nrgjeff

Two years ago we were all reflecting on the second total solar eclipse in seven years. Now I look up and see boring. Only 19 more years until the next big total solar eclipse in the South. August 2045 will offer six minutes of amazing!

Rain Saturday night was an Easter miracle. I don't see much more for a couple weeks. Might be able to get some quality precip late April but delays would not surprise me. Gotta chip away at what will become a significant SER and Mid-Atlantic ridge. Then getting into May (note weeks 3-5 are notoriously awful forecasts) charts show WNW flow and only normal precip. Meh. Weeks 3-5 are considered the un-sweet forecast range beyond daily extended forecasting yet not covered by reliable seasonal signals. Hope for all our yards is El Nino signal kicks in quickly in June. Normal heights and seasonable moisture would open the door for summer thundershowers. We'll see if / how the drought impacts dewpoints though.

Memphis Pyramid Effect.. or the Great Wall of the Mississippi River.. or a stubborn Southeast Ridge. My chips are on the latter. Frustrating!

The Great Plains may have a good week. First we have this Tuesday trouble in Illinois, which may relaod on Thursday. The real Alley is up on Wednesday and perhaps again on Friday. There's no place like Kansas - except both the tornadoes and the Jayhawks have been in a coma the last 4 seasons. Looks like the early week Illinois system never sends a front our way. After Plains / Midwest system number 2 we should have thunderstorms in the Mid-South on Saturday. Timing and weakening LLJ limit severe chances IMHO. Then on Sunday we'd like to see skies quickly clear for Easter. Cool trough is forecast early next week. Next system is forecast late next week into that weekend. April 12th anyone? Oh my!

Mountains were pretty! We got a few runs up at Sugar. After hitting 80 in Chatty last week, driving up and seeing snow before reaching the Tri Cities was a trip. Great time with family spring break. So looks like the AC will be humming this weekend. Then back to slightly below normal temps next week (except midweek). Should even get cool and cozy nights and mornings a few days next week. WNW flow in early spring is a wild ride! Appears that the last few days of March will usher in a warm early April. Mid Atlantic ridge may not be centered over the Valley. See if it'll let in some April showers.

Well here in the South I'd have said the same thing, lol! Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas and Auburn (NIT) all play today. My Wichita State is also in the NIT. Could be a fun day. Could be heartburn. What happened to Georgia? STL opened up a can of General Sherman. Not a huge upset 8v9 but an epic blowout!

That could happen if we get a Rockies trough and Mid Atlantic ridge. All 3 major weekly products have AN heights in the Mid Atlantic, but normal out West. Would be enough if a system or two pass through that flow. Until then I don't see much exciting. Might get wind/hail outlooks (like Day 3 Sunday from Friday) but the WNW flow should keep tornado outlooks in check for 10+ days. We'll see what April brings.

Hey @jaxjagman I have no idea. How was the wind at your location? UPDATE to my posts: UAH sounding shows about half the forecast 0-1 km shear. Time to check the college basketball schedule.

Surface temps are pushing 80 which primes the Valley. Storms coming in from Middle Tennessee have meant business. We'll see how they hold across the Plateau. Not much action yet in North Mississippi. I believe it's a local area of subsidence (or at least less rising) in the wake of the Tennessee stuff. Another upper wave lurks, making quick progress from the Ark-La-Tex. Good thing the low levels are veered off all crazy. If those winds were backed and/or had better convergence on a mesoscale boundary it'd be trouble. As it is, just the synoptic front and its orientation should favor mainly straight-line wind. The hatched 2% remains valid and legit. Still this is mainly gonna be straight wind. No chase plans.

SPC site is slow. Anything going on? Couple models juice up the southern stream and get cells going ahead of the line in MS/AL. Otherwise this whole thing is mainly a line from Tennessee to the Deep South. I lean toward the latter mainly straight winds.

You got it! I think of the Mid-South starting with the MEM CWA, then add West Kentucky. Might some add to the halfway point of KY/TN. Sometimes for chasing I'll fudge it to northwest Alabama. Vague boundaries help hedge forecasts, to be honest haha. Note that all of Mississippi and all of all of Alabama are considered Deep South too. East Tennessee into northeast Alabama I'll often refer to as the Tennessee Valley. Of course the River goes on downstream curling north into the Ohio River, but at that point I'm talking Mid-South. Speaking of all this.. Mid-month cold could start Mid-South. However it should eventually have a little longer stay in the Valley. Keep in mind cold in March is nothing like cold in Feb. Shouldn't be too bad. At the same time, Mountains could get late season snow showers a couple times. Moderator / Admin: Feel free to move this and/or copy to one of the resources threads.

I hope you enjoyed the Skywarn talk! I'm down in Chatty so I was not there. However, I attended an NWS emergency manager talk in Chatty on Monday that covers the new SPC products. As for the rest of March seems like we might get into a couple cooler weeks starting mid-month. That's more valid East or upper half of the Tennessee Valley. Mid-South could remain warmer. Such a pattern leaves the door open for Mountain snow showers. First we have to get through the mid-term blowtorch. I don't see a reason to forecast a cool depressing spring though. Some back and forth like Carvers mentions seems reasonable. Warm weeks, I'd like to add side orders of southwest flow aloft and CAPE.

Good to see more severe weather interst this season. Not everyone digs it, but a few of us are down! If Tuesday gets going in the Southern Plains and Ozarks then pattern recognition calls for sloppy seconds our way. See Day 7 a few posts back for Tuesday. More recent quoted 8-14 day post is six days old and the chart is way out of date. Heavy precip made it into the WPC 3-7 day but no severe. Next Wednesday Mar. 11 the the door is open for continuing severe, even if no new development. Continuing is of course a messy outcome. Alas, it could all just be heavy rain. See below. Their hatched flood risk has not changed much for the Mid-South (just expanded) since the flooding hatch is a hybrid River and snow melt outlook too. CPC chart from Wed. Mar. 4

probably a decent approx. Severe Wx doesn't get outlooks so far out. Rest of this week prolly hangs up to our west. Next week could get scrappy. Either way heavy rain may become a risk. s

I give winter an B in southeast Tennessee. Snowfall was slightly above normal IMBY which lifts it above C. A is reserved for a six inch thumper. B means I'm not complaining. I'm actually quite satisfied. Fighting the trend is hard too, so really a C would be a win. Temperatures are about half-way between the coldest and the warmest in Earth's history. Warm periods include tropical forests on Greenland and Arctica. Ice Ages oscillate between glaciation periods (what the public refers to ice ages) and interglacial periods which we are in right now (within the broader Ice Age). Will we glaciate, hold, or climb out of the Ice Age? If the latter it would be an order or two magnitudes SLOWER than the current trend of warming. What has happened in the last 150 years and what is very likely in the next 150 years is 10 to 100 times faster than natural warming driven by Milankovitch Cycles. Rate is the problem, and why we assign the cause to human activity. I'm not calling for extreme action since cheap energy is the fastest route to end poverty, but I want to acknowledge the research. That's probably enough outside of the specific Climate forum, but that place is a hornet's nest. From this point forward, look for me in the Severe Weather topic of our Regional forum.