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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    That's my wag. I called for 2-4" dc/balt metros and 4-7" far N&W, and don't see any reason to change that. I'd love to get 5" out of this, though!
  2. Terpeast
    Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning.
  3. Terpeast
    High end potential: Low end floor:
  4. Terpeast
    It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago
  5. Terpeast
    Probably mount PSU and places up near the m/d line, and someone around the dc metro may eek out 6”
  6. Terpeast
    Technically a stj-enhanced northern stream wave. A good sign for qpf verifying on the high end of forecast
  7. Terpeast
    My thoughts too. I’m at 37/19
  8. Terpeast
    Temps aren’t the problem north of 66
  9. Terpeast
    Yeah, it’s pretty much noise. 0z ICON is actually similar to 12z
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, that would bring the grade on my snowfall outlook from an F to a D
  11. Terpeast
    Interesting take. That may be what it takes to dissipate these marine heat waves. Hopefully we can do that without too much collateral damage.
  12. Terpeast
    Looks like 3-4" area wide north of 50/66
  13. Terpeast
    Weird, not sure. Some overlapping going on there..
  14. Terpeast
    Probably automated
  15. Terpeast
    They’ll probably replace it with a new headline. Not sure why they hoisted a special weather statement in the first place, especially seeing that they hoisted a WSW soon after
  16. Terpeast
    Glad to see the euro hold instead of trending north. Sticking with 2-4” for dc/balt with a little more upside
  17. Terpeast
    Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable.
  18. Terpeast
    Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this
  19. Terpeast
    Interesting tweet, and digging deeper into the upper level maps, I agree. This gets us more upside in terms of qpf, but the DC metro is dangerously close to missing the best banding with this north trend. I don't think we go 4/4 on last minute south trend this time.
  20. Terpeast
    Precip field actually shifted north on the GFS too. It's just farther south than other models like NAM and ICON. I'm not buying the 4-6" across northern neck and SoMD.
  21. Terpeast
    First call: South of 66: 1-2” locally 3” Between 66 and 70: 2-4” North of 70: 4-7” Mountains: 5-10” Subject to change, hopefully with a last minute south trend. (But it COULD shift north)
  22. Terpeast
    Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? this is the ICON thread after all…
  23. Terpeast
    Good run, but careful not to get any further amped else we'll either have temp issues or the best banding goes north of DC
  24. Terpeast
    0.5" qpf from harrisonburg through winchester through Loudoun and MoCo
  25. Terpeast
    850mb low just south of us, precip almost ending in DMV. Not longer duration, but maybe a heavier thump
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