nrgjeff
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About nrgjeff
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Ope! Moderate risk is posted for Friday (night). But hey, John is just 15% in the hail genre. So how badly did my post age? Moderate is a wind hatched 45%. They keep the worst hail NW Tenn into Kentucky. The 10% TOR is along and north of a line from Dyersburg to Clarksville. For most of us this is a straight-line wind storm on Friday night. ENH is our 30% wind. Perhaps we are due to blow some trees down on I-40? It's been several years, ha!
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Don't worry @John1122 SPC just has Slight on Friday, and I agree. Of course with high cape and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail is a concern. However will that type of intense storm be common? There is an argument for bowing segments, which favors straight wind instead. First we should have some thundershowers on Friday morning. Morning rain should leave an outflow boundary in Tenn. It should lift from Tennessee north through Kentucky by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms should redevelop from Kentucky north into the Lower Ohio River Valley. Kentucky could get a few supercells Friday afternoon. I'd put the hail up there. Indeed CAPE will be high and mid-level lapse rates steep. If one believes the Euro with farther south boundary and rain, it'd be too stable in Tennessee anyway. I figure storms will congeal into a cluster or two in Kentucky, and perhaps come through Tennessee as a line Friday night. That'd favor straight wind over hail. A smaller Enhanced risk would not surprise me around where the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers meet. Depends on if and where a mesoscale triple point can form.
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Thank you! I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought I heard a plane. Still it was a much flatter sound, vs the approach depart Doppler effect on sound waves. Nerd out time! Anyway, I was in a wide span gym at the time. Perhaps I heard the roof rattling? Never felt it. Plane like sound was too flat to be a plane. I dismissed it as HVAC grumbling. Wife was at home and happened to be upstairs. She said she felt it noticeably, which makes sense upstairs, but she first thought it's a truck on our street. Getting to the main weather pattern, no May heat is seen. Yeah it'll get pretty warm later this week and again next week, but that's between cold fronts. I don't really count that as a heat ridge. Then we might close out May nice and cool esp in the Apps. Out in Calif they say earthquake weather is warm and dry. Apparently in Tennessee it's mild and showery. Hmmm maybe climo is a good place to start.
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Local action without a major outbreak is tough to do in East Tennessee. These are really the best days! Work isn't nuts, but we still got a shot at seeing a good shelfie or random ping pong ball. Oh I should be careful about what I wish. China had giant hail yesterday. We don't need that! Golfball is the red line where it goes from neat stuff to big trouble. We also have a 2% tornado which feels broad. I'd focus that right on the east-west boundary that will sharpen up by late afternoon. It's forecast along or just south of I-40. If it can stay up there, the Upper Cumberland Plateau has a history of modest tornadoes beneath otherwise meh upper-level shear. I believe being elevated promotes a stronger surface wind; then add a boundary, and it's just enough low level shear. Elsewhere I feel like shear is just not quite there. Upper levels are modest. Low levels get a little veered south of I-40. We'll see.
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Mesoscale details are flexing in a pattern that acts more like June 2. In fact our lead wave is an MCV from overnight Texas activity. So June. Then outflow boundaries are strewn about. MD #648 keys in on outflow spit out from ongoing thunderstorms approaching Middle Tenn. New line going through Memphis will be able to interact with the said outflow boundary. I also feel like a more diffuse boundary stretches east through North Alabama into North Georgia, attempting to lift north farther east. That boundary could be left over from Thursday evening storms. While it has a couple more hours to destabilize, scattered storms are already developing that way. When the main line gets there it should have a bow shape which favors straight wind over rotation. QLCS spin-up or two might be possible. Otherwise, I think the diffuse boundary just serves to keep storms robust and straight winds strong.
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This weekend is going to feel cool after some muggy evenings this week. Then next week looks like overnight lows stay nice with near perfect afternoons in the 70s. Above normal heights North with normal South will be nice as long as we can keep it going. Brings ample rain. Keeps temps in check. Sure be nice into summer.
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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread
nrgjeff replied to lookingnorth's topic in Central/Western States
Good day to review maps of the Palo Duro Canyon and the limited road crossings. 5% in the Panhandle. 60 hatched gnashing of teeth if one gets stuck missing the show or worse. -
This weather pattern would get us through summer without drought. Heights are only slightly AN and the latest front got through our region (though not the Deep South). Later in summer if the center of the ridge is north then t-showers can pop up down here on the underside. That's a humid outcome though. Fortunately we probably still have another couple months (at least six week) of fronts getting through.
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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread
nrgjeff replied to lookingnorth's topic in Central/Western States
Days and days of Marginal to Slight risks on the Texas Caprock, at times up to Raton Mesa, Colorado. Anything other than the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles shouldn't be as crowded - Colorado or down toward the Edwards Plateau. Kid of wish I'd went out there this week. I try not to think like that. Travel chasing means one is certainly going to miss early season days. Nebraska last week is an example. Happy for those who got it; never thought about going myself. This week is different because it's multiple days. What once looked like fluctuating heights and cap questions, ends up being enough southwest flow aloft, with corresponding LLJ response each evening, and moisture at the surface. Activity should still be Plains centered this weekend after a trough spits out on Friday. Main trough remains in the Rockies for perhaps a couple more days over the weekend and/or early next week. SPC notes some cap risk on Sunday. -
Guess we get decent coverage of rain.. Referencing my post in the main spring discussion thread. Then the WPC discussion reads like something out of summer. Are we really doing this so early? National pattern too. Days and days of Marginal to Slight on the Texas Caprock. Crap! I should be out there this week.
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Yes hopefully we can get decent coverage of thundershowers this week. Except for this Marginal, which really reminds me of a lumbering summer front, it doesn't look severe. Anyway the ol' boundary should help Tuesday and Wednesday as well, esp southern Tennessee border into MS/AL/GA. Then it looks like next week and perhaps the first full week of May the Region has slightly below normal precip. I'm not as optimistic as the CPC. We'll get days but not many. Ridge meanders from the Plains to Midwest, which will keep fronts fewer. No hardcore SER so temps should only be slightly AN. That same pattern in the summer would allow pop up storms but it'd also be humid. Whether we like it or not it could be a preview. That said I figure we'll get one more cool trough sometime in May before we go balls-to-the-wall until August.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Summer forecast you can take to the Bank!
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Twitter is now melting down because the hype casts will bust. X marks the spot for poor science, lol! It never looked like a classic sequence, just seasonable flow returning after the Gulf Coast scouring this week. Just seasonable certainly means some sloppy days. Easter Sunday looks like a glancing blow Mid-South to Midwest. Then it looks like rain gets in here next week, but I'm not sure how much severe. Big concern (Plains chasers) is we go from sloppy to capped, with few classic days. For the South that's sloppy to nothing. Much of that (Plains) depends on QPF this weekend into next week to set up (or not) the beginning of May. Drought Monitor has improved markedly but needs more work.
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Thursday may be the last cool morning for a while. But yeah, I still wouldn't plant tomatoes up on the Plateau. Weekend may have a late spring feel. Getting the weekend front south of I-40 will be a chore as the ol' SER perks up. Looks like next week the front finally drops behind the Sunday system. That looks like Mid-South straight to Midwest. Mercifully East Tennessee looks quiet Easter 2025. We have not forgotten Easter 2020. Then toward May the jet stream gets gummed up. Models are still moving things but slowly. Most ensemble members have normal precip. A few block out much of the Southeast esp GEFS. The EPS has more rain.
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Historic Tennessee Valley Severe Weather Events
nrgjeff replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I love the unpolished look to the radar and the graphics. Also the teletype back then. Keep it raw, like wild weather should be!
