Terpeast

First call: South of 66: 1-2” locally 3” Between 66 and 70: 2-4” North of 70: 4-7” Mountains: 5-10” Subject to change, hopefully with a last minute south trend. (But it COULD shift north)

Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? this is the ICON thread after all…

Good run, but careful not to get any further amped else we'll either have temp issues or the best banding goes north of DC

0.5" qpf from harrisonburg through winchester through Loudoun and MoCo

850mb low just south of us, precip almost ending in DMV. Not longer duration, but maybe a heavier thump

Heavier precip at 36, could be a longer duration than previous run Now I see an 850mb low

SLP further back and 2mb stronger at 33 Big difference at 500mb. Previous run was flat and diffuse, now it's a bit more amped and further west

30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds

Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly. If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong (again, it means nothing as far as verification)

Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models

Post it for everyone to see...

LWX has our low end being 1" and high end 5" in the dc/balt metros

Looks south of what it was before, unless I got my wires crossed up with another model. Still think forum wide is good for 2-4" and northern tier get better ratios

If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+

I'll happily take a 2-4er

23.7 low, heavy frost. 36 now

Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory.

Its certainly possible. March waves tend to be crazy amplified but timing with cold air will be tricky esepcially this year. I’d be happy with one more chance to play in the snow with my daughter and call it a winter, though. That’s where my head’s at now

Could be the last chance then that’d be all folks

Yep getting interesting. A little south trend won’t hurt. Wiggle room!

Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and - Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino. Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 1840-1880: neg for 40 years 1880-1910: pos for 30 years 1910-1925: brief neg for 15y 1924-1945: pos 20y 1945-1975: neg 30y 1975-1998: pos 23y 1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways