mahk_webstah

why are we worried about the old GFS 6 days out?

Legro knows snows

Chris gave good guidance on Sunday. A minor event but he thinks it will snow. I'm bullish on the whole week next week. Could be epic. 6-10 in the fields here and 8-14 in the woods. Could have 2' solid snowpack by next weekend with no big melt in sight.

This is a great track for all of us, let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point

Good discussion by Chris at GYX. You can always tell when he or Ekster write it. Forecast Details: Ensemble guidance continues to show strong support for a high PoP/low QPF event Sun night. S/WV trof will traverse the Srn edge an anomalously deep upper low over Srn Canada. Confluent flow over the Northeast will tend to inhibit further strengthening of the wave...and as a result lighter QPF is anticipated. This is also leading to higher chances for snow in S and W zones before forcing tends to weaken. I feel like model PoP is too low however despite low QPF output. So I have increased PoP in the aforementioned zones to low likely. It is beyond Sun that things become more interesting. Flow starts becoming more amplified as a series of S/WV trofs carves out the longwave pattern deeper and deeper. As these eject out of the trof and head NEwe they will offer our chances for snow. 11.00z ensemble guidance is really beginning to consolidate around Tue night/Wed system. There is yet another robust but more variance for a system Fri or Sat. As for the midweek potential...strong high pressure anchored N of New England would favor colder temps and likely predominately snow scenario. 11.00z EPS has a large majority of moderate to heavy snow members...while the GEFS runs the gamut from null events to moderate to heavy. Regardless...NBM PoP was low chance to slight chance and I feel this is way too low given the ensemble support for the last couple of days. I have increased PoP closer to 50 percent for most of the forecast area. This is both higher than climatology but not so high that I am completely discounting the drier GEFS. The end of the week potential carries much more uncertainty given that it is 7 or 8 days away. In a reversal the GEFS is actually more robust with this event than the EPS...but the NBM PoP between 30 and 40 percent seemed reasonable given how far out this is.

Looks like that does get much of New England not just the southern part, yesLooks like that does get much of New England not just the southern part, yes

Or could they be separate events where a military comes up the coast and then it’s wake us swfe follows

Does this suggest the possibility of a sort of Miller a Miller b hybrid? The northern stream one coming along with like a swfe but then re-developing into something that comes up the coast?

A preview of what is to come (set to "Rudolph the Red-nosed Reindeer" February the climo snow month Had a lot of nickels and dimes Weenies accused the models Of a series of crimes Many of the skilled meteorologists laughed as the weenies called them names The knew the odds and models Had a way of playing games Then one crisp mid February night Ullr came to say Weenies get off the computer screens February snow climo has come to play Oh how the weenies loved it As they Jebwalked with glee February snow climo Is no longer just a theory!

Oh Mr. Man....

If the Euro is amped that is good for many as wouldn't it be likely to trend a bit colder given blocking, thick snow pack, natural baroclinic boundary, and all those other things that I don't really understand but am able to type them?

I'm not sure why we talk about Friday. Sunday, we should be talking about that. STill time for that to evolve more favorably, regardless of what an individual model run shows. Sunday has a persistent signal even in between model fluctuations, for light-mod snow across a good part of new england.

it was the isobarric map that Will posted that looked bent back west some.

Well the EPS shows a real bend back to the west in the isobars, and the position of the high should let that come further n and w don't you think? Or are you too scarred at this point to allow hope to penetrate?

my wunderground forecast just jumped to 6 inches for Sunday, and dropped to about 6 inches for 16-18th.

Was gone much of the day but at least 2” up here. Probably similar to whatever Brian measures

Your are getting into that nice (underforecasted?) band. I'm getting lighter snow just to your south, but a big whole opening up on the radar to our west. The stuff doesn't seem to be translating over the Green mountains yet.

I will say there is a nice band moving from NY and VT across CNH, just scraping me a bit. That looks substantial and I don't it was forecast. Am I wrong?

3/4" as of 9 with light snow wafting down. A lot on the radar in C&N NY but not sure if it translates over this way.

Snow increasing slowly to solidly moderate. At least 1/2" maybe more. Nice northern band extending g back into CNY. I hope it continues to build

I’ll add that intensity is increasing. Snow growth is great and there’s a coating. I thought steady wasn’t until later so somethyhas shifted. We’ll see if it lasts

Woke up to light snow and a developing band right in my area. Nice surprise

on the radar this looks like 2 distinct pieces. the northern one seems pointed at CNE and lower NNE. the southern one seems pointed at the northern midatlantic and SNE. How does this all come together?

I’ve decided I live in S NH

I apparently can only read the first 3/4 of a sentence. It helped me in monopoly though....do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.