Terpeast

We’ll probably have to chase next year. I will be keeping an eye on where the best places are going to be.

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when): New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. So here's what it is showing for next winter now... 1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing. 2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like. 3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures. 4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase. My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead. Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

I don’t think we’re in a drought anymore, Will. I’m ready for sunny 60s/70s. Let’s see what severe weather season brings. Summer likely to be hotter and drier than the last few.

What does your method say?

Really bad situation on i-80 in ferocious blizzard conditions. I hope they all come out of this ok. They’re on their own right now http://newtoreno.com/ca-i80-webcams-sodasprings-wb.htm

That’s the best attitude we can have and carry through the year, and possibly through next winter.

The biggest irony of this season is we got our best wintry week not from a nino STJ pattern, but more of a nina-like Alaska ridge pattern (-EPO) combined with a short-lived greenland block (-NAO). If we’re going to play the “everyone zigs, we zag” game, we better hope that two things happen at the same time during next year’s nina - 1) pac ridge nudges poleward into alaska AND 2) we get greenland blocking to hold any cold air down But my wag is that we don’t get any blocking, and we get 2022-23 without the cold xmas week. I’d pay money to be wrong.

Not much difference, even though it felt much colder this year thanks to the mid-Jan wintry week with two SECS that trended the right way for us.

I get your frustration around the lack of discussion of what's causing the ridge/trough flip. I notice this more and more, but tbh I don't have any good answers to offer as to what's causing this. Really. Gun to head, I'll still say "I don't know." I hope we get some real answers either from yet another shift in the pattern, or from climate scientists smarter than us publishing new papers on this. We could blame the MJO, but I think that's too convenient of a target. It could be the +EAMT since all the cold has been on the other side. It could be the Atlantic, but I'm not buying it 100%. Again, I hope the answers become clearer to us sooner than later.

@psuhoffman I was just thinking that last year, CA mountains received record snowfall during a La Nina year, and now they are again getting record snowfall during an El Nino year. ENSO doesn’t seem to matter. I think that gives your posts about opposite pacific configurations giving the same western trough eastern ridge more validity than people seem to be giving it. I don’t know if this is caused by CC, or just part of a cycle. We used to have a persistent western ridge eastern trough for years while I was growing up here, and I thought that was a permanent fixture of north american climate. The opposite seems to be happening now, which makes me think it is more cyclical.

I miss reading sky-is-falling AFDs with incoming HECS. Reading the reno and sacramento ones brings back a lot of memories

Just not cold enough. In late march it gotta be dark blue or green.

How were you able to find a place to stay at short notice?

Interesting. I did see someone in the CT forum complaining that the snow under the death band was heavily rimed. He still got 40 inches. Btw, I was in one of the Buffalo LES events back in Dec 2001, one place got over 80" but where I was we "only" got 30-36". Kinda wild to see it go from 3 feet to barely an inch in just 15 minutes driving on I-90 east towards Rochester. The rest of the winter was crap, even up in Rochester.

That was the year SNE got Nemo. I hope one day I can experience what they did under that >50dbz death band. Or I can just go to the Sierras. Or to Buffalo

It was basin wide

If this still looks workable inside of 7 days, then I shall track, too

Part of me is rooting for a very strong nina to cool the oceans a tad, and hope for a few weeks of -EPO/-NAO. Just a couple/few weeks, then I’m wrapping it up as a winter.

That’s my thinking. If the MJO is strong in phases 4-6 in October, it would catch my interest. @psuhoffman We haven’t seen a classic sustained PNA+ ridge out west for so long. Every ridge that tried to set up west just kept getting bullied, toppled over us, and brings SER-like warmth to our area.

I guess it depends on which days. Sometimes what he says makes perfect sense and perfectly summarizes what was nagging in my mind and couldn’t put my finger on it. Other times, I’m like

In case the mods get pissed again about having to move posts - let me provide an easier solution: Simply change the name of this thread. You’re welcome.

That’s where I disagree. Both air AND water are drivers working in tandem, not just air ON water. It’s a two way street. The marine heat wave off Japan is exerting its own influence and a powerful one at that. Zoom in on Japan, you’ll see SSTa off the charts. Take a look, and tell me that isn’t having any effect on the atmospheric pattern.

I don’t think the extreme -pdo is permanent either, but it’s quite the hole to dig out of. Not even a borderline super nino could get us out of that, although it got close but then it collapsed in Feb. We at least did get two SECS in Jan and a minor event in Feb, and that’s got to count for something within a 72-73 analog in a warmer world.

One thing I’ll say about these LR charts is this. As long as we’re in a -PDO driven by the marine heat waves in the west pacific and off Japan, I would place no faith in LR charts no matter how good they may look.

I'm just the messenger. Look at where Fukushima is on Google Maps, and then compare that location against the warmest SST anomalies on those two CFS forecast maps @GaWx above.