mahk_webstah

There’s as much clustering on the bench mark as there are hairs on the top your head

Wow that has the coldest air in the hemisphere over the Carolinas.Wow that has the coldest air in the hemisphere over the Carolinas.

Without any blocking or something to shunt it out to see one would think so. But panics driven by shifts of models five days out are fairly common even with someone as old as me.

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

the isobars suggest that should come nne

probably more elbow or canal given the lack of blocking to the north

I'm happy to see the slight trend s and e because this may come west some as it gets closer, sort of like today

Looks like it gives multiple opportunities in multiple ways for us to get snow as the ridges and Troughs move around, but does not look suppressive at all thanks for the rigging in the Atlantic I think? Miller A and B and swfe clippers too

Severe blizzards

Dryslut downslopingdeforms dendrite? DDDD

I love how that has the look of one that comes fully up into and through the gulf of Maine

Hopefully that one prevents suppression depression. Seems like plenty of room for storms to come north. Would there be potential for phasers if pieces of that vortex break off?

I think the 7th is borderline even for here. If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air?

I noticed that the overnight WPC position was inland over SE NE, and this afternoon's update has it at the elbow. But the snow probs are more interior NE

Sort of like my 40s the other day?

Thanks for a really well thought out post. Appreciate the effort and the information!

doesn't early nao blocking tend to repeat later in the season? Don S would know. I don't think he was ever excited about this current pattern.

My hope is that as the pattern shifts into something new we get a good pattern that persists like this one has. I think that is a possibility. There should be homegrown cold in eastern Canada, and there is still room for high pressure in Ontario/Quebec at times even with a low over Greenland. We just need some change in the west, and all the ensemble suites are doing that, though to varying degrees of amplitude. But I think that is a good sign, and I think that as the shift takes hold there will be a storm in the NE, probably between the 8-10th. It could be one of those patterns where just us in New England get good bouts of snow and cold.

Yeah but there’s still a little bit of amplitude particularly in the flow as you get near New England so it looks like we could tap a little bit of that cold air. I like that the two other models are more amplified with WR.

As a long time weenie, I would just say don’t get sucked into the analfrontal deals

Delwer's weather was not boring. Growing up had many big snowstorms, some brushes with hurricanes, a few tornadoes. A great place to grow up, although I was happy to leave.

qqanon? WWGRNAWGNAO?

Why do we always have to suffer first??? Whhhhhyyyyyyyy

it hasn't been so bad up here....decently cold and some snow. But 50 miles to my south it is another story.

Well no Scott and no Will and no post for 2 hours. That says it all. I will say though that WPC does have all of NE down to Philly in the low end risk for frozen precip over .25 on Sunday but I think that is ana frontal and will go away on the next update.