bch2014

I have family in Southeast Hill County, in the part sticking down just above the “0” in 11.0... They just got 5-6” earlier this winter so to add another foot on top of that would mean an approximately 20” in a season. The return rate on that kind of winter is probably 100 years for central Texas.

I don't really understand the logic in buying into NYC metro real estate (and to a lesser extent, greater Boston real estate as well) right now if you're expecting significant appreciation in property values. If you're buying because you want to live in the house for the next 40 years, then that's different... But that's not why the average 28 y/o who just moved out of Park Slope is buying... They're doing it because it's "less cool" to live in the city right now... And I say this as someone who is 25 and has the financial capacity to/considered buying a condo in Hoboken/Jersey City this summer... So it's not sour grapes. I can kind of understand buying into the city as prices have dipped somewhat. But-if you believe the thesis that companies, jobs, and wealth are relocating south to Nashville, Miami, Dallas, etc... What exactly is the upshot on suburban real estate in the northeast? The cities, at least in theory, will always have some kind of intrinsic value due to their cultural attractions and capital... But what justifies the 3x premium on real estate in suburban NYC and Boston vs. Dallas or Nashville if the high paying jobs that support those prices are leaving the area. And if you don't believe that those jobs are leaving the Northeastern cities, then why is the buyer leaving the city in the first place...? Moreover, with rising interest rates likely over the next 3-5 years, you're likely to see some topline compression (or at least more muted growth) in home values as buyers will no longer have access to such cheap loans. Anyhow-off my soap box-but my main point remains: How do you square the rising home prices in suburban NYC and Boston with the narrative (supported by some empirical evidence) that the high-paying jobs that enable those prices are moving to the sun belt?

How does it look for the follow-up Thursday/Friday system?

I actually don’t day trade. I was just helping out with the brokerage question. That said, it’s hard to say if you should cut your losses or not. The whole marijuana sector was down today, so it wasn’t $SNDL specific... Which would lead me to suggest that you wait for another bounce up before unloading it. That said-marijuana valuations are so frothy right now that who knows if the memeist of them of them all ($SNDL) will post a new high anytime soon. FWIW, my two most recent purchases are PHM and BMBL (bought at $71 a bit before the market closed today). I see home builders as being great bets over the next 24 months and PHM has an attractive PEG. As for BMBL, they just IPO’ed but it has room to run to the upside with reopening and people starting to date again. I think they have opportunity to steal market share from their chief competitor, MTCH.

Skiing Magic on Sunday so fingers majorly crossed.

12z GFS doesn't have much precipitation for SNE and is essentially a snow showers/upslope event in VT. 12z ICON looks like 2-4 regionwide.

Isn’t this kind of the same in the South though? For example, I’ve heard of people skiing at Snowshoe have situations where it’s been snowing at the peak (where the lodge is also located) but be raining at the bottom of the lifts.

I wouldn’t be so sure about zero interest rates for the next couple years. The fed hasn’t officially ruled out raising rates in late 2021 (though I think they’re unlikely) but I think it’s fair to say that rate hikes should be every investors base case in calendar year 2022. Will they still be low by historical standards-yes, most likely.. But above the current baseline? Yes, most likely.

Yup! TD Ameritrade should also have an order type called "stop limit" which can protect you against the "gapping" issue I described. See this YouTube video.

Not sure what brokerage you use but this is traditionally known as a "stop loss" order. You set a price and the stock automatically sells if the price crosses that threshold. Though, if it gaps down to that price on the open, you will get whatever price it opens at (instead of your stop loss price).

Temperature departures through the 1st third of the month... It's felt cold (here in NYC too)... But really hasn't been too bad. A bit colder relative to normal the further south you go, but I consider +/- 1 "normal." BOS: +0.6 BDL: -0.1 PVD: +0,6 ORH: +1.5 BDR: +0.3 ISP: -0.7 NYC: -0.9 EWR: -1.2

GFS OTS for the Saturday night/Sunday morning storm.

Yup-I'm an Epic Passholder but I'm staying the hell away from Hunter/Mt Snow/Okemo/etc this weekend. Always have wanted to try Platty so hopefully can catch it prime.

Making plans to ski Plattekill on Sunday... Hoping that it's far enough north/high enough elevation to avoid any mix.

That's total seasonal snowfall. Not current depth.

The NH state income tax ain’t bad either ;).

Left UES at about 9:20 heading west to ski the afternoon at Jack Frost. Was snowing big aggregates and accumulated on my hair as I walked the ten blocks to my car. Was pounding snow in Morristown area... lots of cars off the road. Now out by Hopatcong and intensity has lessened but still steady. Tough to say how much accumulation here from the highway.

Interesting that Anchorage is BN this year. Just down the road in Girdwood/Alyeska they’ve been getting smoked. 113” of snow at mid mountain (~1500’) and 150” at the summit.

It’s funny seeing a report for “East Acton.” I’ve heard South Acton before (near the commuter rail station), North Acton (NARA Park), and west Acton before... But East Acton? I guess it’s the piece near the Concord rotary.

I made a comment on here a few weeks ago that it never seemed like Concord jacked when I was a kid... This might be the storm! Jealous!

My friend at 6600’ in Truckee. I’m pretty sure there’s a sedan buried behind the SUV.

Gunsight at Alta this morning.. Alta has plenty of snow to have a great time but certainly thinner than when I’ve skied there in the past. Bonus photo of Lavell Edwards with Mt Timponogas (sp?) in background. My 52nd FBS CFB stadium visited (games at about 30 of them). Ironically, never been to my childhood state U’s stadium (UMass).

Low tide but can find some spots here and there at Snowbasin today.

Just boarded my flight at DFW for SLC. They’re slammed in the Wasatch after what’s been an anemic start to season... Out here for the next 9 days. Going to ski 5, and “WFH” Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.

When you say the “front face,” are you referring to the trails off the Zoomer lift (often called the “Front Five”) or are you referring to trails off the top like Profile, Ravine, etc? I typically find that the Zoomer chair is pretty wind protected whereas a trail like Profile makes Cannon live up to its icy reputation.