michsnowfreak

Why thank you, I enjoy it lol

If you look close so they weren't really lowered. Just some noise changes.

The 1880s have the most extremes on record Winter wise. There were several bitterly cold winters and several absolute torch winters. The warmest Winter on record by far is 1881-82. The 2010s were both the snowiest and wettest decade on record.

Thanks for analysis as always. You mention February will be a more traditional Nina look with a 1-2 week window of cold as it transitions. Are you implying a mild rest of February? Or a gradient one? February in Nina's used to be mild, however more recently that has not been the case. In fact the last 2 have been rocking with plenty of snow.

For Detroit Avg 50F+ per DJF ...........D....J....F....DJF 1880s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9 1890s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6 1900s - 2 - 2 - 1 - 4 1910s - 3 - 1 - 1 - 5 1920s - 2 - 1 - 1 - 4 1930s - 3 - 2 - 3 - 8 1940s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 6 1950s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 7 1960s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6 1970s - 2 - 1 - 2 - 5 1980s - 3 - 1 - 2 - 6 1990s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9 2000s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 8 2010s - 4 - 3 - 2 - 10 Avg 40F+ per DJF ...........D....J....F....DJF 1880s - 12 - 07 - 10 - 29 1890s - 11 - 06 - 07 - 24 1900s - 07 - 05 - 05 - 17 1910s - 08 - 07 - 06 - 21 1920s - 10 - 06 - 06 - 21 1930s - 09 - 09 - 08 - 25 1940s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 21 1950s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25 1960s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 23 1970s - 07 - 05 - 07 - 18 1980s - 10 - 05 - 08 - 24 1990s - 12 - 07 - 11 - 30 2000s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25 2010s - 13 - 07 - 09 - 25

Thaws have always been a part of Winter. I mean you cannot like them, what winter lover does, but to act like Winter used to be some nonstop land of cold snow and ice and it's now only a brief spit of snow here and there it's completely untrue. Not saying anyone literally says that here but sometimes you get that vibe from certain people and it's laughable because it's so untrue.

That's a very valid point about snow. But also, if you're cold and not getting a lot of snow, people often still refer to it is mild. The last 2 years were not mild winters in the Midwest. Regarding warming over the last 100 years, it depends on location but clearly the East Coast is warming more than the lower Midwest. In fact, the lower Great Lakes show minimal warming although I suspect Chicago's cooling trend is due to location change. Detroit warmed 0.9° Cleveland warmed 0.6° Toledo stayed exactly the same Columbus warmed 0.1° Indianapolis cooled 0.1° Chicago cooled 1.3° Milwaukee warmed 2.0° Minneapolis warmed 2.6° New york city warmed 3.2° Boston warmed 2.6° Buffalo warmed 1.5° Wash DC warmed 2.8° Burlington VT warmed 4.4°

Oh OK. Pretty much Was going by ORD numbers. Which is obviously North of the city I believe. Here, the last 5 snow seasons: 2021-22: slightly above avg 2020-21: slightly above avg 2019-20: avg 2018-19: below avg 2017-18: well above avg. The last 3 winters as a whole ended up right around climo snowwise in Southeast Michigan. The caveat for the previous 2 winters especially was a lot of snow from late January through February, which can be looked at 2 different ways. On the one hand, since such a high percentage of the snow fell during a 5 week period or so, that means there were several periods of suck throughout the season. On the other hand, had everything been climo appropriately dispersed from November through April, there would not have been a period of such fun.

Thanks again. It did sound like a good centralized location.

Thanks! In the vrbo description there was a comment about it being "on the edge of the Huron mountains"

Aren't you near Chicago? Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019. It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol.

Im staying in Bear Paw (near L'anse) Feb 16-20. How close is that to you or any of those locations?

The only thing I can think of is Marquettes official data is kept in the neighboring city of Negaunee, and Negaunee has less than 10,000 people

Last January was not bad here. Snowfall ended up slightly below avg but it was also much colder than avg. It was absolutely a winter month, unlike this year. And then yes Feb did her usual thing.

It only uses cities with 10,000+ people. But I can't figure out where Marquette is. Sault Ste. Marie has been the snowiest city in the U.S. over the last 30 years, according to the data compiled by the 230-year-old publication. “One of the oldest French settlements in North America, Sault Ste. Marie is located near the bank of a river which connects Lake Huron and Lake Superior,” the publication reads. “With lake-effect snow, it’s no surprise that it’s one of the snowiest places in the United States". Muskegon, a popular summer tourism destination, checked in at No. 7 on the list. “A winter wonderland, Muskegon is situated between Lake Michigan to the west and Muskegon Lake to the north, receiving heavy lake-effect snow from Lake Michigan during winter time, totaling 79.3 inches annually,” the publication reads.”Midwesterners flock to Muskegon in the winter for luging, ice skating, and wintry fun.” The Almanac also notes that Michigan has many snowy cities, including Grand Rapids (74.6 inches), Flint (49.9) and Detroit (43).

December. Will return by February.

Actually, 1991 to 2020 normals are I believe the highest 30 year normal snowfall for both Detroit (45.0") and Flint (52.1").

We pretty much know a milder than average pattern is locked in til the 20-25th or so, but if it remains active there should still be some snow threats. All the longrange guidance that goes past 16 days (euro weeklies, cfs, gfs extended) have a much colder look in late Jan into February.

Summer to winter is comparing apples to oranges. Temp departures in summer are not as extreme. In winter you often need temp departures of 25-30° to have a record high or low. In summer you often need 15° or even less.

Agree. The dead of Winter is late January to early February, but really anytime from early January to late February you don't need blues on the temp map to support snows.

Today is one month since the last Sunny day here

It used to be DTW. Funny. I remember all these winters when all it did was snow snow snow, but some found any problem with things "gfs had more" or "it's not a big dog" etc. What I wouldn't give to go back to that.

He said he was thinking Winter would be over after the December cold but now is changing his mind with the MJO. Also says the NPAC is as close to 2013-14 as you can get lol.

There's been many examples. I just pulled the most recent one. There's also examples of cold patterns that produce below average snow. There no set rhyme or reason, its just obvious that when you get closer to the dead of Winter, milder than average weather is much more workable to still yield snow. Will there be more Winter weather this year? Absolutely. How much? No idea. I hate bringing this up but it's the truth. I'll continue to look the other way until it is March or April and it has happened, but Detroit is definitely due for some trash snow seasons. The 2010s were the snowiest decade on record and the 2000s were also snowier than average. And by trash Winter, I don't mean periods of suck but then we still get a snow blitz that brings us to average snowfall. I mean a true well below average snow season once its done in April, something which we have had very very few of recently. Average isn't average if it's never below.

From Larry Cosgrove: Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month. I realize with the rather boring temperature display in the USA and Canada, that any talk of an Arctic intrusion may be (mildly putting it....) triggering smirks from people enjoying the (predicted) January Thaw. But for about a week now, all four of the numerical model forecasts for the 10MB level have consistently shown a warming in the stratosphere over Russia that culminates in a (relatively) warm bubble aloft over Alaska, British Columbia and the Yukon Territory after January 15. When you see an SSW episode, look at the general flow, the position of the circumpolar vortex, and the extent of snow and ice cover. Upon doing this, you realize that a "Siberian Express" with cross-polar flow option could occur between January 15 and February 1. This configuration looks much stronger and longer-lived than the December cold surge and Great Lakes storm. Of course things could change. But when I look at the rather inert Madden-Julian Oscillation, and see the various guidance pulsing the core to southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and a linkage to the now disconnected polar westerlies, you can put together a "trouble brewing" scenario. I have seen similar cases of upper atmospheric disturbances and interplay, and will be looking for one of the northern stream impulses to dig through the southern tier of the U.S., then deepen as it heads up along and/off of the Eastern Seaboard. If the intensification occurs with great surface divergence and upper air convergence, the "Thaw" will leave town in a hurry.