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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Just checked the calendar for something work related… and couldn’t help but notice that Feb 23-25 falls on a weekend.
  2. Terpeast
    Don’t be surprised folks if the next euro control run shows nothing or rain 20 days out. As long as we have the pattern and it moves closer in time, we should be fine
  3. Terpeast
    Not really, no. Not with support from a background pattern like the plots we're seeing for mid-late month
  4. Terpeast
    It does also mean we have a legit shot at a MECS/HECS, which is something that couldn't be said for the last 8 years.
  5. Terpeast
    Right rear entrance of northern jet + Front left exit of southern jet = double jet signature!
  6. Terpeast
    Look at that 50/50 with an incoming STJ wave. Canada no longer torched, should be cold enough to snow from NC north
  7. Terpeast
    I think it has gotten a lot more competitive now than in my generation overall, but there was still decent competition in my age group. My 50m free was in the low-mid 24s and 50m breast was 32 something. I don't recall my 100m free time because it was a long-course pool and I wasn't used to that, so I had a bad race. But the 100y short course was low 49
  8. Terpeast
    Nice, you're doing great! Mine was free and breast, and like you I was a sprinter. 50/100m events were in my wheelhouse. Made it to state in my junior and senior years Now all this discussion about swimming is starting to get me motivated about it again! Not gonna dive into Masters or anything, but just to get things going a little bit more. I sit too much for work!
  9. Terpeast
    Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open
  10. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t go that far. I have folks on my ignore list and EJ isn’t one of them. Pessimistic, maybe. But he’s provided a lot of value with the mesonet stuff.
  11. Terpeast
    Good day to go out for a nice long run. I love cold, but I hate exercising out in it, and the rowing machine is getting a little boring
  12. Terpeast
    Not at all. Get the cold here first, then bring on the STJ parade
  13. Terpeast
    Yep, 850 starts to flip BN on the 14th - remarkably consistent over the past week’s worth of runs. Then by the 16th they get pretty cold.
  14. Terpeast
    No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change
  15. Terpeast
    Yeah I was half expecting to see it fall apart and get replaced by a SE ridge. Was anything but.
  16. Terpeast
    Checked the models… no change. I guess we’re either enjoying the trip down memory lane while we wait
  17. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don’t think the prime time starts until after 2/15 anyway. The week before that appears to more of a transition period
  18. Terpeast
    How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time
  19. Terpeast
  20. Terpeast
    Yeah, I'm less worried about the clock running out on us than I was a week ago, or even a few days ago. That 540 line is pretty close to us on the D12-15 ensembles... and that's geopotential height, not thicknesses!
  21. Terpeast
    Looking at analog matches centered on Feb 11 seems a tad too early. I'd want to see what the matches look like centered around Feb 18th or so.
  22. Terpeast
    Low of 26. Thick frost
  23. Terpeast
    Don’t look now but 0z gfs trended even further west with the TPV lobe and phases into a closed h5 low over delmarva. Clips cape cod. Very close to a coastal MA hit. Razor thin close. Continue this trend, it’s back alive for eastern folks. Unfortunately it’s on its own with only the icon for support. Other models way OTS
  24. Terpeast
    Looks awful
  25. Terpeast
    Final January average for mby: Jan 2024: 44/28 (~3 deg AN), 6.54” (wet!) Dec 2023: 51/33 (~5 deg AN), 6.55” (wet!) Noting these against my outlook. I was pretty confident that we’d have a wetter than normal winter and so far that is panning out. Not surprised by the warm december, but would have thought Jan would be closer to normal. That 78 degree day skewed us at least full degree upward. Take that day away, we'd be at only 2 degrees AN at roughly 44/26 Now let’s see what Feb brings!
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