalls, bitter cold, drifting snow, -30F wind chills, etc -London weather hits during the dead of winter -Rest of the way???

Any posters from southern Wisconsin, I'm curious. Does the MKE temperature sensor seem to be running warm? I notice that MKE is always warmer than everywhere to the north or south, often even warmer than chicago.

TCC went off a cliff when the significance of the cold snap was discussed. The third week of january was top 3 coldest in almost the entire middle third of the country, something he called run of the mill. At Detroit, it was the 7th coldest. We have talked to death about how shitty the first half of this winter has been, especially December. There is not one single person in here who is remotely acting like this is a good winter for cold and snow lovers. But for the cromartie-lites, the mere discussion of ongoing cold or snow is a trigger. Hey look I can play with xmacis too! Detroit coldest Jan 14-20

I think you mean 1877-78.

There's still snowcover but it's been melting. The water content of the pack has helped the melt be slow. There will still be piles but today and tonight should do it for a snowpack. A 2 week stretch of pretty deep winter is definitely not bad for a strong Nino, just hoping we do it again the 2nd half of Feb.

Now to add some actual piss and moan banter. No matter the pattern or expectation, I HATE watching snow melt. Far more irritating to me than any model failure.

Dont jinx either of us lol. We still need almost 9" more to avoid #20 lol. I have extensively researched both our snowiest and least snowy winters, using local newspapers as well. The "open" winters, as they called the low snow years, were just sh*t winters. Some were unreal with warmth and just terrible patterns for snow/cold (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1948-49, 1952-53), but others had plenty of opportunities where we sat cold and dry (1936-37, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66). When I say cold and dry, none of them were particularly cold winters in mean temp, but they all had plenty of times where it was cold enough and we just wouldnt snow. Detroit has not been in a snow-hole winter since 1995-96. However, this happened several times in the days of yore (see 57-58, 60-61, 65-66). In a demented way, Id even argue we were in a snow-hole-lite in 1977-78. Hard to say that in a 61.7" winter, but snowfall was greater all around us. I wish records existed from the little ice age. There are books written which have pieced together local weather from the 1780s-1860s (records began 1870s) and just like now, winters varied a great deal. But one startling thing is that there were some very cold and very dry, open winters with very little snow. (this is also documented in Minnesota, as there are journals of weather from this time). The slight warming of winters is a help, not a hindrance, to snow chances in a cold climate surrounded by lakes. (while not in a snowbelt, the amount of lake effect and lake enhanced snow has absolutely increased here the last 20 years or so).

We can thank a slightly warmer climate for the absence of those "cold, dry" winters that happened, although infrequently, in the old days. A majority of the least snowy winters were warm, but there were several that were closer to avg or even though mild overall, had a long stretch of cold weather that didnt produce a lot of snow (1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66 just to name a few....57-58 and 65-66 had warm decembers but cold thereafter).

I have to check with DTX why some of those years are off pre-1900. I used the #s based on the official data (I have had it all long before xmacis existed).

When did I ever say Toledo gets different weather patterns? I said in recent years theres been a big cutoff, larger than usual, which is 100% true. Last winter alone, Detroit had SEVERAL snowstorms that Toledo didnt get anything (or rain) from, and the same was seen in 2021-22 (to a lesser extent). Meanwhile, in 2021, Toledo area had near 20" on the ground in Feb. I never said Toledo cant score, or that Detroit cant get bad winters. But Toledo has been in a snow hole far more often than Detroit. Average snowfall is 7" or 8" less in Toledo than Detroit. Oh, and btw...if youre going to compare Detroit to Toledo, you have to start in the same year. Toledos records didnt start til 1891. So get rid of Detroits #2 and #6 least snowy winter (actually, Toledo DID have records in 1889-90, they reported just 6.0" for by far their least snowy winter, but for some reason, NWS starts records in 1891). So since 1891, Detroits #10 least snowy is 22.0", more than Toledo. Also, lets compare Detroits top 10 to Toledo's top 10: 01.) 94.9" - 2013-14 ---- 01.) 86.3" - 2013-14 02.) 93.6" - 1880-81 ---- 02.) 73.1" - 1977-78 03.) 78.0" - 1925-26 ---- 03.) 68.2" - 1981-82 04.) 74.0" - 1981-82 ---- 04.) 63.7" - 1895-96 05.) 71.7" - 2007-08 ---- 05.) 60.6" - 1966-67 06.) 69.1" - 1899-00 ---- 06.) 59.4" - 1969-70 06.) 69.1" - 2010-11 ---- 07.) 58.1" - 2007-08 08.) 67.2" - 1907-08 ---- 08.) 56.8" - 1993-94 09.) 66.5" - 1929-30 ---- 09.) 56.0" - 2004-05 10.) 65.7" - 2004-05 ---- 10.) 53.9" - 1952-53 Since 1891, # of winters in each category: Toledo ---------Detroit 80”+ - 1 -------- 1 70”-80”- 1 ----- 3 60-70” – 3 ----- 11 50-60” – 7 ----- 14 40-50” – 20 ---- 39 30-40” – 43 ---- 34 20-30” – 33 ---- 23 10-20” – 20 ---- 8 M data – 5

Here's the top 20 01) 12.9" - 1936-37 02) 13.2" - 1881-82 03) 13.7" - 1948-49 04) 15.2" - 1918-19 05) 15.4" - 1965-66 06) 15.8" - 1889-90 07) 16.6" - 1952-53 08) 17.1" - 1968-69 09) 18.0" - 1957-58 09) 18.0" - 1960-61 11) 20.0" - 1982-83 12) 22.0" - 1945-46 13) 22.6" - 1937-38 14) 22.8" - 1943-44 15) 23.2" - 1888-89 16) 23.4" - 1941-42 16) 23.4" - 1997-98 18) 23.7" - 1999-00 19) 24.1" - 2003-04 20) 25.1" - 1988-89

Judging by those pictures, I'm sure they're not strangers to meth either.

It's soupy for sure

I should do a post on that stretch and research some more. That's insane about 1889-90 as it was warm and snowless here. This is on my to-do list lol

What did I miss lol? When did you move?

Agree on all counts. Its like inappropriate touching to the fanatics to point out cold/snow extremes. No one is denying climate change, but the Great Lakes/Midwest is a region with cold winters/hot summers, so most winters, no matter how "warm" they are in the mean, will have some cold/snow stories to be had. And quite honestly, back to the graph chinook posted, I am quite surprised what a bout of deep winter this region saw for a strong Nino. I knew we would have cold shots and snow while some were on a ledge in December, but did not foresee a blast like that. Hoping some more fun is had in Feb/Mar. So much of the season to go, but year-to-year rubber-band snaps can be wild. Locally, there were insane ones from 1880-81 to 1881-82, 1917-18 to 1918-19, and 1981-82 to 1982-83. But the 5 year period from 1877-1882 was downright wild. 1877-78: warm 1878-79: cold 1879-80: warm 1880-81: cold 1881-82: warm

Incredible. Each region of the country has their flaws & beautiful points, but winter in the Great Lakes is always a fun time, especially up north, but even down here in the southern Lakes. @MJO812 needs to move to a lake belt. Colder winters often see less snow in total (2013-14 was an absolute epic defy-reality type scenario of insane cold AND snow) but more snowcover and with lakes and waterways frozen you can see some incredible things (hiking ice caves on the Great Lakes is an incredible experience). Warmer winters are frustration to cold/snowcover lovers (especially here in the southern lakes) BUT the tradeoff can be more storms and more lake effect. Look what just happened with the big arctic blast, lake belts got pummelled. Now the warmth will returning, keeping ice at bay, and if the cold does materialize towards mid-Feb, they will get it again. Warm winters do create more intense storms too; since last winter I have seen thundersnow and blinding snow rates multiple times. Winter just doesnt sustain itself. On the east coast, its clearly more feast/famine to begin with and seems to be getting even more extreme. I cant imagine the frustration snowlovers in nyc are going thru, but it wasnt long ago that nyc was seeing record snowfall (2010s). The wait may be torture but warming oceans and a milder winter climate on the coast may lead to some incredible snowstorms. The famine will outweigh the feast, but when you feast, you will FEAST.

Yes, especially in the east. NYC it was -1.3F, BOS was -1.7F. Here at DTW it was -0.2F.

No way does Escanaba avg 70". I thought there was a map awhile ago from MQT. Ill have to try and find it. But obviously it goes way, WAY up north of there towards Superior.

Very doable for Toronto. Although far from a lock. If Detroit saw not one flake the rest of the way (impossible lol), it would be the 7th least snowy winter. To avoid top 10, just 1.8" more is needed and to avoid top 20, 8.9" more is needed. Much like this stretch of deep winter we are coming out of, should there indeed be a sharp reversal from warmth to cold as we head towards mid-Feb, that still does not sort out the haves and have nots of snowstorms until we are closer in.

Lmao. You've got to be kidding me using that map. And actually that would be monroe county, the downriver area are 2-3 feet. That map shows Pittsburgh got like 6". Every official station in southeast michigan had 45-50" last winter except DTW 37". The fact that toledo had way less (several times we had heavy snow and they had heavy rain) means nothing. It's like saying that buffalo did not get 3 feet of snow since rochester only had 2 inches.