Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January.
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
November turned out to be +3 and we’re looking at a strong -nao and colder temps in December, so things are on track so far. I would love to get a big snow in December but I’m not seeing deep cold with the aleutian ridge / -pna. If we do get a storm mid-Dec or earlier, the H5 maps over the pacific look like it might not be cold enough for an all snow event. I think this winter will be full of surprises, though. -
Yeah, it must be entirely automated. But still.
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Nice win, but that 9+ of added time was the most I’ve ever seen
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I likeeeee that…
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I would rather see a change to cold after the 15th in this case, because this early without a +pna we probably get cold rain even with a decent track and -nao
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I’ll start. I’m sure this isn’t the first time a good pattern showed on the models early winter and then fell apart when it was time for to to come to fruition. Have we seen similar mirages in Nov-Dec of recent winters?
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19 here
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Hope you feel better too. The kiddo has been going to daycare and we’ve all gotten sick 3 times in the last 2 months. Running through the list so fast (flu, cold, rsv…)
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Down to 28. This air is the driest (dews 0-5 deg) I’ve felt in decades. Had a nasty cough for a week, and the dry air is making it worse.
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26 again for the low
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Low 26, 32 now
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Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.
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Op GFS looks real amped, but the ensemble mean shows a more positively tilted trough. Might mean a colder and more suppressed solution.
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Hey, lookie here! I'm not the only one using the word "reload"! Ok, I'll shut up now.
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Hope your gut is correct! While I’m not bullish as you, I think we will see a classic N/W suburbs-favored winter that we haven’t seen in a while.
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Looks like 1.2” fell here. Decent rainer.
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Plain cold rain, 38
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Weather Station Recommendations
Terpeast replied to Northern FireWX Watcher's topic in Weather Marketplace
I'm thinking about getting a Weatherflow Tempest. Curious if they're having a black friday sale this year? -
Same. They don’t usually win on Monday night
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11/15/2022: Mood flakes (not counting as a T)
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Having come from the Bob Ryan / Doug Hill days (yes I’m showing my age)… I’m not familiar with the new generation of TV mets here, except I’ve seen Topper Shutt maybe a few times. Who are the best ones? Who busts the most? (Hopefully this Doug K fellow)
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Seeing a flake or two mixed in with light rain/sleet EDIT: now seeing a mix rain/snow/sleet. Didn’t need to look so hard
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Hey now, that’s NSFW. There’s kids here!
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I'll try not to use the word "reload" more than once for the winter. Oh wait... shit.
