michsnowfreak

Most of the old snow, save for patches and piles melted last night ahead of this but with the frozen ground it pooled as standing water on top of the ground. Snowing nicely but low ratio is so far..need the temp to drop.

I'm pretty sure that's courtesy of no dtx radar

Dtx radar is down for maintenance so that's playing a part in why there's the gap in radar at times

Just see my previous post.. I was thinking the same thing. It's funny how frozen the ground remains despite the warm day.

It felt so warm it was crazy. Funny how your body does that. Now tonight with the moisture increasing it feels damp. Just a funny feel after it's been so dry cold for so long. Snow cover now ranges from grass to 2" and where there are grass patches the ground remains rock hard. Guess it's all part of the ingredients that make this storm come together.

We probably won't have much left ahead of the storm if it stays mild like this all night, but it really is a moot point.

Lol I never want it gone haha. Helps down the road for glacier. We have about 2" in shade and 1" in sun. Some bare and some 3" spots.

Surprised we kept as much snow as we did after hitting 46 with some sun.

I mean it's going to be a good storm regardless. Do the extra few inches really make or break lol?

Detroit finished Jan with a mean temp of 20.3, which is -5.5, good for 27th coldest on record. Precip totaled just 0.52" which is 5th driest Jan on record. Snowfall totaled 8.8", below avg but nothing noteworthy.

Everyone talks about 78...I'd love to see what model qpf output would be in a 1974 storm scenario. Far more compact but a death band from TOL into SE MI. Probably kuchera totals near 48-50"

Hoosier did bring up a good point though. It's not so much that the unanimous drying of the models was to be expected. I mean yes 30+ totals were unrealistic. But the fact that each wave is going to primarily hit different areas with just a little bit of overlap is why this is turning into more of a widespread big snowstorm instead of a more narrow corridor of historic snowstorm.

You can still easily get 11-15 on 1" qpf. It's basically now cast time. I had 1.08" on 16.5" Feb 1/2, 2015

It's been below freezing for so long that today feels gross out. I hate seeing snow melt even tho a storm is coming.

Thanks. I will say this about DTX warning, they still talk about Thursday. Which is really looking more like a graze job of light snow. This is all gonna be about tomorrow and it's gonna come down to the ratios. Pretty solid model agreement, give or take some noise, on about 1.20" qpf with about an inch falling as snow. Temperatures will be steadily dropping as the storm progresses.

DTX upgraded to warning for 11-15".

I've been so busy focusing on my backyard but I just compared the GFS and GEM and those are absolutely incredible differences for snow amounts in Southern Ohio, Indiana and eastward for only being a few days out

Those are terrible maps tho. They were drawn up by interns at DTX who used Coop data which involves a lot of missing data so certain stations will show way lower snow than actually fell

I don't have time to look up every storm to see what howell got, but I can tell you mine since I started measuring in 1995. And I remember howell got slammed in some of them, others were southern county storms (but on the flip side howell had some I didn't get double digits, like nov 2015 or Jan 2008) Feb 15/16, 2021: 11.0 Dec 11, 2016: 10.9" Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5" Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3" Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.1" Feb 20 2011: 10.2" Feb 1/2, 2011: 10.1" Mar 4/5, 2008: 10.3" Jan 22, 2005: 11.0" Feb 21/22, 2003: 11.5" Jan 2/3, 1999: 12.0"

I've cracked double digits 5 times since Jan 1 2014. Cracking a foot is the hard part. Huge difference between 10" and 12" for some reason. That said tmrw should still be a nice storm.

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

If it is snowing continuously, how can it not count as one event? Some of the East Coast snowstorms of the past they have counted as 1 event ocer 3 days when there has been like a 24 hour lull in between.

That's only thru 72. Thru 84 looks even better.

18z rgem looking great for southern MI. And of course IN/OH

The Southern row of counties in Michigan is golden right now.