mahk_webstah

I think the 7th is borderline even for here. If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air?

I noticed that the overnight WPC position was inland over SE NE, and this afternoon's update has it at the elbow. But the snow probs are more interior NE

Sort of like my 40s the other day?

Thanks for a really well thought out post. Appreciate the effort and the information!

doesn't early nao blocking tend to repeat later in the season? Don S would know. I don't think he was ever excited about this current pattern.

My hope is that as the pattern shifts into something new we get a good pattern that persists like this one has. I think that is a possibility. There should be homegrown cold in eastern Canada, and there is still room for high pressure in Ontario/Quebec at times even with a low over Greenland. We just need some change in the west, and all the ensemble suites are doing that, though to varying degrees of amplitude. But I think that is a good sign, and I think that as the shift takes hold there will be a storm in the NE, probably between the 8-10th. It could be one of those patterns where just us in New England get good bouts of snow and cold.

Yeah but there’s still a little bit of amplitude particularly in the flow as you get near New England so it looks like we could tap a little bit of that cold air. I like that the two other models are more amplified with WR.

As a long time weenie, I would just say don’t get sucked into the analfrontal deals

Delwer's weather was not boring. Growing up had many big snowstorms, some brushes with hurricanes, a few tornadoes. A great place to grow up, although I was happy to leave.

qqanon? WWGRNAWGNAO?

Why do we always have to suffer first??? Whhhhhyyyyyyyy

it hasn't been so bad up here....decently cold and some snow. But 50 miles to my south it is another story.

Well no Scott and no Will and no post for 2 hours. That says it all. I will say though that WPC does have all of NE down to Philly in the low end risk for frozen precip over .25 on Sunday but I think that is ana frontal and will go away on the next update.

Now we're talking! thats the torch you referred to earlier. If that ends up as the mean for that period, every single met I've read is wrong about the pattern over the last month, and where it was headed. And those are the educated ones! The weenies, well.... But I should add that how could anyone have foreseen this progression given what the analogs and models of all kinds have been putting out?

It is good to know if you are positive. It could affect when you decide to get a booster.

Congrats Quebec City! For those of you who haven't been there, it is the best place for a winter vacation on this continent. Lots of snow, very old city with all sorts of monumnents to wars on this contintent over the last 400 years. Feels like Europe, with French spoken, but very friendly with English speakers. Amazing food and great charm and walking. Winter carnival at start of February last for 2 weeks and is well worth it. I think the USD is still strong against the CD. Go and your weenie needs will be met. Romantic as hell so bring the significant other and that last sentece will have multiple meanings.

so we just need to get the airmass refreshed behind the first wave? What is the timing on these if you don't mind?

would the first or 2nd wave help with the antecendent airmass? I was reading that that was the main problem for the weekend and early next week.

It usually doesn't happen, but stuff has been changing around alot these days even insider of 4-5 days. Maybe something will shift for the weekend/early next week.

it is the 6.5" of really thick meaty snowpack up here that makes this tolerable. But if we don't get at least 6" of powder on top of this in the next week or 10 days, it will become a PITA. Up here we are on the edge but still optimistic. Deep winter look outside this morning on the walk.

I was ready to cancel on Xmas last year when my 28.5 inches melted off in 7 days.

3 or 4 degrees above normal is a torch in the 50s? I'm probably misinterpreting the map.

Winnuh winnuh chicken dinnuh

We like the cold air source nearby especially when there is a SE ridge that pushes he storm track up our way. You don’t like where you sit in that gradient? It’s not a Miller A party but that is swfe and Miller b city

To me that looks good and would that not produce regular snowfall events across New England so perhaps not large ones unless we get something to dig in phase Miller b