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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Front banging into ridge remnants + downslope = disappointment. Yes, that is so winter also.
  2. nrgjeff
    Spike in AAM and MJO wave (that sparked Hagibis) should deliver some BN temps here next week. As Jax noted the supertyphoon may not curve right (more later). At any rate we'll have that stubborn low off the East Coast and new front early next week to keep temps in check. That front next week will be the true usher of cooler air. Takes 2-3 to beat down a SER. Now the remnants of Hagibis are forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest, rather than amp up a long-lasting AK ridge. When the Pac NW gets the fire hose, it's usually blowtorch east of the Rockies. Oh yeah, 360 hour ensembles all have, you guess it.. More SER! Never trust a deterministic that far. However when clusters are so lined up in agreement with another synoptic teleconnection (Pac NW) I'll go warm again here late October. Sets up a warm Novie. Nino climo is warm December. Carvers may be right about a colder shift back half of winter. However I'll go with the brief version. How about another warm Feb? I'll go another KC Chiefs playoff disappointment and mild winter.
  3. nrgjeff
    Teleconnections are less useful south of 40 degrees N now post climate change. The 6-10 day forecast is testament to the 11-15 day fail. Where is our East cold? It's out West! Big typhoon is progged in the Pacific. Look for fun times forecasting October. Weeks 3-4 forecasts are notoriously awful. However, seasonal forecasting (2-5 months) clearly adds value over climo. Reason is less granular. Nailing weeks 3-4 is shooting for the moon, and beyond the state of the art of the science. Broad brushing months 2-5 is both possible and valuable. I have to assume a return to split regime IO/PO Tropical convection in November. If the IOD weakens and Nino gets more full basin (with the +AMO) that's too much warm ocean. Will continue AN temps for winter East Tenn. Delta could see more cold oozing down east of the Ozarks some events. Southeast Tennessee snow impeachment inquiry continues.
  4. nrgjeff
    The cooler balance of October is supported by the robust Kelvin wave and convection pushing out across the International Date Line. Last week of October could warm up again; however, I'm on board with a mild/cool 1-15 day forecast. Unfortunately the rest of my post is bad news. Starts with early and dull leaves on the Cumberland Plateau. Had to go to/from BNA from CHA this week. Pitiful start to fall foliage. Next the Modoki El Nino might not help us in East Tenn. I'm afraid most of the time the PNA sets up to deliver the the West and Plains better. October is no indicator. November behavior is much better correlated with balance of winter. Also +AMO is warm signal here. Believe solar min and -AO is not enough either, due to a weak source region. Falling QBO I think would normally be favorable (trend vs snapshot) but again source region. QBO trend over snapshot was mentioned at the conference I attended last week, good stuff. Also we talked about possible opposite temperature behavior South with the AO, due to climate change. So like in summer -AO is actually warm South even if cold Great Lakes as the jet stream screams through the Ohio Valley. +AO I guess is torch everywhere. Believe the only way back to winters in the South is a long deep solar min. If it is starting now, probably have to wait another winter or two. Then, when the solar minimum is over... See the Climate Change section for no more winter!
  5. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Modoki won't help Southeast winter if the PNA is aligned to send the cold West. SER is my forecast.
  6. nrgjeff
    Actually the AMO graph is quite relevant. Guess what? AN temps again middle of October. Oh what a surprise, lol!
  7. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga 97 Monday beats October all-time. See if we can do it another day or two. What the hell? Go big or go home!
  8. nrgjeff
    Greenday, wake me up when September ends. Wait, it's October and still in the 90s!
  9. nrgjeff
    It's probably right. If one adjusts fronts north 200 miles for climo change, there it is. How often did it used to stall in Tenn? Now it can't get south of the Ohio River. Southeast Tennessee snow was impeached AND removed from office.
  10. nrgjeff
    Yeah we won't see anything in Dixie. Another win for climo.
  11. nrgjeff
    It's a deal if the front brings severe first!
  12. nrgjeff
    ECMWF is saber rattling Dixie Alley 2nd run in a row. GFS is less interested. SPC seems to be leaning Euro. It's way out of climo. Dixie does not have the October rebound like the Plains. I'd like to see this for a few more days. Also the Euro mysteriously has the LLJ totally AWOL. Odd. At any rate it's something more interesting to watch than the SER.
  13. nrgjeff
    Thanks @Carvers Gap but DDC WFO beat me to it 20 years ago when I was at WeatherData in Wichita. We laughed, why are they talking about Indonesia? Fast forward... I'd used the Navy Monterrey satellite page for years, but it got clunky and unreliable about 10 years ago. Found Kochi University out of Japan. It got unreliable a couple years ago. Still I'm a visual guy. Screw the MJO phase. Give me satellite! Finally ahead of travel to Japan last year I searched for their weather service, just for simple 7-day forecasts. Figure their Mets know their weather better than me. Viola! Awesome Himawari satellite on.. Of course on their own web-page, lol! http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/ You can also click on Weather and Earthquakes to get a whole lot of other goodies from their side of the World.
  14. nrgjeff
    I'll start being positive when the KC defense shows up, lol! Although that surprise touchdown was clutch. To be honest most of my angst is related to the NCAA - national commies against athletes.
  15. nrgjeff
    Wall St. Journal called Montana a surprise winter storm. Really? Looked pretty damn well warned, watched, and covered to me!
  16. nrgjeff
    KC Chiefs really pissed me off first half. I was wondering why I ever wished they'd be on TV here. Finally the game ended well for KC. Love to get Detroit out of their dome in Arrowhead, but we'll take the W there!
  17. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'm sad. Can we reverse the 3.4 and 1.2 and get some severe?
  18. nrgjeff
    Might have a problem with the MJO and Kelvin wave. Lots of the convection is south of the Equator which negates some impact. Typhoon is meh Cat 2. Himarwari satellite is depressing. Cooling may be temporary. Look for a return of the SER and AN temps later in Oct. OK not crazy hot, but delays on true fall wx.
  19. nrgjeff
    So glad I never signed up, lol!
  20. nrgjeff
    Yeah it's faster and cleaner. Any way to make the background dark though? Thanks!
  21. nrgjeff
    Somehow we'll whiff down here. Great for Anthony up in New Jersey though, haha. Continue warmer than normal winter forecast. Oh I hate the sterile white board. No way to change? Looks just awful 33 and rainish. American Weather remains the superior weather board.
  22. nrgjeff
    I'm afraid in Jayhawk Land the buzzword is NCAA. Wake me up in May. All is see through April is bad news, fake UNC classes, and AN temps.
  23. nrgjeff
    Probably not. Should I look at some charts, or just keep going off? Just go off. No rain. ECMWF and CFS weeklies are both... Take a wild guess y'all. AN temps BN precip.
  24. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga dewpoint is 70 this morning, utterly unacceptable. Meanwhile from the Nashville WFO..
  25. nrgjeff
    I'll buy the front around October 5 a Saturday. Should finally scour dews for a while too. Ensembles 11-15 day point to a return fetch into the Plains vs here. Yeah, that might be a separate interest, lol! However I figure most of October is warmer than normal. A look at MJO/Kelvin wave analogs 4/5 remain warm. The only cold is 1976, um no. The rest have the MJO stall or slow down before digging into colder phases. Warm late October may not be blasting AC. Just delay heating. So far I'm still a real winter skeptic. No source region. QBO needs to get going and not stall like a few years back. If so, yup I'm still in the school of trend vs snapshot. Leaving the door cracked open.
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