Terpeast

Am with you on this. I’m surprised at the pushback as well, and pleasantly so at the guidance trends yesterday. We’re forgetting that 1/7 was depicted as a rainstorm with the 0 line all the way to the great lakes. This has indeed trended colder, and I’m hoping this trend continues.

I was too little to remember much of it, but my mom STILL talks about it to this day, and she’s lived through all the blizzards here including from 79 through 16. I think 83 was her favorite and still has pics of it.

And interesting to see a more pos tilt on that wave. As long as it doesn’t close off, it might delay the turn up north and keep i-95 in the game. Usually these things trend the other way

Yeah, that first system is just off CA about to enter the conus. I don’t know if sampling is a thing anymore like it was 10-15 years ago, but I think @Eskimo Joe mentioned it a page or two back

Just one run but with that gradient through my house… my front yard facing NW might get more snow than my rear yard

Euro was all rain east of 81 at 0z and before that, so even 12z while not ideal is a reverse trend vs the gfs

Gotcha, thanks!

Any notable trends on the euro?

From last night’s runs, I assume. It’s trended colder from 4+ days ago when it was depicted as all rain. So the actual verification might be somewhere in the middle. Too early to tell, but I’m not sold on this being a mostly snow event here. We don’t even have the first wave passing us yet, and that will partly determine the cold air setup here.

I’ll say this. Even if this particular event doesn’t pan out as an i-95 special, this should give us reason to feel good about the rest of the winter. The STJ is relentless and unloading its ammo with no end in sight. All we need is to get more cold air on top of us. And 1-2 moderate/big hits is all we need to reach climo, plus another hit to get above.

December has never been a big winter month for me growing up here. 2002-2010 was a massive fluke for Dec. Also the cryosphere delays the cold in the beginning while extending it at the end of met winter.

Also, noticed that the system is slower with less NS interaction. We want it to speed up a bit to catch the best cold air.

Maybe it’s different during a nino, but last year the ensembles had tracks biased too far SE at 5-8 day leads. They eventually corrected to the op tracks. We saw the ens move NW with the mean track already. The op is too far NW for a pure snow event along I-95, but NW of the fall line still in the game. Let’s root for the 1/4 system to go ape off the coast for a stronger 50/50

LWX AFD on the 1/4 system - not buying into a phased scenario. Maybe this just helps set us up for the next system The aforementioned shortwave over the Great Lakes will continue to dig southeastward on Thursday. Model guidance varies quite a bit with respect to the amplitude of this feature, and how it interacts with a southern stream disturbance located over the southeastern US. Solutions vary from the northern stream staying lower amplitude/to our north and not having any interaction at all with the southern stream disturbance, to becoming higher amplitude in nature, and coming close to phasing with the southern stream system. Probabilities from ensemble guidance favor a non-phasing scenario, with a weaker northern stream disturbance progressing nearby or overhead. This would yield some low end chances for a few rain or snow showers on Thursday, with most of the area remaining dry. If the systems were to phase, there could be a stronger coastal storm, but most solutions that have that scenario playing out, have it occurring further offshore. In either scenario, the northern stream system will drive a cold front through the area, potentially leading to some upslope snow Thursday night, and colder temperatures on Friday.

Yep, lets see if they converge on that. Probably wiggle waffle for a few days and then hone in at d4-5

Yeah, well I hope the gfs is right about having a cold high to the north

How are the thermals? I don't see much of a HP up north on that panel, so that strong of a signal makes me nervous about it being to warm for us (outside of the mountains)

Same page. I've been harping on having a vortex at the tip of the Aleutians instead of a ridge or a GOA low for months now. This is based on my MEI research, where the MEI stays below 1.2 we have a weaker Aleutian low further west compared to a strong GOA low with MEI above 1.2. This past December acted as if the MEI was above 1.2 with a GOA low with pac puke, and the horrible model runs yesterday "overcorrected" that with a nina-like aleutian ridge. Now it seems to be swinging back into the middle like a pendulum. We shall see if that "middle" is the true middle that we want, and if that does verify.

Gefs says 1/4-5 is the stronger system, but suppressed. Trended colder on 1/7 though. Remember when both systems were depicted to be too warm to snow not too long ago though

Wife and daughter just asked me when it’s gonna snow. I thought about the recent model runs, but I didn’t have the heart to tell them that I’m tracking something. I just said “when I see it snowing, I’ll tell you”

Yeah. And even if 1/4 doesn’t quite phase, it can still set us up for 1/7 as depicted by the gfs. Still way out though, I’ll start getting excited when we get it within 5 days

Nice to see 2 runs in a row for 1/7. But I wonder how close 1/4 is to something. Gfs doesn’t quite phase the two steams yet.

Wow... huge HUGE improvement in the Aleutian low strength and positioning. With a roll forward, we should see that produce western ridging.

And with a SSWE / weak SPV, and we have the potential to get sustained blocking not unlike this one

NS vort dug deeper for 1/4, but suppressed because the wave behind it is more weaker and thus more progressive, so less spacing. That adds to some uncertainty for the first event, which needs to be resolved to work out the details of the 1/7 event