Terpeast

For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm

Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency

Wowwww

Fall line gonna be close

I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet.

Interesting. So how do we use that information when comparing the GEFS with op GFS and other models? Is the GEFS better at shorter lead times and less so at longer lead times (10-15+ days)? Or if the op GFS takes a different track than the GEFS mean, do we lean more on the op GFS?

Wait, is that really true?!

Light rain now

Agree. The panel brooklyn posted would be the likely cutter that sets up the 50 low under the block and the next wave could undercut the TPV. It’s a great setup. Loaded with potential What’s more, the 50/50 would also help sustain the block long enough for the potential to play out

I’ll record a trace as well

Oof. My TT still hasn’t updated

SLP track similar to 0z eps, except surface high is stronger on 12z

Better agreement with the op euro, at least with the fall line

Bout of legit light snow

White flakes sticking on deck furniture. Is that enough to count as a T?

Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs

I have to say the models did an excellent job with today’s passage of the 1/1 system. They locked into it more than a week ago. Let’s hope this accuracy holds.

Very very light snow falling. Ashburn

Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. ETA: WPC seems more bullish though, so we shall see

Gfs may have overcorrected with the SE trend (or it may be onto something) We have a little more wiggle room with cold air and the r/s/mix line, and that’s what we can say at this point. No complaints ( except maybe the Canadian)

We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out.

These colder and SE trends are exactly what I hoped to see. Still time though. Lead 1/4 sw just now coming onshore in SoCal, so maybe the newer runs have better data? and Happy New Year!

Tiny changes, r/s line wiggled a few miles southeast. Could be all it takes for this one! verbatim this looks like a pastebomb

Jan 96 is my #1. According to obs from others I should have seen sleet or at least dry slotted, but I never saw a pellet and snizzled all through the slot which lasted only a couple of hours, then it cranked up again all night and all morning with legit blizzard conditions. Also the coldest storm I’ve seen, and call me crazy I preferred it over the 2009-10 storms. I was upset that not only DCA but also IAD lowballed their totals in that storm because I got significantly more and wanted that on official record

At the risk of making a “water is wet” statement, I remember it being much colder, too. I have fond memories of the back to back 87 storms.