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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    If it can happen in the Plains in early March, Hesston KS Mar. 13, 1990 it certainly happens in the South. That day in March 2012 was prolific on a national scale. This (Saturday) morning SPC expanded the Thursday 15% east to the Alabama Georgia line. Gets into the Lower Plateau as well. As for the MJO, we got a buffet line of convection going into the Maritime Continent. -PNA is indeed activated.
  2. nrgjeff
    Perhaps we can test the TIMS enhanced version. Tornado watches bring even more snow the next system. For those who get anxious about severe wx I'm just jawboning. Day 7 might as well be day 124.
  3. nrgjeff
    Saturday snow is canceled for southeast Tenn. I'm now much more interested in Thursday severe Mid South. Maybe it'll TIMS after that, haha!
  4. nrgjeff
    Vols got a nice road win! Do we have a snow index for that? Also we need a rave glowsticks reaction. Really good news such as.. Garden thread going means spring is coming!
  5. nrgjeff
    Yeah they might want to ask Memphis truck drivers about that, lol! Models could have been better overnight. Southeast Tenn gonna need more @John1122 Feb 2014 vibes. That one got us.
  6. nrgjeff
    Oh my the 18Z NAM has the correct WAA look 700/850 mb. 500 mb vort max digs better. Going to issue a Snow Lovers Heart Ripped Out by NAM watch.
  7. nrgjeff
    This is a big test for the EC. As @Vol4Life points out the Euro is having an off season. Still I'd like to see even a little tiny hint of WAA at 700/850 mb but the EC upper trough interaction remains a no-go. My personal conceptual model remains Upper Plateau to Mountains and a decent chance MRX to TRI. Lazy general pattern recognition is right 90% of the time. Those are the regions that can squeeze from the northern stream if the southern craps out. Hedge your bets!
  8. nrgjeff
    Weekly products all support severe weather on or after President's Day. AN temps with AN precip Mid South or Deep South. Hints of a passing wave that week before a more robust SER. Then start Hoosier Alley season! Other evidence is a severe favorable MJO impulse. Also the Polar Vortex is locked up so no SSW to spoil early chase season.
  9. nrgjeff
    Yeah look for WAA at 700 mb and 850 mb. GFS and Canadian have it. Ukie too. NAM does not at 00Z Sunday and neither did the Euro. We eagerly await the 12Z Euro! Getting to root causes of forecast differences is indeed the OV PVA. We need Southern to dominate. Carvers explains very well the pitfalls. Event has a high ceiling AND high bust potential, more than usual even here. Maybe if I jawbone in the severe thread it'll help, haha!
  10. nrgjeff
    Some snow north of I-40 mainly east of Nashville would not surprise me this weekend. Above progged moisture for TRI would get the job done. Upper Plateau has a good chance of sticking snow IMHO. Mountains will see some good accumulation at higher elevations.
  11. nrgjeff
    For all you who think SEC refs are biased, Big 12 gave a clinic on poor officiating last night. Kansas was gang raped at the post and hardly any of it was called. Could have scored 4-6 extra points off free-throws. Texas got plenty of ticky tacky calls against KU. Normally officiating isn't an excuse, but this game was scripted to keep the Big 12 close for TV revenue.
  12. nrgjeff
    Threading the needle is the only hope for Southeast Tenn. Otherwise Carvers is right it's mostly strike-outs for the rest of the Region. What am I doing in this thread? Upper Plateau and Mountains could cash in if we can get a buffet line of clippers going. Last time I personally got snow from a clipper was probably KC circa 1990, lol! Does not count NC WV ski trips.
  13. nrgjeff
    Perhaps the thunder followed by snow can verify in the mountains. Just saw another Southeast Tennessee system turn offshore snoozer. I've closed the books on winter Southeast Tenn. GFS picks up on the severe system Day 10 but there are typical questions 10 days out. Watch it slide south and snow on Chatty just to make me eat my words, haha!
  14. nrgjeff
    Both! What else would one expect in the South? LOL Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5
  15. nrgjeff
    I feel like this thread is missing posts. At any rate it's always a good time to jawbone severe weather early and often.
  16. nrgjeff
    It's amazing what can happen when High Press is properly anchored north of the region. Too bad it's more than 10 days out. Tennessee showing up on the road. I know the game just started, but the tone is set!
  17. nrgjeff
    Yeah radar misses Plateau upslope. Most of the cloud, at least the nucleation, is below the beam from any radar site. I have settled into talking about everyone else's snow. GFS is caving to the warmer Euro. See you in the severe thread.
  18. nrgjeff
    Don't ask that question in the South, lol! My Cousin Vinny is classic South too. Tennessee, Auburn and LSU should have wins but all are on the road. UK at Bama may be more interesting than whatever spread comes out. Ole Miss at Florida and MSU at Arkansas might have tighter spreads, but who knows? Over in the Big 12, tell me which Kansas shows up and I'll tell you if they beat Baylor. It is a home game, but so was Kentucky. Bedlam (OU at OSU) will be a barn burner but I favor home team.
  19. nrgjeff
    With all the rain softening soil, even a marginal mountain wave event will damage trees. I concur with Matt.
  20. nrgjeff
    Dyersburg is SLEET per correlation coefficient on radar. 11:37 am Central Time. Still true at Noon. Memphis airport is just above freezing but points north in the metro are 32 or lower and have 1/4 to 3/8 inch of ice.
  21. nrgjeff
    Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain!
  22. nrgjeff
    Yeah we got the -ABNA trying to go. That's cold South China and Southeast USA if it verifies. 11-15 day did trend colder.
  23. nrgjeff
    Surprised how quiet the thread has become. We don't do ice? I certainly agree ice is by far the worst kind of weather. Arctic front may surge more into Middle Tenn. OHX has been hinting at teeing up stronger winter / ice messaging after getting the public aware of the flooding first. Saw MEM occasionally above 32 on CAMs. Overmixing. Little CAD east of the Ozarks is going to keep the Delta freezing and probably also the Memphis metro. Pain. Pain. Pain.
  24. nrgjeff
    We need to do these boundaries in spring. When's the next chance of severe weather? Thursday sweet (adopted) home Alabama! Oh I forgot in spring the boundary hangs up south and we remain stable. In winter it surges north and we remain rain. This is the Way.
  25. nrgjeff
    Missouri is going to get absolutely drilled with ice storm and snow storm. They don't call it the Show-Me State for nothing! Tennessee will almost certainly win tonight but I don't know about the spread. Auburn should win but Bama likes to rise to the occasion. LSU spread is ludicrous, but they will win. Kansas will lose. If Iowa state goes to say +6.5 I bet against Kansas. Texas Tech looks like the best Big 12 bet tonight. Kentucky and Duke are Final Four bound - excellent on the road.
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