mahk_webstah

fixed

Well I'm not sure what I've said that is arguable. Feel free to PM me, I'm a nice guy as you are too (except when DIT succeeds in trigerring you lol ). But, this is about weather. We are on a board talking about the weather pattern for the next month. Some are speculating that the warming climate, which ice samples tell us is unprecedented in the last 800,000 years, is making it harder to understand how to use weather model data...that the baseline isn't as applicable any more give the warming of oceans and over land masses. That is fair game in this thread. This chart is enough to make us have this conversation: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

We do know that climate is always changing, but a very varying rates. We do, through ice samples have good data about how the climate evolved over millenia. And we know quite conclusively, that man's activities are warming the planet rapidly due to the levels of carbon released in the atmosphere. There's no controversary in what I've just said, unless you believe the President or same fringe scientists. But we don't have data that we could use for weather forecasting/modelling for sure. What we don't know is exactly how that will affect real weather that you and I are interested in. We don't know how it is affecting modelling. In that way, Scott's point is a good one, and one that I hope scientist and mets start to look at closely... I wonder if there is enough data yet to say that the modeling is really being affected? It could be that the improvement in computing power is temporarily offsetting the loss of an ability for models to predict based on past behavior over the last 100 years. Who knows.

How dare you link climate change to the weather! Actually, this makes a lot of sense. I think things are changing fairly rapidly and the next few decades are going to be interesting as we watch all this unfold, perhaps in ways we don't quite understand. How soon will we have enough data to have new analogues? In other words if we start to look at conditions post-2000, would that be a better baseline, even though a very small data set?

I think we said three or four days ago that we wouldn’t know anything until the overnight Wednesday and 12 Z Thursday runs. Because of when things would be well sampled. That’s why we didn’t get invested right? I know I didn’t. By 130 this afternoon we’ll see what this looks like

exactly, and that has been obvious for days. these situations rarely turn out well despite some model porn. that being said there's probably a 10-20% chance for a lucky timing thing but I doubt it. Looking forward to it getting colder next week, getting some confluence and blocking above, even if not perfect, and it will snow. But this weekend is sht for most except the maritimes as the basic seasonal pattern continues and winter won't quite set in.

come on, this is going to be our usual fast flow shortwave abundant disaster. Congrats Nick. Nobody to the west of Eastport should be excited unless something shows up overnight Wednesday.

That’s why I am very skeptical...lots of shortwavesa, fast flow = low chances for many. I am optimistic though feb7-21

We have to get through today's trend and see if it stops and comes back a bit. tomorrow 12Z runs will give a good indication as we will then be at 72.

thanks Steve. that got ugly fast, but this season we wait and see if it will come back a bit. Only needs to shift a bit to give us a blue bomb. I feel bad for you guys in most of SNE - this is a winter of a lot of frustrations.

I don't know where to find EPS but does it offer any hope of an overcorrection as Steve posits?

I thought it was in NW Ohio - what happened?

Yeah I really do have nice legs...

Joining the party or kicking it east?

I’m from NH so I’ll be in my shorts by the pool after my work is done in the morning

I’m on a plane headed there now lol

The uncle is ridin Ray and headed for the Pope!

Maybe you can pull Jeff back in

I think we had 90% for 3 and similar for 6, but that was perhaps for a whole 10 or 15 day period. I feel optimistic about this storm, although that doesn't mean shite. Anything in the pipeline after this?/

I think those probs have lowered up here since yesterday but I still like the odds.

I’m not that clueless lol. Don’t you look at wpc? I do for trends

So glad you asked. Further west with the coastal. Goes from over nyc ene to east gulf of Maine. Suggests a track bodily over coastal sne. High position looks worse as by Sunday it is ene of Maine. Not good for sne borderline cne, good nne.

Gyx snow probs very high for 5&6 days out

-3 here. Coldest of this winter