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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Actually, I’m thinking the peak was Oct-Nov. Either SON or OND on the trimonthlies. ^ @GaWx beat me to it.
  2. Terpeast
    I’m calling it. This nino has already peaked. It’s time to start tracking h5 and individual waves!
  3. Terpeast
    Haven’t noticed any smoke here. Bottomed out at 32, but already up to 54 now
  4. Terpeast
    Anyone have a clue why OISST hasn’t updated on cyclonicwx?
  5. Terpeast
    That EPO spire is really going to give a -PDO a kick in the rear
  6. Terpeast
    Yeah I get that, but you kinda walked into it
  7. Terpeast
    Yep, and lets get psuhoffman on the board so we can have a blockbuster this year
  8. Terpeast
    I hope you're right @psuhoffman! You're a bit more bullish than I am, tbh. I hedged a bit downward because I think we'll see some SW troughing episodes (pac base state) that'll "steal" a couple of our chances. Also, one thing I did differently was to include 57-58 and 65-66 (as well as 76-77) but by warming them up a few degrees and thus reducing their snowfall totals, and that dragged down my overall snowfall prediction for the area. But I understand your trepidation and I have the same thing, especially after the recent MEI value came in way low. Agreed that it's good we're not going super nino, though.
  9. Terpeast
    I asked him that yesterday and he said it was too warm to amount more than maybe a trace
  10. Terpeast
    Following is +0.5 IOD on a 4 month lag before DJF for all years since 1960 regardless of ENSO. Same, but only for El Nino winters (only eliminated a couple of enso neutral years): BTW, this uses the DMI index. Not sure if that makes a difference.
  11. Terpeast
    Got access? Or still experimental?
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah if that new wwb holds east of the dateline we MAY get to 1.7 trimonthly
  13. Terpeast
    When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors.
  14. Terpeast
    Note most of those years listed above are el nino years. And this year we also have a neg QBO. So as hard as it's been to have a sustained -NAO winter, maybe this is the year we finally get one.
  15. Terpeast
    I noticed that blocking signal, too and addressed it in my outlook. I don’t know why we get a stronger signal on the atlantic side as a result of that -pdo/+enso pac combination, but it is there. And combine that with a -qbo.
  16. Terpeast
    To add, here’s @griteater’s excellent -pdo/+enso analysis. You’ll like this.
  17. Terpeast
    I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this.
  18. Terpeast
    High of 55 today
  19. Terpeast
    Yeah, we just need to give psuhoffman an inch to get him to put down the logbook.
  20. Terpeast
    Agreed. Recent sst trends are a sign that the atmosphere driving them is shifting to a more nino-like pattern (I know some will disagree)
  21. Terpeast
    Good things I'm seeing is the cooling trend N of Hawaii + warming GOA and off W coast. Also cooling west of the dateline that might help shift forcing slightly to the east. Also an interesting Atlantic tripole-ish trend. It's a much better look than it was a month ago. Also some warming off Japan isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Because if we want an Aleutian low, we want upstream ridging over Japan and thereabouts. We just don’t want an extreme marine heatwave mucking up the entire pac.
  22. Terpeast
    Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference.
  23. Terpeast
    Mid-late november climo
  24. Terpeast
    I hear what you’re saying, but I think our average already has gone down and is going down and there’s no going back. I still put high chances of a decent winter, with lower chances of either a ratter or a blockbuster. I still lean towards it being a good winter because we have a nino that isn’t too strong and this is the best chance for a KU hit we’ve had in years. Chances are, that big hit if its going to happen is late Jan through Feb.
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, an early inch really shouldn’t be too much to ask for near the md line away from the cities at relative elevation, even in a backloaded season.
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