michsnowfreak

What's your season to date?

I've got my eye on this one. Still so early though.

Did you mean .6" of freezing rain?

Des Moines officially recorded tornado in their climate summary so it's cool to see the ever elusive X (for tornado) show up in the F6.

Not sure about backing off. I hadnt looked closely at the exact numbers in recent days but centered around Sat-Sun Mar 12-13 are very impressive cold anomalies on all the ensemble means. Thereafter intensity certainly wears off but generally colder than average looks to continue through the end of the ensemble runs.

The cold snap coming next weekend looks legit. Will be interesting to see if any good snow can precede it

Yes but it's been a while.

Looking at the last 100 years for each of the 3 Winter months at Detroit, I ran a regression line which showed Dec warmed 2.2° Jan COOLED 0.5° Feb warmed 0.5°. But all of that aside, this subforum is a lot different than the mid Atlantic or even northeast. Most of us are snow weenies and when it gets down to it, the temperatures aren't quite as important. To me it just makes no sense why we have had no shortage of snowier than average November's, an unusual number of late October and late April measurable snowfalls in this sub almost yearly and yet Decembers are on a shit run. Locally at least, ma nature has been edging in December then blowing a big load in Feb. Sorry to go OT lol. Bring on the March snows.

I hate the term stat padding. Every March and April snowfall is referred to as stat patting yet what do you think previous year's March and April snow was? Lol it's not like it stayed on the ground forever. Plus, if we call snow that does not last long stat padding, does that mean when you get a midwinter snowfall that stays on the ground for a long time with or without additional snow, you should call it stat understating?

I don't think agw has anything to do with our December luck lately but it has been a weird quirk. You can't go by the mantra that everything is getting later because we have had no shortage of snowier and colder than normal Novembers as well as some unusual October snowfalls lately. I attribute it to a weird trend of luck where the other shoe will eventually drop. We had similar runs of shit Decembers in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s. Fun fact. At Detroit... 9 of the last 17 Christmases have had snow on the ground. 16 of the last 17 Valentines Days have had snow on the ground.

Jokes aside they definitely measure every tenth of an inch, but that lake effect up there is so fluffy you can honestly get a half an inch of snow with a trace water content. Our last day up there there was a fresh inch of fluff on the car when I did not even think it was supposed to snow that night. it was pretty isolated to the area I was staying in, but still. unless there's a abnormal torch or rainstorm you pretty much have to forecast at least a chance of snow almost every day in the superior snowbelt during the Winter.

I edited the title a little bit, just to avoid confusion as I was referring to locally in Southern MI, and it's not been the case everywhere. The frequency of not just snowy February's but top tier snowiest Februarys has been unlike anything I've seen in the climate record for snow, temp, or precip. Although I do remember one of our few more average February's (2019) ironically did have a lot of snow in those areas who missed out this year.

It is very strange indeed. To be consistently doubling average snowfall during the already 2nd snowiest month of the year is impressive. Of course I'm speaking with a backyard bias, but in addition to the crap December's and excellent February's, we are seeing lots of snowy November's and zzzz Marches. 5 of the past 8 years saw more snow in November than December. Recent years have also seen a succession of late Oct and late Apr snows as well as may flakes in parts of the southern and Central subforum. It's a very strange mixture.

I thought about going up to the huron mountains but I didn't know how the roads would be lol. You are in another micro climate in addition to MQT so your winters are exponentially more severe than Marquette city! Your pics are always awesome. I'm sure measuring is a pain when there's a lot of old snow on the ground and also a lot of plowed, shoveled, or blown slow. I did tons of depth measurements in Au Train & Munising and came up with a much lower depth then they reported. But when you go to the residential areas there's 5 to 6' snow mounds everywhere. Storm measurement from Munising (9.3") was dead on with what I was estimating.

Certainly not perfect but a good idea. Here is season to date snowfall through the end of February

Can you post for just Jan-Feb?

Your depth never exceeded 3"? Did you miss out on the heavier snows at ORD? I think many of your expectations are unrealistic however that is definitely a kick in the pants to not exceed 3" depth.

I was able to witness it with my own 2 eyes and it was like nothing I'd ever seen. I'm talking about the difference between snowfall in Negaunee/MQT versus Marquette city itself. I think downtown Marquette is only 8 miles east of of MQT. Drove through that area the day after that storm. I'm still a bit surprised at how high of a total MQT reported because of snowdepth apparently settling 15" from beginning to end of the storm. But having 40" on the ground was legit. 8 miles away in Marquette? Maybe 18" if I'm being generous.. A little bit West of MQT? Back to around 2 feet. It's very interesting how they place the official weather site in the micro climate of heaviest snow.

The 20.4" of snow that fell in February in placed Detroit at 14th snowiest February on record, adding to the traffic jam of 21st century dates in the snowiest Februarys list. Only 2 days this February had a snowdepth of 0, after no such days last February. Detroit finished met Winter with an average temperature of 28.0ﾟ. After a very mild December quite a come back to finish -0.4ﾟ. Dec +5.9° Jan -5.5° Feb -1.6°. The 32.5" of snow of snow that fell during met Winter, 20.4" of it coming in February, was just slightly below average, however due to a snowy November, season to date snowfall began March slightly above average.

To be fair, I made this thread a year ago. I bumped it just now due to another snowy February. As funny as it sounds, I'm going to see how December 2022 goes. If it's a mild December with not a lot of snow, I will count on another 20+ inch February. If it's a very wintry December, February will take a break. Mother nature's trends lately.

I'm a big Laura ingalls Wilder fan. Both of books and even the TV show is a guilty pleasure that I watch sometimes. "The Long Winter" is my favorite book. It's so crazy to read those stories although some of it obviously is embellished. Remember she wrote it as an adult. Storms don't last for in 6 days lol. All that said I would have loved to see how the models wouldve handled that Winter. The 93.6" of snow that fell at Detroit in 1880-81 stood as the snowiest Winter on record until 2013-14 when 94.9" fell. In those early days of weather records, snow depth records were not kept however from what I gather locally the snow was very deep in early February but then several rainstorms caused a mess before more heavy snows came. The very following Winter, 1881-82 was incredibly warm and snowless. To this day, it stands as Detroit's 2nd least snowy Winter at 13.2", although I can deduce that there were even less days with snow on the ground then Detroit's all time number one low of 12.9" in 1936-37. More impressive than the lack of snow however was the warmth. The Winter of 1881-82 is by far the warmest Winter on record for Detroit, a full 1.2 degree warmer than number #2. It's a record I doubt will ever be broken. If you read the following book in the Laura Ingalls Wilder series you will see that preparations for another hard Winter were taken very seriously in autumn 1881 with the previous Winter still in their minds and then she makes comments how there ended up being no Winter (the weather/Winter was not the subject of that book so it's just made in passing commentary).

The 20.4" of snow that fell at DTW this February makes it the 14th snowiest February on record. It has actually gotten comical how february's recently have just cleaned up. Since 1881, 10 of the 20 snowiest Februaries have been in the past 20 years. Going further than that, 7 of the top 16 occurred from from 2010 to 2022.

We haven't been able to lock the 24 hour gfs in this winter.

It is. Also, it's crazy to see the difference between the beginning of February and the end of February when it comes to that. I roll my eyes when it's early February and someone comments how their air fluff snow melted in the sun (undoubtedly with plenty of salt nearby) but it's legit at the end of February. That's why unless you have a deep glacier in place ala 2014 or 2015, snow cover season longevity has come to a close and now it's all about getting the storms. A storm with good rates always can overcome the sun angle in March and April.

Regardless whether we're coming out of the most severe winter on record or the mildest, or anything in between, I always want additional Winter in March. Sitting at 39.5" of snow imby on the season. DTW 39.6" which is 3" above avg to date but March has been crappy in recent years. April has been better for snows lol. It ended up being a good Winter for frequent snowfalls, including two 6"+ storms, but no big dog. It's high time March gets her act together and produces a blockbuster snowstorm. Looking at historical data, it's crazy how many horrendous mild/snowless winters in the 1930s and 1950s saw a big March snowstorm. It was as if you expected it. Makes me think somewhere in cyclone area, or perhaps Wisconsin, or Northwest Iowa gets a big march storm. Though hopefully we do too lol.