bch2014

Instead of getting into a pissing match over how full flights are... Let’s look at the data. # of passengers is 50-70% of pre pandemic levels depending on the day/week. https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput This data is lagging, but ASMs were essentially tracking a bit ahead of air traffic in terms of recovery as of January. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASM If we assume that trend has continued, flights are slightly less crowded than the before times but hardly empty flights like last spring/summer. My last few flights (LGA-BNA-BNA, HHH-CLT-LGA) have been packed (a couple empty seats). Upgrades are still easier to come by though with the lack of business travelers.

Only people ready to drop masks on the subway based on my trip 15 mins ago are the homeless! Even saw a few N95s. Meanwhile, there have been 0 cases in my zip code in the last week.

What station I’ll tune in

I think rules-wise MA and VT were very similar-but attitude wise from the population, MA is/was much more "scoldy."

The CT death rate is only slightly lower than MA. MA just has lots of super cautious people. I spend lots of time in NY, NJ, CT, MA, and NH (and slightly less but still a decent amount in VT) and MA has by far the most cautious population IMO.

My friend that I was visiting at Ft Campbell last week is an infantry officer. There’s been lots of resistance amongst enlisted soldiers to getting vaccinated. They’re instituting a policy that one can’t leave the Ft Campbell area for summer leave unless vaccinated in order to get their #’s up. It’s apparently been a major pain in the butt for the Army to plan training exercises, etc due to Covid outbreaks still occurring.

Proof of vaccine is required to attend sporting events in the non-socially distant section here in NY but I think we might be the only state doing that.

I agree that the greatest generation certainly went through a lot and my generation certainly pales in comparison. The good thing though is that Gen X (toughest, most hearty generation of all time) has most of the political power in the country right now and they’re omniscient so I expect all the problems will resolve.

Congrats @PhineasC

So where are they? Because this forum has a heavy male skew, probably has a higher median income than society at large, and has a wide range of ages... The reality of the situation is that most “traders” over the past year have made some nice money, but only a fraction of those have made life-changing money, so the self-made retail fat cats that you refer to are few and far between and are certainly not representative of a generation at large like you seem to think. Provide me evidence that a significant portion of this generation’s best and brightest are day trading as a career. You can’t.

I’m confused: If it’s so easy to get rich off TikTok and crypto why is it more competitive than ever for 22-25 y/o’s to get jobs as software engineers with FAANG, analysts at Bulge Bracket banks, consultants at McKinsey, etc... If all these high IQ individuals are gunning for those spots, are they just rubes for not seeing the money trees elsewhere? The only place that one can honestly say top talent is going to work for in large numbers that has anything to do with crypto is Coinbase. The rest of this crowing is just generational insecurity/projection.

Are you saying that your mortgage is 2200/month in Southie (confused if you have people renting from you)? If so, you must’ve put a lot of money down... Most restaurants aren’t hiring Southie triple deckers owners.

I don't know what's going on with this cleaning robot, but I work with many large retailers and they're ALL looking to automate as much as they can. For example, in the Walmarts with sizable backrooms, you've got robots flying all over the place, moving pallets, unloading tractor trailers, etc... It's the way of the future. It's not just an Amazon thing. For as much talk on here about the difficulty of hiring cashiers, restaurant staff, etc... It's even harder to hire good warehouse labor.

I think you mean brick and mortar retail is dead (which I'd argue isn't true-we're transitioning to an omni-channel retail environment), but e-commerce is still retail... US consumer spending is at a higher level than ever thanks to the much-maligned stimulus checks, enhanced UI, etc... You can't have it both ways.

That’s not even true though-large retailers have lower consumer prices than smaller retailers. It’s also false that they don’t pay taxes (except for Amazon, but believe it or not, they’re still a relative bit player in retail). A sample of effective tax rates for large retailers: KR: 23.2% ACI: 19.8% WMT: 33.4% HD: 23.9%

So I agree with you on the free college piece-totally unnecessary given the labor force dynamics we see... Especially given that a large portion of those who find themselves in trouble with student debt are those who never complete their degree. Finish your degree and you likely won’t have a problem. Making the debt dischargeable in BK would seem to be the more reasonable policy. With regard to the free broadband, I’m not sure what government program you’re referring to... But if you’re referring to rural broadband expansion, that was one of the few parts of the most recent Biden plan I agreed with... If businesses in Berlin, NH can’t communicate efficiently with the rest of the world, why would they locate there? Would seem to be a great economic boom to rural America, and wouldn’t directly benefit individuals/provide a disincentive to work, but rather spur job creation in areas that lag. I do think it’s amazing though the way you talk about my generation. In my friend groups, none of us live at home, all of us have good jobs or are pursuing a MD or PhD, etc... Most of my friends are pretty liberal too (I’m more conservative than all/most of them), but don’t fit the mold of government free-rider. I’m 25-so statistically my friends are anomalous-but I think it points to the continued bifurcation in American society. Lots of people doing great, and lots doing not-so-great.

Not sure what age group Phineas is talking about but unemployment is actually higher among young men than young women. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm

Yup-You went to Cornell, right (don't know why'd you know Ithaca weather so well otherwise)? The hotel school would be a great example of what I'm talking about... You can get a great banking or consulting role out of there, whereas a hospitality major from Directional State U won't have the same opportunity. I don't really have a great solution to this issue. Even if you diversify the pipeline of students going into these universities, alums are still going to want hire new grads from their institutions... I suppose you could say "you can't hire more than XYZ employees in a year from ABC institutions" but the marketplace for talent is so competitive these days that I don't know if that's practical.

One interesting element to this discussion that is semi-paradoxical is the following: The more prestigious/higher ranked the university, the more the earning potential of STEM and non-STEM degrees converge. A classic example of this is that it's pretty common for an English major new grad from Harvard to get a job doing a high-paying, low-"hard skill" job (say M&A advisory at Evercore or Centerview to use an extreme example) but that would be impossible outside of (most generously) the USNWR top twenty schools. However, taken in the aggregate, top twenty USNWR schools have a higher % of STEM students than the balance of US higher education... So you end up with a situation where the liberal arts degrees that DO have value are "underutilized" and the liberal arts degrees that DON'T have value are "oversubscribed."

In Tennessee/Kentucky (Fort Campbell area) this weekend... Honestly not much of a difference here in terms of masks compared to NYC, which surprised me. Most every business here is still requiring masks. Definitely was expecting lower compliance based on what I saw in South Carolina in March.

RC Cola is actually owned by Keurig Dr. Pepper-I don’t know for sure, but I bet they execute pricing changes on it in line with the rest of their portfolio (Dr. Pepper, 7UP, Snapple, etc). If we’re talking niche sodas though-I’d have to go with Cheerwine as my favorite.

Typically you’ll see visual pricing of 4-5% every two years, and then in the “odd years” companies will take weight out of their packages but maintain visual pricing. It truly is dependent on the category though and there are dynamics at play besides just commodity/labor/input costs-For example, I used to work for PepsiCo-we had a lot more pricing power on the Frito-Lay side of the business as we were dominant player in salty snacks vs. on the beverage side, they always let KO take pricing first as they’ve got higher market share in carbonated soft drinks. None of that is proprietary information, they talk about that kind of stuff on the earnings call.

My (food/confectionary) company just gave a 4.5% net pricing increase to our customers (averaged across the portfolio-some items more, some less). Customers can decide how they want to pass that on to the consumer-They’ll pass along most of it but will take a 20-30bps haircut to their margins. That’s pretty much standard across CPG right now-definitely not 30-40% increases. Can’t speak to what is happening in meat/dairy/veg.

I’m something of a nomad-I can find positives and negatives in any place. I grew up in Massachusetts, went to college in Houston, had my first job out of college in Dallas for 2 years, and have now lived in NYC for 18 months... My company will probably want to move me again mid-2022. Likely candidates are Nashville, San Antonio, or Minneapolis. I can make a compelling argument for why each is/is not a good place to live. Certainly, housing is cheaper in those three markets than the greater NYC area. But, while a move would likely signal another promotion and career advancement, I would certainly miss being back within driving distance of much of my family, who largely live in the DC-SNH corridor. To say that @MJO812 is wrong in considering his family in where he wants to live is misguided.

I see your point but the situation in Baltimore is much, much worse than Boston was at its worst. Boston’s deadliest year (1990) had 143 murders. Baltimore had 330 last year. They are similar size cities (population wise). But Baltimore should fear not-St. Louis is still outpacing it (by quite a wide margin in fact). Other contenders are Memphis and New Orleans.