michsnowfreak

JB has always had his cold/snowy bias, but he hasnt been relevant in years. I dont think anyone actually takes him seriously anymore lol. Following anyone (whether its via weather forums, twitter, social media weather pages, etc) with a long enough posting history makes it pretty easy to see who has the cold biases, who has the warm biases, and who is very neutral/unbiased. I follow the neutral guys closely and dismiss the rest.

This map wouldve been better IMO if they had % of avg snowfall instead of just a simple departure, because average snowfall over this huge of a region is all over the place. Also, just to point out, with the colder than avg temp departures of this winter in many places, we heard some point out that the latest 30-year averages are warmer than long term. Well, for many areas in the northern half of this map, especially around the Great Lakes, the latest 30-year snow averages are higher than longterm avg (and I believe they are lower than longterm in some of the southern reaches of the map).

When did you hit the point where you rooted the futility? Just crazy how MLI got skipped all winter. Not that it was particularly snowy ANYWHERE in the region outside the belts, but 8.2" is insane. Goes without saying theyll have a better winter in '25-26.

I have two friends in the UK. They are constantly amazed at our extremes. A cold summer here would still be oppressively hot there, and a warm winter here would be frigid there. An average summer in Detroit is 7° warmer than London, and an average winter in Detroit is nearly 16° colder than London.

Do you HONESTLY enjoy summer in Texas? My cousin has a relative in Texas (lived there for decades) and they absolutely hate summer.

I hope not lol. That's what's good about summer here. We get oppressive heat and humidity but it's nowhere near as long as so many other areas to our south and there are usually refreshing reprieves. Have lakes and rivers everywhere helps too.

Yup, same here. I think the token mild winter of '97-98 is what cemented into my minds what a Nino and Nina and their strengths should do. As Ive said tho, with each passing year Im reminded more and more that ENSO, while important, is just one piece of the puzzle. Because lets face it, we all are interested in whats going to happen and how it happens, but at the end of the day the sensible weather in our backyards is what counts most. 2002-03 and 1951-52 were excellent moderate ninos here.

Interesting, thanks! Big kudos to these threads. I learn a lot from them. Ive been a climate expert in my own area since I was a teenager, and as an adult Ive even developed enough to have a minor in other areas climate . But actually forecasting whats going to happen, I have always been clueless outside of looking at face value on models. The info is also helpful to figure out if any of the odd quirks/trends of recent seasons are related to certain factors or just coincidence. Nov-Dec: Why is winter starting early like always with cold blasts & snow in November (often flakes in Oct) then slamming the brakes in December? 6 of the last 11 years have seen November outsnow December. That should not happen. Only 4 of the past 11 Christmases were white (we usually run 50/50). Jan-Feb: The meat of winter is where we thrive. Longterm warming of these two months has been negligible with January nearly non-existent, and snowfall has never averaged higher than the most recent 30-year norms. We can bank on bouts of deep winter and usually some impressive cold blast to plunge us below zero. Mar-Apr: Why does winter want to suddenly scram following a Feb snow blitz, then come back for an encore in April? 3 consecutive years (2020-2022) saw April outsnow March. Again, that shouldnt happen. And May flakes and late frosts/freezes continue as well.

I had a total 24 hour rainfall of 1.83" (and a T of snow/sleet). DTW had 2.28" (and a T of snow/sleet). Very heavy rain for a time overnight. Nothing remotely close to severe. Mine was broken up as 0.84" in the morning round and 0.99" overnight, while DTW saw 0.77" in morning round and 1.51" overnight. This was the largest 24-hour rainfall at DTW since August 24, 2023 & the largest in Wyandotte since July 10, 2024. Another story was the temps. The morning rain, which began as snow and mixed at times with sleet, came with temps hovering at 34-35F, miserable to say the least. Temps very slowly inched up into the 40s by nightfall, then rapidly rose from 49F to 64F in 1.5 hour around midnight. This is also where DST comes into play. Technically the temp at DTW was 49 at 11pm, 54 at 12am, and 62 at 12:59am, so 62 is yesterdays high. However, from March til November (until we fall back again), the daily temps that go into the climate are actually 1am - 12:59am, not 12-11:59pm. Always thought that was stupid but it is what it is.

Lol theres nowhere near 5 months of summer in MI. Summer weather can span the course of 5 months, just as winter weather can span the course of 7 months...but it isnt constant. Realistically, you can count on a solid 3 months of summer and 4 months winter in southern MI and about 2 months summer and 5 months winter in northern MI. Regardless, it is a fantastic state for 4 seasons.

Thanks guys! It will be something I'll be watching and trying to learn as summer goes on. Plenty of deep winter this year, but hopefully if the Pacific becomes favorable we can get more winter storms with some meat on their bones.

Same here! A low monthly range (warmest 45, coldest 11) and warmer mins and very gray, even more gray than usual. The avg high was +1.9F but the avg low +5.3F, and being the coldest month of the year, it was still cold, just not the deep winter feel most of Jan 2025 was.

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950.... 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53. But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season. I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

From an enso perspective thats already a decent sign...but as we know Enso is just 1 piece of the puzzle.

It was fairly similar here temp wise, but as always snow is always a wild card. Biggest difference here was January was mild in 2021 and cold in 2025 2020-21 vs 2024-25 at Detroit Nov: +4.5 +5.3 ** 3.5” 1.8” Dec: +1.6 +2.2 ** 9.6” 3.6” Jan: +3.5 -2.8 ** 6.4” 8.9” Feb: -4.7 -1.9 ** 21.8” 12.2” Mar: +5.7 +6.0 ** T 0.4” Apr: +1.7 ? ** 3.6” ?

Started as snow here around 7am, just a trace, then quickly turned to rain which at times mixed with sleet, and now some thunder. Temps in the mid-30s.

Jokes aside, everything here was dormant and end-of-winter brown until 2 or 3 days before the end of March then like the snap of a finger the grass got green. Obviously still brown with all the bare trees, tho some have buds.

Cold morning to start April in Michigan. Low was 26F at DTW, but temps near 0F in Marquette with the fresh deep snow.

Some of the photos from northern Michigan the last few days were just incredible. The ice storm in northern lower MI was devastating, but also so beautiful, and as much as 16-19" snow fell in the Marquette area. Absolutely jealous of that snow even though its spring. Here, after a colder than average January & February with ample snowcover days, we went from deep winter to sudden spring, March ending up as the 7th warmest on record and tying with 1961 for the 10th least snowy on record with 0.4". Whats interesting about the warmth is that it was the daytime highs, not lows, that did the heavy lifting. The march max was the 5th warmest on record but the min just the 21st warmest on record. The initial bouts of warmth in March came with still-frozen ground, but a sudden greening of grass took place the last 2 or 3 days of the month.

The models must think it's spring 365 days a year then

Not quite sure how it all works in Germany...I know obviously the basics of -NAO is colder, but from a snow-perspective, the midwest/Great Lakes often get more snow with a +NAO in winter. Its the fringe parts of the season (ie Nov/Mar-Apr) when we root on -NAO. A DJF -NAO usually screams suppression so we have to rely soley on NW flow. Im not sure if the same can be said for new england wrt the benefits of -NAO vs +NAO. And Im really not well-versed at all in the climate of Germany.

Is there a link for this Grok? I have lots of data that Ive saved, computed, etc, but not with AI lol. Heres my snowcover days data. I didnt start that til midway thru the 1999-00 season, however, so snowcover N/A for me for 1995-96 thru 1999-00 (an idiotic move considering Jan 1999). Days with T+ 1”+ 3”+ 5”+ 10”+ 2000-01 87 66 53 35 12 2001-02 60 35 12 2 0 2002-03 106 67 43 19 2 2003-04 77 60 41 25 0 2004-05 102 65 51 36 5 2005-06 73 46 25 16 0 2006-07 75 49 15 7 1 2007-08 105 69 43 21 2 2008-09 88 62 47 38 22 2009-10 84 58 31 25 3 2010-11 94 81 70 58 14 2011-12 43 20 8 1 0 2012-13 75 52 28 9 0 2013-14 119 95 81 75 52 2014-15 80 74 59 45 36 2015-16 59 37 17 3 0 2016-17 51 39 25 16 1 2017-18 83 61 43 33 5 2018-19 66 39 12 7 0 2019-20 64 41 20 7 0 2020-21 64 47 28 16 7 2021-22 73 49 27 10 0 2022-23 50 35 19 3 0 2023-24 35 18 12 6 0 2024-25 74 44 21 8 0

Thanks. I mustve added something incorrectly when I calculated my avg. Never heard of grok lol.

Always look forward to your input! Some crazy stats on DC. Especially the 80 in Jan - while we have had 60s in Jan before, nothing close to that. We actually havent hit 50 in Jan in 4 years. Looks like summer like warmth in the mid atlantic while the far northern tier gets a winter storm. I dont worry about annual cold/snow here and the edges, as we still get very early and late snows. My big thing is keeping the winter fun and deep winter periods from mid-November to mid-March. My bigger soapbox, and I KNOW itll change one of these years soon, is the wildness of how we havent had a great December since 2017. We have had several white Christmases since then, but as a whole, have to go back to 2017 to get a great December! Only 1 finished snowier than avg, and that was by 0.7". Every other month has had standouts since then. In the 7 years since that snowy winter of 2017-18.... October- 4 of 7 with snow, 1 being measurable November- 6 of 7 snowier than avg December- 1 of 7 snowier than avg January- 2 of 7 snowier than avg February- 3 of 7 snowier than avg March- 1 of 7 snowier than avg April- 3 of 6 snowier than avg May- 3 of 6 with snow, 1 being measurable