Eduardo

That’s an astonishing stat! Amazing how much September has felt like a summer month since 2010.

11/20

On the LIRR heading east through Nassau now. Sky is bright and sunny to the north, but looks eerie and chaotic to the south....

Very very little. Mostly some distant lightning off to the south and a few claps of thunder in SW Suffolk.

Probably too early to speculate, but I am hoping it calms down some before the winter. That raging PAC jet decimated our snow weenie dreams last year....

LOL. We did very well three weeks ago, so I cannot complain. I also think we'll see some action in a few hours. Crossing my fingers that it's halfway interesting. I find that we do better when storms move in from the north than the west, but we'll see. Definitely a good soaking coming regardless.

Deep rolling thunder shaking my house in SW Suffolk. Still not much in the way of rain or wind though.

Was in Islip today for this one shopping and the store lost power and was home in Lindenhurst for the storm yesterday. Best two-day stretch for me in as long as I can remember!

I’m already psyched for it to flip positive just in time to spoil winter for the coast :-P

I remember a terrible, legit backdoor in early June 2015. In fact, I feel like early June backdoors have been common since then. Can anyone confirm?

This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI. I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood. Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years? I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank.

Yeah I live right along the South Shore in Lindenhurst. Mother Nature is paying us back for the good fortune she bestowed upon us since I moved back here from DC in 2013 (and for a few years preceding that, I take it). I must correct myself though. The 3.1" we saw in November before the changeover is actually slightly less than a majority of my seasonal total. Still.....blehhh...... Honestly, it's that time of year where the sun starts getting higher in the sky and I am ready for some quality bike-riding weather. Don't get me wrong, I'll get hyped about whatever bonus snow comes my way, but I am also excited about spring approaching. This winter's been a huge learning experience for me (and I hope for many others as well). I look forward to taking those lessons into next winter, which will hopefully be a rocking second-year Niño.....one that behaves as such....

Haha can confirm! 6.6 inches total for the season with November’s event constituting a bare majority of it.

Fail here. Raining steadily and the inch of slop we had before is disappearing fast!

Have just under an inch on the grass and car tops here in SW Suffolk with mostly sleet coming down and melting on the pavement. Hopefully, the rates pick up so that we can appreciably accumulate!

Switched to slushy white rain about 15 mins after I posted!

Pouring rain in SW Suffolk. Still awaiting a changeover (that hopefully materializes soon)!

2.5” in Lindenhurst. Went to sleep ar 4AM with it raining so I thought for sure we were getting skunked. Was a nice surprise to see everything covered! Now 5.7” on the season.

Still pouring rain here in SW Suffolk. Thinking my 4.2” seasonal total will remain steady for tonight....

Still just a plain, chilly rain here in Lindenhurst (SW Suffolk).

Yeah I’ve noticed this too. In 13-14 and 14-15, models consistently broke down the glorious -EPO, but on she raged....two of my favorite winters since they were good for retention snobs like me. I don’t know enough about computer modeling to understand what causes this. I’m guessing they must have some level of “continuity bias” built in, no?

Probably one of the most succinct "diagnoses" I've seen thus far, Chris. The relentless, raging PAC jet reminds me of 11-12 as well. I figured that the LR models eventually might be correct in their repeated insistence that the jet would subside given the different ENSO landscape this year. But clearly that has not at all come to pass and winter now seems all but over before it ever really got going. For now though, I am at a loss as to why the PAC pattern this year was so Niña-esque. Seems like, since the last "Super Niño," the PAC does not conform to ENSO-based expectations.....

Yeah I'm pretty much at the epicenter of the ugliness right beneath that 1" contour, although I've personally measured 3.8" for the season here in Lindenhurst. Still, blehhhhhhh. Took two nice road trips the past two weekends though--one up to Lake Placid, NY and another to Great Barrington, MA. Almost forgot what robust snowpack looks like. For anybody else who feels down and out over this disappointment-of-a-winter, I highly recommend a trip north if you are able! Absolutely beautiful up there!

Oddly narrow band of heavy rain traversing LI. Anyone know what gave rise to it? Radar signature almost resembles an outflow boundary akin to what we would see during the heart of sever season.