michsnowfreak

Nice. How close are you to Lincoln Park?

I can't recall when I've seen this high of totals on an ensemble mean this far out, definitely a great sign that a good storm will be affecting a large area. Now its the waiting game.

Both Detroit and Chicago sit in as good a position as you can ask for with this storm this far out. 5 says out is an eternity in model-land. It would take a miracle for Chicago to be 10" ahead of Detroit after this storm. But of course the season is not anywhere near all said and done at that point.

What did you get? Wondering what my brother got in Lincoln Park and how much he has on the ground. He said he thinks he got about 3 or 4" of lake effect.

After morning gray and light snow...the SUN is out powerball. You are missing sun in Detroit. A sparkly winter day.

Wow very nice. I asked because i saw CLE depth was decent but nothing crazy. We were last that deep in 2015, though did get to 15" in 2018 and last winter.

I went to the store last night And it was the warmest it had been in days. Temperatures spiked to 28 ahead of the Arctic front. When I got back home to unload my groceries I took my coat off just running in-and-out of the house in my sweater lol. Definitely get used to it. But the cold has already returned. January snowfall is 9.2" in my backyard with 19.1" on the season. DTW is at 8.5" in January and 18.9" season. January is finishing with snowfall just slightly below average but temperatures in precipitation well below average. It will be a top 10 dry January as we have had nothing but dry snow. And though it will likely miss the top 20 cold list, it will be close.

Chicago crowd, is this typical lake effect fluff? We had an airy dusting here and it was likr the fluff they get in Buffalo or marquette when 18" falls and the depth is 8" the next day lol.

Definitely an intriguing system just can't get too excited far out with the models. The support is nice though.

Just curious...how deep?

The key phrase all must remember in the coming days lol.

There is consensus of a storm. That's about the only consensus you will have for at least 5 days.

To each their own. For me, It's not about remembering as much as it is enjoying Winter. It's the beavis in me. Were the clippers memorable? Of course not. But it's a Winter wonderland outside. Just like when they have shit Winters on the East Coast with nothing but bare ground, if I lived there, I don't think it would be any consolation to just remember past storms. In terms of remembering, nothing like the winter of 13-14. I can't imagine any single storm could surpass that. I remember the blizzard of 99 well and of course ghdII is my favorite, but immediate thoughts always go to 13-14. Every year this time when they bring up the blizzard of 78, I always have to really wonder. It's become such lore and there's always pomp and circumstances surrounding it, that I wonder what it would have ACTUALLY been like to experience it in Detroit. It's well documented that snowfall totals were far less on the East Side of the state. I'm sure it was a good storm with winds, blowing snow, falling temperatures, etc, but widespread reports of only 8 to 10" in this area certainly lump it in with many other storms. And had that same thing happened today, I have a feeling the storm would be remembered for being a massive close miss. I cannot fathom a weenie Fondly recalling a storm that dumped 9" of snow here and 3' a few counties West.

Oh ok that makes sense. Snow depths right now around 30" in Munising, we will both be in that area later in the Winter. Outside of the lake superior shore, snow depths in the UP seem a bit underwhelming compared to what they should be.

Nantucket seems a better bet.

I talk to Andrew from Long Island all the time and he would rather have our climate with frequent snows and flakes...they just don't get that. He has seen some incredible storms but they are in and out in a flash. Obviously it's a little different in NE, but still. An east coast climate is big risk, big reward, big disappointment. These models tho. Yikes.

Should be quite the comedy show watching the struggling models figure this one out over the coming week.

Woke up a little earlier than normal and couldn't fall back asleep so bundled up and went down to the Detroit river to watch the sunrise. It was absolutely gorgeous, the air temp was about 4ﾟ so there was steam coming over the open water (no matter how cold it is the river won't freeze solid due to ice cutters and current). As the sun rose the snow sparkled and took on different hues of orange. I really do take for granted that this scene is literally a few blocks from my house every clear morning.

9"+ snowstorms are not as common as you would think, I think the midwest is a 1 to 6" climate in general with the occasional bigger storm. Contrary to that 1 poster's incorrect assumption, Detroit having 4 snowstorms of 9" and the last 5 years is actually very good and more than most cities in the region. It would take a bit of research but I wouldn't imagine only a handful of 9"+ storms are seen per decade at any one local. Detroit has had 11 in the past 15 years but that includes some stellar Winters. If you lower the bar to 8"+ you're adding quite a few more to the pile.

While it's always common for the op guidance to shift wildly from run to run, I have noticed lately how how ridiculously different the ensemble means are from run to run in the extended.

Thanks for those charts. The mid 20th century was terrible for snowfall in this area. If 1930s through 1950s Winter's happened today, I shudder at the thought of every single event being attributed to global warming. There were a few good ice storms and of course the occasional good bout of snow, but as a whole that was one depressing 30 years stretch for snow lovers.

Actually you're obsessed with saying I polish turds even if I don't say a word. You just seem to not believe the fact that some people can like winter the season without obsessing over rates or a storm total amount. And actually, dtw had a bigger storm last winter than ord. It's amazing that people that simply discuss the weather or post stats are turd polishing or bullying, but you just spout off baseless junk with nothing to back it up, apparently no knowledge of how weather/climate works.

Glistening winter morning. Deep cold and fresh powder....perfect for the dead of winter.

17 storms the last 5 years have dropped 4+ at DTW, including 4 over 9". Yup. No organized systems in 5 years. Also, snow depths last Feb reached 21" in Chicago, 18" in Toledo, and 14" in Detroit. Impressive with no organized systems. Nov. 27/28, 2021: 4.3" Feb 15/16, 2021: 10.4" Feb 4, 2021: 4.1" Jan 18, 2020: 6.8" Feb 25/26, 2020: 5.5" Nov 11/12, 2019: 9.2" Jan 19, 2019: 5.8" Mar 1, 2018: 5.0" Feb 9, 2018: 9.2" Feb 6/7, 2018: 4.2" Feb 4/5, 2018: 5.3" Dec 24/25, 2017: 5.4" Dec 13/14, 2017: 6.5" Dec 11/12, 2017: 4.0" Mar 13, 2017: 5.3" Jan 30/31, 2017: 4.6" Dec 11/12, 2017: 10.7"

Clipper #3 dropped 2.6" powder here. I was hoping for more, but clipper #2s 3.1" was more than double what was expected, so it's all good. Love seeing the mounds of powder everywhere. And definitely have fallen in love with my snowblower, piles be damned.