michsnowfreak

With todays record high being so low, id rather beat it handily than have it tie at 58 or so.

Exactly. In the 1990s February was a snowless torch. Now we get buried most years.

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters). The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol. Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022) – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover 1870s- 31.1F - 32.9” 1880s- 30.6F - 32.4” 1890s- 33.4F - 35.7” 1900s- 32.4F - 29.0” 1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days 1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days 1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days 1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days 1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days 1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days 1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days 1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days 1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days 2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

I don't feel we are chasing anything wrt a pattern change as we end Dec and start Jan. A mild Dec was well forecast and is a given in a strong Nino. Seems like everything remains on track for a flushing of the pattern (which usually causes a lag in sensible weather/cold). Next week looks cooler and Christmas week milder than they did, say, a week ago...but everything seems on track for a notable change for the eastern half of the country as we start January. Now what that means for us....stay tuned. As we head deeper into winter, a map full of blue temps is far less important than systems and storm tracks themselves.

Indeed we should. The low record high for Dec 9 (58, 1946) sticks out like a sore thumb when looking at the records list for the first half of December. Record Dec 8 is 66 (1966) and Dec 10 is 64 (1971).

As big a snowlover & Christmas lover as I am, if I HAD to pick which DJF month to suck, I would actually pick December. I mean it's like choosing which bone to break. It's NOT a preference, just if I HAD to pick one. Always so busy with so many Christmas activities in Dec, whereas January & February are the boring quiet months, outside of weather.

The repetitious posts of warm December maps imply like it's some shock, as if it was unexpected, strong nino and all. Nothing you can really do but just let the warm crowd enjoy and soak it all until the expected change in January.

Eps brutal for December. Which has been unfortunately expected, esp with strong nino. Eps weeklies & monthlies much, much better in January. Only 4-5 months til the last snowflakes of the season

What's interesting is that locally, Decembers were great in the 2000s and pissy the last decade, yet despite the contrast, White Christmases have remained steady around 50%. Definitely not a fan of mild Decembers, but with lots of Christmas activities it's a lot busier than January/February so easier to forget about the crappy weather. Time will tell if February is once again the star month of winter.

White Christmases have never been common on the east coast. The rate of white Christmases here in Detroit has remained steady (around 50%).

Lol I forgot. That was a wild one with the temp contrasts. I always hear you guys joking about grinch storms. But I wonder if there is actually any mathematical support to having a little more bad luck on the east coast on Dec 24-25 than surrounding dates. What's interesting is that locally in SE MI we have stayed remarkably consistent with our 50/50 white Christmas climo despite awesome decembers in the 2000s and less desirable ones the last decade.

I remember that because it started here with 7" of unexpected snow Dec 24/25. The forecast the morning of Dec 24 was flurries only. But a huge nw shift gave us a storm. 3 of the past 6 Christmases have had perfectly timed snows here. 4.5" synoptic on Dec 24, 2017, falling late afternoon through evening. Then another inch in LES christmas day. 3.6" on Dec 24/25, 2020, from 11pm christmas eve thru mid afternoon christmas day 2.4" last christmas eve and day atop a few inches of snow from the 23rd.

Nothing wrong with that! We all have our preferences. You absolutely are not a troll.

Nah he is far beyond trolling. And actually I wouldn't say its sacrilege. Board is still full of cold lovers, but there's a little group of warm trolls. I think they all live in a commune somewhere together with palm trees and they hold fire next to thermometers to see how warm it'll go.

That's what I did. Just sucks when his posts are quoted by others and still show lol.

After morning flurries, the sun peeked out a few times in the afternoon for the first time in December.

It will be a mix of disappearing storms and sneaky surprises.

Same! I went from WWBB to eastern to here.

It was a nuisance mist with some wet snowflakes. A misty drizzly 37° day in early Dec has no more bearing on this winter than the 25° and fluffy snow did a week ago.

It was arguably worse during the amazing stretch from 2007-15. The board was full of members, and some of them had IMPOSSIBLE expectations. Plenty of complaints in winters that featured 150+% of normal snowfall.

It's crazy how far removed we are from the "hey day" of weather boards. I think the declining popularity of internet forums in general plays a big role (many seem to gravitate to personal chats on messenger or other platforms), as does the increasing amount of trolls and/or people who arent even on a weather board to discuss weather.

It's really a subjective conversation. Rogue mentioned that the first real snow threat last winter wasn't til Dec 23rd. And I brought up the Arctic front snow band from Nov 19. The word "heavy" was I guess the key word for everyone. I meant heavy in terms of visib at DTW going below a quarter mile, not that 1.7" is a ton of snow lol. But my point was that the lakes often "help us" in MI when synoptic is zzzz.

I like all snow. Nickel and dime or big storms. But you read too much into that post. All I said to Rogue was "We had that heavy frontal snow thanks to the lake Nov 19th, kinda similar to Nov 27th this year. The lakes definitely help out when synoptic doesn't".

I'd love to see what actual goes into compiling a map like this. Because raw data here would show there has been very minimal change here. In fact, from 1973-74 to 2022-23, Nov-Mar precip increased 0.06" and snowfall increases 1.1".

Obviously the latter.