It’s generally good, although when we have a full PNA and a strong 50-50 we get screwed over. But you’re right in this situation we have a nice wintery landscape and maybe a great base if we don’t haw too much
And another 1-2 tonight? A bit more mixed Thursday? And then a question mark but probably at least somewhat frozen as the new year starts? That’s a solid pack that one 6-10 inch storm makes very nice
From WPC overnight:
A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a southern stream closed low near southern California Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East
Wow if that happens that would be great! I would really hate to come home to the condition of my driveway and walkway looks like right now. Do you really think we might get a few inches overnight? I haven’t seen any forecast of that but I would trust what you have to say more than most.Wow if that happens that would be great!
I think we can make a distinction between a Direct cause and a relevant factor. Certainly climate change by itself isn’t causing any particular winter weather event or not. But there are thousands and millions of factors and forces that create the weather and climate changes influencing those, so why there’s no direct causation there’s certainly an influence on our weather all the time when conditions are changing. It doesn’t need to be an either or a conversation I shouldn’t be in my opinion
In the end, a net addition, an awful driveway, and a stronger pack. And another day helping the pond ice thicken. We’ll see about Wednesday Thursday , maybe too warm, but after Jan 1 we get a good stretch to build on this bullet proof pack.
My home cam looks like maybe some flakes mixing in but I can hear the sounds of sleet. There’s a lot of precipitation still out to the west so if it flips to snow it could be much nicer to return home to everything covered up as opposed to just ice
Glad to see more folks have snow cover. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. I think we will fight for every inch the next week or so but then I think we get there and get a real stretch of winter at the coldest part of the year.
If you change your forecasting technique to simply predict whether or not there will be a severe blizzard on any given day, and say "there will not be a severe blizzard today," you will be right 99.9+ % of the time! Think of the possibilities...
19 here and the dewpoint only slightly below. It’s cold and we are going to glaze. Already a couple of degrees below the projected low and skies are still pretty clear so we will radiate some more I assume