mahk_webstah

a 2ft blizzard for Jeff

these have been gut punches here usually, lately. for you, some deformation band or upslope will suddenly appear and you'll have a foot.

When there is this much uncertainty in models I just assume it won’t work out well. But the Euro-nam thing does have a history so I guess this could be a big interior cne nne storm.

I think that is better for more of us, as opposed to those overwhelming Greenland blocks that shove out everything too far south for us up here.

Psychologically, I believe his melt may have served to clear the Freudian deck, so I think we’re good for snow now.

I thought the WPC map looked very close and they had a high in a very good position. We hope.

This sounds like a good stretch coming. We are perhaps gunshy given the last couple of winter forecasting challenges, and the frequently bad outcomes for us. But this kind of pattern seems like one that has enough cold air, a decent amount of activity, so likely things will show up, then back off and then come back strong. Also maybe we get one of those little surprises from a wave the slides quicly across underneath us and gives us 2-4 instead of some flurries. Or maybe we start to see models trend a bit colder, snowier as we get closer in this sort of set up.

07-08 gradient up here

The last few years I really ruined us for NAO believability. The only thing I believe now is fast flow and negative EPO

A d that is where the Atlantic side could help yes?

I like the sound of this in our not too distant future. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

To you too Brian, and everyone. Not a normal thanksgiving but much to be thankful for.

Wouldn’t be a bad thing to get a nice dump rain in the ground before everything freezes up. Looks like we have a shot to have a snow pack building by the end of the second week of December. That feels normal to meWouldn’t be a bad thing to get a nice dump rain in the ground before everything freezes up. Looks like we have a shot to have a snow pack building by the end of the second week of December. That feels normal to me

after the last couple of years, I'd rather it look bad and then let it get better...psychologically at least.

you and Kevin have a lot in common... you have been occassionally honking about parts of November and I refuse to give up.

I'm just standing in for Zeus. I figure it is gonna be a great winter. front loaded with warmth to keep us outside and not going crazy, and backloaded with heavy snow as we follow the plows to the CVS to get our vaccines and emerge into the world again.

i trust you to make it all work out for me...

looks a little dicey but she is moving faster so if she comes ashore north of Tampa and heads south of Gainesville then Orlando is the right front quad so there will be squalls. But my flight lands early evening so I hope it'll have passed. Thats why I booked later in the day.

safe outdoor gatherings really help the mental state right now. I might be flying to Orlando tomorrow if Eta lets me.

but then there is that other part of you.... which lives in all of us. seems like 3" would be a win here.

you moved up north?

I dunno...this pullback is pretty common at this timeframe isn't it? Could come back at 12Z or 0Z. If not, no biggie! Snow is always fun but no snowpack to build now and it'd be gone soon anyhow.

Jeebus that is you and me. kinda early to be in the jackpot at 84+

I know for many of you men, that's what she said.

As always, a very high quality discussion when a certain Met does the long range.